Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning, everyone. Hurricane happening in my house as I clean before my son comes home on Monday night.
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Quoting Keys99:
As 98 Moves North ( If it does) and maybe NE wont the Front and troff start to impart more shear on the system as it gets further North



The trough is being torn apart now. Otto has effectively lifted it away from the eastern seaboard and it is a frail remnant of what it was yesterday. Night low temp's here in north GOM last night were approx. 15 degrees warmer than the previous night, and daytime temp's were in the high 80's yesterday. The trough you are speaking of is gone, for the most part
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as far as I know stormwatcherCI HWRF is a Tropical model
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does the upper level wind forecast in 2 weeks for the northern GOM state 60-90 kt winds? I heard that from someone. That sounds a bit extreme to me but I am not sure. Basically he is rationalizing that there is no way Invest 98L can make it above South Florida regardless of the track the invest takes.
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Quoting reedzone:


Because you put life into a tropical system, you will be mocked and attacked on here.. Just go with the flow. The HWRF model could be right, think about Paloma and how she intensified, IN NOVEMBER!
Don't worry, I remember.
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Quoting IKE:


No...there different models.

If I was a tropical forecaster I would not mention the NAM model. It is not a tropical model.
Is the HWRF a tropical model ?
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Good Morning -
LOL - hummm IKE - you certainly got my attention first thing
Quoting IKE:
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....


comment edited - sorry Neapolitan - they play rough
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600. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Because you put life into a tropical system, you will be mocked and attacked on here.. Just go with the flow. The HWRF model could be right, think about Paloma and how she intensified, IN NOVEMBER!


Man...you need to calm down...way down. But...it's your style on here.

Have a good day everyone. Going to be productive and wash the bird-dodo off of my car.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
599. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The latest HWRF model (06Z) just came out and it is similar to the previous run and forecasts that this system will not really get going until Sunday night or Monday morning, but when it does, it rapidly intensifies.

Is this the NAM model ? IDK


No...there different models.

If I was a tropical forecaster I would not mention the NAM model. It is not a tropical model.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The latest HWRF model (06Z) just came out and it is similar to the previous run and forecasts that this system will not really get going until Sunday night or Monday morning, but when it does, it rapidly intensifies.

Is this the NAM model ? IDK


Because you put life into a tropical system, you will be mocked and attacked on here.. Just go with the flow. The HWRF model could be right, think about Paloma and how she intensified, IN NOVEMBER!
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Quoting IKE:


The NAM model? LOL.
The latest HWRF model (06Z) just came out and it is similar to the previous run and forecasts that this system will not really get going until Sunday night or Monday morning, but when it does, it rapidly intensifies.

Is this the NAM model ? IDK
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Quoting reedzone:


I still think there's a chance for at least Florida to be impacted by a storm. Climatology agrees with me. You can't just let your guard down when you see some fall air, things can happen, unexpected things. You wait and see, watch something scare the USA one more time this year.
Crown Weather mentions a possibility also.
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For those who keep posting over and over and over again day after day that the GOM is in the clear (especially the northern half) - We get it. Let's focus on our friends down in the Caribbean who is going to be impacted by one or two storms over the next 2-3 weeks.
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594. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


Crown Weather TWD for this morning.


The NAM model? LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crown Weather says one of the models is showing development on Monday and then for it to ramp up quickly.


I still think there's a chance for at least Florida to be impacted by a storm. Climatology agrees with me. You can't just let your guard down when you see some fall air, things can happen, unexpected things. You wait and see, watch something scare the USA one more time this year.
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Just saw on the news that the rescuers have broken through the ceiling of the area where the Chilean miners have been stuck since August 5. That's a long time; to remind WU folks of just how long, when they became trapped, TS Colin was regenerating 48 hours after being downgraded to a TD.

Here's to a quick and safe extraction of all those workers...
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I'm sorry I have to say this... Admin, that was plain rude blocking StSimonsIslandGAGuy comments for just saying he was leaving and why. Sorry, that was plain rude. Everything has changed non wunderground for the bad, we lost another good blogger.
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Quoting reedzone:
Morning everyone. All eyes on 98L, this has a slim chance at impacting South Florida. Again, Hurricane Season is NOT over and we do need to watch for late activity as well. The Caribbean and the open Atlantic is the place for about 2 or 3 more systems. Even in November, we can get a Hurricane, Ida proved that last year, even moved north.
Crown Weather says one of the models is showing development on Monday and then for it to ramp up quickly.
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Link


Crown Weather TWD for this morning.
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Morning everyone. All eyes on 98L, this has a slim chance at impacting South Florida. Again, Hurricane Season is NOT over and we do need to watch for late activity as well. The Caribbean and the open Atlantic is the place for about 2 or 3 more systems. Even in November, we can get a Hurricane, Ida proved that last year, even moved north.
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trying to post a cool otto photo using a droid phone,photos downloaded to wu, but theirs no image insert or link buttons???,anyone have any ideas if its possible froma droidphone??
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Link

Link
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101009 0600 101009 1800 101010 0600 101010 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 78.6W 14.5N 79.4W 14.8N 80.4W 15.4N 81.6W
BAMD 14.0N 78.6W 14.8N 79.1W 15.7N 79.6W 16.8N 79.9W
BAMM 14.0N 78.6W 14.6N 79.1W 15.4N 79.8W 16.3N 80.6W
LBAR 14.0N 78.6W 14.7N 78.8W 16.2N 79.3W 18.1N 79.5W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101011 0600 101012 0600 101013 0600 101014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 82.6W 16.9N 85.5W 18.0N 88.5W 16.9N 91.8W
BAMD 17.8N 80.1W 19.7N 81.3W 22.9N 81.8W 26.1N 74.3W
BAMM 17.2N 81.3W 19.0N 83.5W 21.2N 85.6W 22.5N 85.3W
LBAR 20.6N 79.0W 26.3N 74.7W 30.7N 63.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 46KTS 43KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 46KTS 43KTS
Looks like it only has it up to 47 kts.
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Thanks IKE The Graphs you Posted answered my question.
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Good Morning...
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Link

Link
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582. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
581. IKE
Quoting WeatherMum:
Morning IKE.


Good morning.

............................................

Here's the 3 day quantitative precipitation forecast for the lower 48, through Tuesday morning....




Days 4 and 5....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
580. IKE
Quoting Keys99:
As 98 Moves North ( If it does) and maybe NE wont the Front and troff start to impart more shear on the system as it gets further North


Here's the 120 hour shear from the GFS....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It's very good to see that the dry air is finally getting ready to leave our area...and good riddance. Talk about overstaying one's welcome. :-)

Hard to believe, but the lowest relative humidity levels in the entire CONUS this morning are at the southern tip of Florida now that the omega blocking pattern has released its grip and a more seasonal and wet pattern is coming back, even if only for a short while. I, for one, will be happy to be back to normal humidity levels and chances of rain, even if that does re-open us to the possibility of a landfalling TC. As I've said before, I'd rather deal with the slight chance of a direct TC strike than the disturbingly dessicating effects of a week's-long regional drought. Winter with its months of dry and cool air will be here soon enough; I'm not one to want to rush it, so I plan to enjoy the warmth and moisture while I can.

52 days left in the season, huh? Good thing we're on the downhill side of things; in the past 52 days, we've gone 12-7-5...
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hey guys boy 98L looks bad for us here in Grand Cayman if it follows intensity models



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Morning IKE.
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As 98 Moves North ( If it does) and maybe NE wont the Front and troff start to impart more shear on the system as it gets further North
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Quoting IKE:


Chances are slim when the next cold front comes through. Could be none for the next 10 days.

Somebody turned the water faucet off.


Thats why all the Red flag warnings are out for over half the state from the Lake North and Westward
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573. IKE
Quoting traumaboyy:


Mornin IKE!..could you please do a rain dance for us??


Chances are slim when the next cold front comes through. Could be none for the next 10 days.

Somebody turned the water faucet off.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....



Mornin IKE!..could you please do a rain dance for us??
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Miami NWS Discussion:

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FLA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT IN THE SHORT
TERM THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE REGION AS MAIN TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
LIFTS NORTHEAST. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BRINGING WITH IT LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE
EXTENDED GOING INTO THE WEEK AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO
INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND THIS DEPICTED BY THE GFS, ECMWF AND THE
NAM. THE SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS
WILL BEGIN LACKING THE ABILITY TO TRAP INTO MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF THE PENINSULA. SO
ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS IT IS LOOKING TO HAVE IN OUR VICINITY IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LOW
TOPPED SHRA IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALSO COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE
IS FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER MAJOR TROUGH WILL SET UP LATE
IN THE WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PUSH THIS MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT ONCE AGAIN.
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And on a side note

Florida's agriculture commissioner is warning that a lack of tropical storms is contributing to dry condition ripe for wildfires in the months ahead

Typical La Nina results for Florida

From the Miami Herald

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Key West Weather Says

THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL FLOW...PROVIDING LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
SQUASH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT A BIT OF COOLING ALOFT AND ELIMINATION OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROODING AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN
WILL BE ABLE TO DRAFT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE KEYS AREA.
THIS EVOLUTION JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GENTLE TO MODERATE AS
THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS CLOSER TO CUBA.
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566. IKE
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I agree with you. The dry season is in full force. Not to say that there won't be a change in the pattern 10 days from now but for now the pattern looks like we're finally out of the woods!


If you live along the northern GOM, I don't think we were ever in the woods in 2010. From north of Brownsville, TX. all the way to Fort Myers, FL.

GFS...day 7....168 hours....




ECMWF...day 7....168 hours....



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....


I agree with you. The dry season is in full force. Not to say that there won't be a change in the pattern 10 days from now but for now the pattern looks like we might be out of the woods!
Shields up!!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The handles IHHEOTBS/Hauntstown/Angrypartsguy/Tacomaman/PSLCaneVet/unruly/toddluck/BreadandCircuses/Legion/Richl andStrangler/StormyGace/NavarreMark and others stole my pictures and put them on gay sex and escort sites like gay.com/MANHUNT/adam4adam/recon with all sorts of kinky additions to the ads, that I'm into scat and whatnot, and also that I'm HIV+ and like bareback. Just too damn much. Goodbye.

Man up guy, change your avatar pic and stay in. If you leave they win. It would be exactly what they want. They don't have a life so they want to destroy what other people enjoy. Don't allow it. Your comments are very valued here, don't let them win.
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563. IKE
Shields up! Odds of a major hitting the lower 48 are goin' down.

52 days to go...131st day of the season.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Somebody is playing a joke on you. No way all those people could be together in a conspiracy. B&C was here a little while ago. Maybe he can shed some light.


They can be if many of them are one and the same. (The name "Legion" familiar to any of you Bible readers?)

Some troll with an inferiority complex, knowing he lacks the brains and talent to add anything substantive to the world in general or this blog in particular, lashes out the only way his immature and dark little mind will allow him: by striking out at those who do have those brains and that talent. He figures that since he's unable to elevate himself, he'll do the next best thing: try to bring down others better than him.

It's all very sad, really, that Rich has been targeted by this "many as one" multi. Good-natured ribbing over forecasting skills is one thing; slander, libel, theft, sabotage, and character assasination are quite another.

Petty, pathetic, lonely, sad little cyber-terrorists have always been the scourge of the internet. It'd be nice were they ever to get a life or a clue, but, unfortunately, that's not likely to happen.

Pity...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Leaving wunderground permanently. Goodbye, all.



Wtf. Really ? that's awful.
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test
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TropicalStormOtto
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv..#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
9Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
9Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - - - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
9Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 24.4n66.1w, 24.8n65.5w, 25.4n64.6w, 25.9n64.0w, 26.3n63.1w-26.8n62.3w, 26.8n62.3w-27.2n61.7w, 27.2n61.7w-27.8n60.8w, 27.8n60.8w-28.5n59.7w, ngd, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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