Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

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TropicalStormOtto
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv..#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
9Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - - - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
9Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 24.4n66.1w, 24.8n65.5w, 25.4n64.6w, 25.9n64.0w, 26.3n63.1w-26.8n62.3w, 26.8n62.3w-27.2n61.7w, 27.2n61.7w-27.8n60.8w, 27.8n60.8w-28.5n59.7w, ngd, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Well, the Unexpected Drama has quite exhausted me...
Until another day then.

Hi, Trauma.
Hope you have a tranquil night.

Take care, Kerry.

Be safe, all.


Hey Pottery!!
Bye Pottery!!
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I'm out to watch Formula One qualifying, then bed. Have a nice night everyone!
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Well, the Unexpected Drama has quite exhausted me...
Until another day then.

Hi, Trauma.
Hope you have a tranquil night.

Take care, Kerry.

Be safe, all.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Good morning traumaboyy! Haven't seen you here lately. Been on vacation?


Mornin Kerry....only visit here when i am at work and been dam buzy lately!!

Howz Elway??
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B&C, if that was intended for Rich..............
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Have a nice life! Later!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.


YO! Where do you think you're going?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.

????
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.


Why Rich?
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Quoting Grothar:


Blog needed a little comedy relief. Pot is not keeping up his end of the bargain here. He is always good for at least one good zap! He has left a few slip by him tonight.


He did let the wind out of my sails. But, I did ask for a report. I'm torn, now. I guess some humor keeps us sane, in the face of hardship. We all have our crosses to bear.
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Morning night shift....coffee is ready....hope all doing well!!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
At 10:10 AM I will be in church saying my prayers. :)

Good Plan.
I had not considered a time frame.
10:10/10/10/10 MUST mean SOMETHING...
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Thanks, pottery. It's alright if you keep it private.

:)
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Quoting Grothar:


Blog needed a little comedy relief. Pot is not keeping up his end of the bargain here. He is always good for at least one good zap! He has left a few slip by him tonight.

Sorry!
Will try to behave properly in future.
heheheheh
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And SST's will remain well above the threshold for Hurricane formation. I seem to recall a couple Major's this year and years past doing the ditty in sub par sst's.

SST's are only one piece of the puzzle.
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According to my Callendar, Sunday will be 10/10/10.
How come we have not been put on High Anxiety for this???
Surely computers will explode and planes will fall out of the sky like dried leaves, and we are all DOOM.

Has no one noticed????
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Quoting Grothar:


What row?


IDK what section or row yet, i'll let you know in the morning.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The infusion of cool air reached all the way down to the southern Carribean. Thus lower SST will result. I have been watching the western Carribean since Nicole left and convection has been way down. Therefore I do not expect any hurricanes from this area in the remainder of the season. 98L will not become a Mitch or Wilma.


Convection has been reduced due to the stalled trough off the east coast creating high shear in the region. Things will be back to normal soon, look at 98L, it's a sign of the change. Even the NHC states conditions will become more favorable in a day or two.
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524. 7544
Quoting RufusBaker:
will 98 see FL?


cmc says a short stay se fl

so maybe Link
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Good lord, I can hardly type, from laughing. Outstanding!


Blog needed a little comedy relief. Pot is not keeping up his end of the bargain here. He is always good for at least one good zap! He has left a few slip by him tonight.
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Quoting pottery:

Well, we had our share of heavy rains and some winds down here. Some areas lost roofs, some landslides and localized flooding.
But right now it is clear and looks like it will be that way for a while.
Drying out nicely, before the next onslaught...


Wow, our best wishes for those affected. A sobering reminder.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Oh just a guess lol. I will also be in attendance.


What row?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I am doing very well, thank you. I appreciate your input. A Goodself, back at ya! Hope the inclement weather is sparing you it's fury.

Well, we had our share of heavy rains and some winds down here. Some areas lost roofs, some landslides and localized flooding.
But right now it is clear and looks like it will be that way for a while.
Drying out nicely, before the next onslaught...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shear to drop 20 to 25 kts bound by area from the channel east to bahamas and from west cuba isle of youth n to se fla pens. in 24 hrs


Forecast for my area in Jupiter, FL is to be back to the east to southeast flow starting Monday. I was kinda enjoying the cool down however, it is only Oct 9th.
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Quoting Grothar:


Their updates from the current CIMSS, you really can't see them or are you pulling my walker??



Good lord, I can hardly type, from laughing. Outstanding!
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Quoting Grothar:


Who told you???


Oh just a guess lol. I will also be in attendance.
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Quoting pottery:

Excellent!
And your Goodself?



I am doing very well, thank you. I appreciate your input. A Goodself, back at ya! Hope the inclement weather is sparing you it's fury.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Sorry Grothar, I have to say, I can't see them either. Evening to you, Sir. Pottery, how goes it?


Their updates from the current CIMSS, you really can't see them or are you pulling my walker??
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514. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
5:30 AM IST October 9 2010
======================================

Subject: Low Pressure Area Over Bangladesh

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over Bangladesh moved northeastwards and weakened to low pressure area. Low Pressure Area, Former Depression BOB02-2010 lays centered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizorum and Tripura and neighborhood.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on this system from the India Meteorological Department
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The infusion of cool air reached all the way down to the southern Carribean. Thus lower SST will result. I have been watching the western Carribean since Nicole left and convection has been way down. Therefore I do not expect any hurricanes from this area in the remainder of the season. 98L will not become a Mitch or Wilma.

I have to agree with you on this.
But I will not say so, publicly....
heheheheh
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Quoting caneswatch:


I never argue with you lol. Going to a certain game tomorrow?


Who told you???
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Sorry Grothar, I have to say, I can't see them either. Evening to you, Sir. Pottery, how goes it?

Excellent!
And your Goodself?
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Latest Blog Update at 11:15PM CDT on Otto, AZ Hail & Tornadoes, Portlight and North Texas Weather:Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't argue with your elders.


I never argue with you lol. Going to a certain game tomorrow?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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