Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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1014. cat5hurricane
1:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Unless this next cold front the middle of next week brings some rain, it may stay dry for at least the next 10 days.

Exactly. And I would not be a bit suprised if that played out.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
1013. IKE
1:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I noticed that this morning. Bone dry for much of the Eastern CONUS.


Unless this next cold front the middle of next week brings some rain, it may stay dry for at least the next 10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1012. Neapolitan
1:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13731
1011. cat5hurricane
1:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Five day precipitation from today through next Tuesday....


I noticed that this morning. Bone dry for much of the Eastern CONUS.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
1010. IKE
1:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Five day precipitation from today through next Tuesday....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1009. oracle28
1:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Jax82:
In case anyone wonders if their name will be a storm in 2011 :)

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney


I'd like to go ahead and predict that September 2011 will be one of the busiest months for tropical activity next year.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
1008. cat5hurricane
1:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Jax82:
In case anyone wonders if their name will be a storm in 2011 :)

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
LOL. Not mine but several siblings. Thnx for posting though.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
1007. cat5hurricane
1:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
1006. Jax82
1:31 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
In case anyone wonders if their name will be a storm in 2011 :)

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1004. splash3392
1:29 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Good Morning Everyone. Thanks Ike that sounds wonderful. We're heading out to Tampa Bay and parts south to anchor out for the weekend. Should be nice weather! Yeah!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 645
1003. Jeff9642
1:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
I'm thinkin the future Paula will have a FL impact!
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1002. cat5hurricane
1:28 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
508 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-080300-
/O.CON.KJAX.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-101008T0300Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
508 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WILL PROMOTE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING AND THIS EVENING THAT
WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LYING AREAS AT THE COAST ESPECIALLY NEAR DOCKS
AND RAMPS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
FERNANDINA BEACH.

LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDE
FERNANDINA BEACH...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND AND ALSO BETWEEN ST
AUGUSTINE BEACH AND FLAGLER BEACH.

HIGH TIDES ON THURSDAY AT SELECTED LOCATIONS...

ST SIMONS ISLAND...819 AM AND 838 PM. FERNANDINA BEACH...853 AM
AND 914 PM. MAYPORT...842 TODAY AND 901 PM. ST AUGUSTINE BEACH...
836 AM AND 856 PM.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT.

$$
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
1001. Orcasystems
1:27 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Morning all ;)

Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
1000. cat5hurricane
1:27 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
999. Jeff9642
1:27 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Good Morning all, looks like FL is in the clear again today! Maybe not in the next few weeks as models suggest a FL hit!!
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
998. cat5hurricane
1:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
996. IKE
1:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Tampa,FL. long-term....

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION ALOFT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
995. rmbjoe1954
1:21 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Good Morning,

I see we have that area in the SW Caribbean as an AOI. There is also that wave approachoing the islands in the CATL that appears can become formidable in a few days.

The jet stream will move northward- that means the heat will be back for south Florida- plus some tropical weather?
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
994. cat5hurricane
1:19 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Here we go

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
993. reedzone
1:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Convection has formed over the center of Otto. The NHC should do the right thing at 11 a.m. and declare this fully Tropical.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7432
992. Bordonaro
1:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Otto is taking on a more tropical appearance. By 5pm today, he should be a tropical storm :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
991. cat5hurricane
1:11 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
990. weaverwxman
1:10 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
gm wu bloggers a cold 67 at my home in west broward this am kids at bus stom with sweatshirts and jackets.... LOL winter has arrived for a day or two..
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
989. Relix
1:10 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting PRweathercenter:
very interesting, how's the weather on the north coast? Saludos!!


Cloudy, it was raining heavily overnight. A few rivers have already gone past their flood levels including La Plata. And there is more rain coming. Can't imagine what would happen if we got the rain the smaller islands got. We would be swimming right now
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
988. MahFL
1:08 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, I agree that he's definitely fully tropical, and will be listed as such by the NHC no later than 11AM. I just hadn't seen any official re-classification...


We don't need no stinking official, we rulz...lol..............just kidding.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
987. cat5hurricane
1:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TD by Saturday?

Could be. NHC has it at 10% but it's not expected to be steered a whole lot. We'll see...
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
986. Neapolitan
1:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting MahFL:


I saw it on the sat pic, convection is now over the center.


Oh, I agree that he's definitely fully tropical, and will be listed as such by the NHC no later than 11AM. I just hadn't seen any official re-classification...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13731
985. MahFL
1:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Where did you see that? ATCF just out still says he's subtropical:

AL, 17, 2010100712, , BEST, 0, 236N, 683W, 50, 992, SS, 50, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1007, 325, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OTTO, D,


I saw it on the sat pic, convection is now over the center.

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
984. PRweathercenter
1:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Relix:
There are two disturbances in the middle of the Atlantic, one in the Center and another to the East. Center one is looking good. European Model wanted to turn this into a storm crossing PR, now puts it as a strong tropical wave crossing us. Wave behind has no model support I think
very interesting, how's the weather on the north coast? Saludos!!
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
983. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:03 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Julia last month:



Alex in the beginning:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
982. cat5hurricane
1:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
SHIPS intensity run down considerably from last.

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
981. Neapolitan
1:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting MahFL:
Otto just went tropical.


Where did you see that? ATCF just out still says he's subtropical:

AL, 17, 2010100712, , BEST, 0, 236N, 683W, 50, 992, SS, 50, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1007, 325, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OTTO, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13731
980. kmanislander
1:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good morning. 2.23 inches since midnight quite a bit. I don't think the entire SE CONUS if projected to have that in the next week!


LOL. Now up to 2.36 !
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979. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
TD by Saturday?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
978. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2010


Several 35 mph wind barbs in the W Caribbean wave
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
977. cat5hurricane
1:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
976. Relix
12:59 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
There are two disturbances in the middle of the Atlantic, one in the Center and another to the East. Center one is looking good. European Model wanted to turn this into a storm crossing PR, now puts it as a strong tropical wave crossing us. Wave behind has no model support I think
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975. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:59 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
What the heck?!?!?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
974. MahFL
12:58 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Otto just went tropical.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
973. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:57 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
XX/AOI/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55538
972. cat5hurricane
12:55 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Another wet and windy day in the NW Caribbean but surface pressures at Grand Cayman are relatively high at 1010.6 mbs and rising rapidly. To our South buoy 42057 has a pressure of 1008 and steady.

Winds sustained out of the N generally around 18 mph gusting into the 20s. Very heavy rain now with 2.23 inches since midnight.

This is the time of year to watch what happens on the tail end of a cold front. Vorticity at 5000 feet fairly strong in this region and holding.

Good morning. 2.23 inches since midnight quite a bit. I don't think the entire SE CONUS if projected to have that in the next week!
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
971. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:52 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Alex - 110 mph
Bonnie - 40 mph
Colin - 60 mph
Danielle - 135 mph
Earl - 145 mph
Fiona - 65 mph
Gaston - 40 mph
Hermine - 65 mph
Igor - 155 mph
Julia - 135 mph
Karl - 120 mph
Lisa - 80 mph
Matthew - 60 mph
Nicole - 40 mph
Otto - Active
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
970. cat5hurricane
12:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Predictions for the day:

1) Otto, despite looking anemic at the moment, will continue his transition to fully tropical later today (probably this morning), along with further strengthening;

2) Developmental odds on the newly-hatched Caribbean AOI will be raised (while a new low-percentage AOI may form in the warm waters of the central Atlantic around 10N/45-50W);

3) The blog will be full of numerous posts from those proclaiming a) the season "over" (despite the fact that it's obviously not, since, you know, there's currently an active, named TC); b) the season was a bust because only Mexicans died and/or no large American cities were destroyed; c) winter is here; d) the NHC should be investigated by Congress for all the "spurious" lows they classified and named just so they could justify their jobs; e) the GOM is too cold for tropical weather; f) the blog is boring; g) only themselves as above reproach for an unsuccesful forecast. while all others are fair game.

FWIW: it's warmer in northern locales such as Great Falls, Montana, and Minot, North Dakota than it is in north central Florida this morning thanks to the now vanishing omega blocking pattern that's been in place for a week.

Oh, yeah: good morning! ;-)

Good morning. That's pretty shocking about central FL being colder than Great Falls & Minot.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
969. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:50 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Predictions for the day:

1) Otto, despite looking anemic at the moment, will continue his transition to fully tropical later today (probably this morning), along with further strengthening;

2) Developmental odds on the newly-hatched Caribbean AOI will be raised (while a new low-percentage AOI may form in the warm waters of the central Atlantic around 10N/45-50W);

3) The blog will be full of numerous posts from those proclaiming a) the season "over" (despite the fact that it's obviously not, since, you know, there's currently an active, named TC); b) the season was a bust because only Mexicans died and/or no large American cities were destroyed; c) winter is here; d) the NHC should be investigated by Congress for all the "spurious" lows they classified and named just so they could justify their jobs; e) the GOM is too cold for tropical weather; f) the blog is boring; g) only themselves as above reproach for an unsuccesful forecast. while all others are fair game.

FWIW: it's warmer in northern locales such as Great Falls, Montana, and Minot, North Dakota than it is in north central Florida this morning thanks to the now vanishing omega blocking pattern that's been in place for a week.

Oh, yeah: good morning! ;-)


Post #966: Graphics :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
968. kmanislander
12:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
967. Neapolitan
12:47 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Predictions for the day:

1) Otto, despite looking anemic at the moment, will continue his transition to fully tropical later today (probably this morning), along with further strengthening;

2) Developmental odds on the newly-hatched Caribbean AOI will be raised (while a new low-percentage AOI may form in the warm waters of the central Atlantic around 10N/45-50W);

3) The blog will be full of numerous posts from those proclaiming a) the season "over" (despite the fact that it's obviously not, since, you know, there's currently an active, named TC); b) the season was a bust because only Mexicans died and/or no large American cities were destroyed; c) winter is here; d) the NHC should be investigated by Congress for all the "spurious" lows they classified and named just so they could justify their jobs; e) the GOM is too cold for tropical weather; f) the blog is boring; g) only themselves as above reproach for an unsuccesful forecast. while all others are fair game.

FWIW: it's warmer in northern locales such as Great Falls, Montana, and Minot, North Dakota than it is in north central Florida this morning thanks to the now vanishing omega blocking pattern that's been in place for a week.

Oh, yeah: good morning! ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13731
966. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
60-mph Subtropical/Tropical Storm Otto:



Area of Interest (Likely will become a named storm):



Area of Interest (Good possibility of becoming something in the medium/long term):



2010 is NOT over, and there is still a possibility of us reach 20 named storms, a good possibility. I believe we'll have 4 named storms this month, and 1-2 for the remainder of the year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
965. kmanislander
12:43 PM GMT on October 07, 2010
Good morning

Another wet and windy day in the NW Caribbean but surface pressures at Grand Cayman are relatively high at 1010.6 mbs and rising rapidly. To our South buoy 42057 has a pressure of 1008 and steady.

Winds sustained out of the N generally around 18 mph gusting into the 20s. Very heavy rain now with 2.23 inches since midnight.

This is the time of year to watch what happens on the tail end of a cold front. Vorticity at 5000 feet fairly strong in this region and holding.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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