Hurricane Otto's deluge continues; world extreme heat record of 136.4°F bogus?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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The deluge continues over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto, which is bringing a fourth straight day of heavy rains. Otto is the eighth hurricane of this very active 2010 hurricane season; our tally now stands at 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Otto's rains have caused a fair degree of trouble in the islands. According to Wikipedia, Heavy downpours in the U.S. Virgin Islands caused flooding across several local roads. In Saint Croix, a roadway section leading into Enfield Green collapsed on the night of October 6, temporarily cutting the south-side neighborhood off to vehicle traffic until a makeshift roadway through Carlton Estate was created the next day. On the island's North Shore in La Vallee, landslides and localized flooding in low-lying areas created some issues. There were no reports of major damage, however, and the roads remained passable. Torrential floods across the British Virgin Islands toppled several cars and caused extensive damage to utility lines and drainage pipes; dozens of people (mostly in Road Town) were left without power and water. An estimated 100 homes were flooded in Saint Lucia, and a fishing village on the island's east coast was declared a disaster zone. Schools, businesses and government offices across all of the Virgin Islands and in Saint Kitts and Nevis were closed until further notice.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rainfalls fell across the municipality of Utuado on October 7. As a result, a road to a neighborhood was made inaccessible after being severely damaged by gushing waters when parts of the Arecibo River overflowed. That same day, a landslide dragged away a communication post along the road and made it impossible for larger vehicles--including ambulances--to access the site. Meanwhile, fourteen families in the municipality of Ponce were cut off from communication because of several landslides. A residence alongside a road suffered significant damage and its inhabitants were forced to evacuate. Furthermore, a district in Cayey was isolated after a bridge collapsed, while burst riverbanks caused flooding across streets, trapping dozens of families in their homes. Across the island, 40 roads were closed due to torrential rainfall, and 19 streets had at least one lane closed.



Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Otto.

Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and flash flood warnings are posted on these islands through tonight. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized storm with an expanding Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds covering the center. Infrared satellite imagery shows a region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with the suggestion of a warm spot--an eye--forming. Otto should continue to intensify until Saturday morning, when wind shear will quickly rise to a very high 30+ knots.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this week shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Western Caribbean disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua, has only a small amount of intense thunderstorms, but is showing some spin. The disturbance is nearly stationary, and is under a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Some dry air in the Western Caribbean is interfering with development. I expect the storm will begin to build some significant heavy thunderstorms over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression, but it does have some potential for slow development over the next few days, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The ECMWF model has the disturbance drifting northward next week and crossing Central Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday. Most of the other models keep the storms confined to the Caribbean.

A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

Jeff Masters

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Poll Time:
In the Next TWO will pre-98L be at...
(A) Near 0%
(B) 10%
(C) 20%
(D) 30%
(E) More than 30%
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
I must say the NHC did an excellent job with Otto, from predicting its subtropical status to tropical transition with hurricane potential and also its track, Kudos to the NHC!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I said last night I thought Otto would make at 115mph for a short time, I still do.

Looks like the AOI in the SW caribbean is organizing a bit more and drifting NNW. Will it be back at 20-30% at 8pm or remain at 10%?


In the last two frames of Otto's Rainbow IR Loop, he looks to be about to pop a true eye at about 27.5N/61.9W. If that continues, yes, he could possibly make Cat 3 status tonight, though Cat 2 is probably more likely.

Too, 850mb vorticity is tightening up nicely where the Caribbean AOI is centered. NHC may wait a bit longer, as is their prerogative, but I really wouldn't be surprised at all to see ATCF create an invest (98L) this evening or tomorrow morning. (And maybe TD 18 by Sunday or Monday.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we guys here and at the met office here are watching pre-98L very closely

Hey wunderkid, how are ya? I'm watching it closely also, you work at the met office?
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we guys here and at the met office here are watching pre-98L very closely
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201. 7544
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Still a ton of vorticity in the SW Carib. I'm surprised the models are so backed off on not developing something there.


cmc likes it lol

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

I totally agree. Most of the global guidance doesn't even want to touch this at the moment. That could change soon though if it ever starts to get more organized & begins to wrap some convection around a future closed-off COC.

I agree also, I think the experts are really hung up on models just a little too much, JMO though!
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I said last night I thought Otto would make at 115mph for a short time, I still do.

Looks like the AOI in the SW caribbean is organizing a bit more and drifting NNW. Will it be back at 20-30% at 8pm or remain at 10%?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Oto could make it to the Canerie Islands. I don't think they have had a direct hit in modern times
This was the only thing I found on it.


Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Delta
22 - 28 November 2005

Jack Beven
National Hurricane Center
14 February 2006


Delta was a late-season tropical storm of subtropical origin. After losing tropical characteristics, the cyclone caused casualties and storm- to hurricane-force winds in the Canary Islands.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
23:30 PM IST October 8 2010
======================================

Subject: Depression Over Bangladesh

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over Bangladesh moved north-northeastwards and lays centered over Bangladesh about 140 kms northwestward of Agartala.

The system would move northeastwards and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during next 12 hrs.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
850mb Vort
Still a ton of vorticity in the SW Carib. I'm surprised the models are so backed off on not developing something there.
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Since you brought up post-season analysis, I still remember in 2005 when the NHC admitted they missed a subtropical storm in early October. If that would have received a name, it would have pushed all the storms behind it back a name, thus Wilma would have been named Alpha. I find that very fitting, with Alpha meaning first, or most significant. Oh well :~)
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Looks like nothing's changed up in HERE! Whew!
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Guess you didn't understand the concept of discussion. Get over yourself.

Incidentally - with a join date of yesterday, what would you have known about the situation anyway? Circumventing maybe?
I chose to ignore him. Trying to start an argument with someone I think with nothing useful to say whatsoever.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
this post from the previous blog...
637. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:56 PM GMT on October 08, 2010 Hide this comment.
In my opinion they will re-evaluate:

Alex to 115 mph......agree

Earl to 150/155 mph.....agree

Hermine to 70/75 mph.....agree

Igor to 160 mph.....agree

i personally say hermine was stronger than the nhc said at landfall....i say she briefly hit hurricane status right at landfall....cause four hours later she hit my area with 70 mph gusts tells you she was a 70 mph ts over us at that time.Also just to north a 73 mph gust was reported as well.


And also if you looked on radar at landfall you could see an eye that just formed, kind of reminds me of cindy in 05.
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SAB supports a 90 mph hurricane..
08/1745 UTC 26.0N 63.1W T4.5/4.5 OTTO -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting FLstormwarning:


The only 2 knuckle heads I see dragging this oout is you and StormwatcherCI. It was a joke as i said before so get over it.


Guess you didn't understand the concept of discussion. Get over yourself.

Incidentally - with a join date of yesterday, what would you have known about the situation anyway? Circumventing maybe?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
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176. 7544
Quoting whipster:


Agree, nothing but fish storms from now on...I'll stick a "toe" back in here next year, unless the AGW people start frothing. Good year, good day.


maybe not

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do you every make any "really" useful posts?


Actually I find it quite informative.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
What effect will it have (if any) in the end of the season???
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I give Hurricane Otto a 55% chance of making it to Category 2 status:

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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormOtto
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h __ 55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 24.0n67.6w, 23.9n67.0w, 24.1n66.6w, 24.4n66.1w, 24.8n65.5w-25.4n64.6w, 25.4n64.6w-25.9n64.0w, 25.9n64.0w-26.3n63.1w, 26.3n63.1w-26.8n62.3w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours


Do you every make any "really" useful posts?
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Think that my green golf joke is going to ban me.... it was removed....
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am sorry, but no thank you..I have tee times Monday at 938 am
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Rains been going down. The strongest hit in the VI.. We have collapsed bridges in rural areas, flooded homes and rivers and big traffic jams due to some car accidents....

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What's the latest on damage in Puerto Rico from all the rain?
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TropicalStormOtto
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
HurricaneOtto
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 65knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF *60knots
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
8Oct 06pmGMT - - 26.3n63.1w - - 70knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09pmGMT - - 26.8n62.3w - - 80mph - - - 976mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the numbers
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h __ 55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 24.0n67.6w, 23.9n67.0w, 24.1n66.6w, 24.4n66.1w, 24.8n65.5w-25.4n64.6w, 25.4n64.6w-25.9n64.0w, 25.9n64.0w-26.3n63.1w, 26.3n63.1w-26.8n62.3w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting sunlinepr:
Big One..


I am sorry, but no thank you..I have tee times Monday at 938 am
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Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kanc2001:
looks like we are done here, see you guys in June

cheers!


Agree, nothing but fish storms from now on...I'll stick a "toe" back in here next year, unless the AGW people start frothing. Good year, good day.
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Big One..
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Nice storm heading for the Pacific NW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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