Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:
people have been laughing at me for saying the season is over, and no hurricanes will make landfall in the southeast U.S. for the rest of the season... Keep on laughing, but as time passes, you bashers are just all the more grasping at straws. I know some of you want to see a hurricane ruin millions of lives, but I for one will have no part in such cynical thinking. I am glad to see the obvious that another season has gone by without any problems here in central Florida.

I absolutely love storms, and the power of hurricanes it just awesome, but unless you under 13 years old, there's no excuse for wishing hurricanes to hit and destroy lives, yes their power is awesome, but they do destroy. If one makes landfall in my area, I will be pumped to chase it for certain. But I certainly won't wish for it to hit, also realizing how many lives it will ruin.

You can never say never for sure, yes there's an outside chance a hurricane still make landfall before the season is over. It would be foolish to say it is impossible. But right now it is a very high improbability. Just with basic meteorological analysis, this can easily be determined...


For the US -- sure, the season might very well be over. However, given the fact there's a hurricane out in the Atlantic I doubt its anywhere near over.
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Otto up to 80 mph.

Might make a run for Category 2.

AL, 17, 2010100818, , BEST, 0, 263N, 631W, 70, 977
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Is there any Winter Storm Season Blog???
YES i have a winter /severe blog running from nov 1 till april 15 at the moment i am in the transition phase of my blog as we wind down with cane season here is a link

Link
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100. xcool
noo hurricane hit usa this years .that bad news for next years.
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17L/H/O/C2
MARK
26.85N/62.76W


THREAT TO SHIPPING ONLY
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Where did everyone go? Ive never seen the blog this slow!
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Quoting kanc2001:
looks like we are done here, see you guys in June

cheers!


Is there any Winter Storm Season Blog???
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Well, it seems that what you've been saying for more than a week, sound like the real.... At least from what we have seen... that Dry air trough in the Conus changed the whole season scenario and is pointing to the end of the season (at least for the US)....

Quoting Jedkins01:
people have been laughing at me for saying the season is over, and no hurricanes will make landfall in the southeast U.S. for the rest of the season... Keep on laughing, but as time passes, you bashers are just all the more grasping at straws. I know some of you want to see a hurricane ruin millions of lives, but I for one will have no part in such cynical thinking. I am glad to see the obvious that another season has gone by without any problems here in central Florida.

I absolutely love storms, and the power of hurricanes it just awesome, but unless you under 13 years old, there's no excuse for wishing hurricanes to hit and destroy lives, yes their power is awesome, but they do destroy. If one makes landfall in my area, I will be pumped to chase it for certain. But I certainly won't wish for it to hit, also realizing how many lives it will ruin.

You can never say never for sure, yes there's an outside chance a hurricane still make landfall before the season is over. It would be foolish to say it is impossible. But right now it is a very high improbability. Just with basic meteorological analysis, this can easily be determined...
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How can anyone say the season is over when there is a hurricane in the Atlantic right now??? Sheesh!!!!
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looks like we are done here, see you guys in June

cheers!
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Haven't posted here in a while.
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Feels like summer has returned in Lower Alabama. Hot!!
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people have been laughing at me for saying the season is over, and no hurricanes will make landfall in the southeast U.S. for the rest of the season... Keep on laughing, but as time passes, you bashers are just all the more grasping at straws. I know some of you want to see a hurricane ruin millions of lives, but I for one will have no part in such cynical thinking. I am glad to see the obvious that another season has gone by without any problems here in central Florida.

I absolutely love storms, and the power of hurricanes it just awesome, but unless you under 13 years old, there's no excuse for wishing hurricanes to hit and destroy lives, yes their power is awesome, but they do destroy. If one makes landfall in my area, I will be pumped to chase it for certain. But I certainly won't wish for it to hit, also realizing how many lives it will ruin.

You can never say never for sure, yes there's an outside chance a hurricane still make landfall before the season is over. It would be foolish to say it is impossible. But right now it is a very high improbability. Just with basic meteorological analysis, this can easily be determined...
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88. IKE
HPC day 6...



Day 7...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Todays's ECMWF Animation No longer develops AOI in SW Caribbean - Yesterday it did develop it moving NE over Cuba....

Take a look Link

As per Dr. JMasters comment:

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.
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TropicalStormOtto
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.7n67.8w - - 50knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.6n67.9w
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h __ 55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 23.7n67.8w, 24.0n67.6w, 23.9n67.0w, 24.1n66.6w, 24.4n66.1w-24.8n65.5w, 24.8n65.5w-25.4n64.6w, 25.4n64.6w-25.9n64.0w, 25.9n64.0w-26.3n63.1w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
I think the AOI in SW Caribbean is lacking in heavy convection, but its overall structure and circulation is becoming better defined, I personally think it will eventually become Paula, but as to where it will track I just don't know.
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Quoting FLstormwarning:
On goes the AC in C FL. Heat is now making a return. Not as humid YET but by this time next week we will be wishing for the cool air again.


82 degrees here in my area of central Fl, but humidity is only 39%. Very dry, and really unusual. Mornings have been in the 40s and 50s.

But, this year has been unusual. I had sleet and snow in January.
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Sorry for my English, missed a "comma",,

Contrary to Hurricne Tip, this was....

And really TS Marco broke the record as the most compact....


Quoting aspectre:
Typhoon Tip has never been mentioned as an example of compactness.
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Deleted a semi"correction" that arose from misreading a comment.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Link to many animated charts...

Link
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Another animation - GFS Precipitable Column Water US

Take a look

Link
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Take a look GFS Column Water on the US
Link

Actual US "Precipitable water"


96 hours

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Seems like Otto's track can end "out of the chart"....

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73. IKE
120 hour 12Z ECMWF....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting clwstmchasr:


It can't hold forever but I can never remember this long of a period in late Sept to early Oct with it being so dry. I love the lower humidity. That's why I still think there is a chance but it is lessening and if it were to happen the timing with the weather systems are going to have to come together just perfectly at the right time.


Lets hope you are right. At the beginning of the season I was very concerned for CONUS with all the predictions of a busy season. We need to get through a maybe eight weeks before I start donating my hurricane food items to the local food bank.
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From Wikipedia - Contrary to Hurricne Tip this was the most compact hurricane

Cyclone Tracy (pronounced /ˈsaɪkloʊn ˈtreɪsi/[1]) was a tropical cyclone that devastated the city of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day, 1974. It is the most compact hurricane or equivalent-strength tropical cyclone on record in the Australian basin, with gale-force winds extending only 48 kilometres (30 mi) from the centre and was the most compact system worldwide until 2008 when Tropical Storm Marco of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season broke the record, with gale-force winds extending only 19 kilometres (12 mi) from the centre.[2][3] After forming over the Arafura Sea, the storm moved southwards and affected the city with Category 4 winds on the Australian cyclone intensity scale, while there is evidence to suggest that it had reached Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale when it made landfall.[4]
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Interesting info. from Wikipedia -diameter 1380 mi.



Typhoon Tip (international designation: 7920, JTWC designation: 23W) was the largest and most intense tropical cyclone on record. The nineteenth tropical storm and twelfth typhoon of the 1979 Pacific typhoon season, Tip developed out of a disturbance in the monsoon trough on October 4 near Pohnpei. Initially, a tropical storm to its northwest hindered the development and motion of Tip, though after it tracked further north Tip was able to intensify. After passing Guam, it rapidly intensified and reached peak winds of 305 km/h (190 mph)[nb 1] and a worldwide record low sea-level pressure of 870 mbar (hPa, 25.69 inHg) on October 12. At its peak strength, it was also the largest tropical cyclone on record with a diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi). It slowly weakened as it continued west-northwestward, and later turned to the northeast under the influence of an approaching trough. Tip made landfall on southern Japan on October 19, and became an extratropical cyclone shortly thereafter.
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Quoting aspectre:
39 KeysieLife "I've tried researching, but haven't found anything that has "circled-back" "

Hurricane Jeanne 2004 - - - - - - - - - - Hurricane Ivan 2004

Use hurricane looped back as your search terms
Thank you for that and sorry for the confusion to my question.

What I meant was, has a storm, that originates in the Carib, ever crossed the ATL towards Africa, then tracked back across to the Carib/US?

This question is in relation to Otto's track. The NHC track shows it curving south at the end of the run.

Is it possible that it could do an about-face and come back across as a different wave?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Talk about a wall of dry air!

And that dry air is holding firm. I really thought that the GOM was ripe for one strong hurricane and one TS in October but I never anticipated such an early season strong front to dive all the way down into the NW Caribbean and hold the dry air for so long. It still may happen but as each day passes the threat becomes less and less.


Is this more common later in the Fall\Winter? It just seems like this is the longest and dryest weather pattern I've experienced in the FL panhandle area at least since I've been living here (since '93).
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The TW in the ATL looks more interesting than the disturbance in the Caribbean.
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Political blog is down the hall. We don't want it here on a weather blog.
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 13N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 18N75W TO THE LOW CENTER TO PANAMA
NEAR 9N79W...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION...
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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