Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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None of the cones I've looked at specify when the storm is supposed to turn tropical -- and it is obvious it will, since it is forecasted to become a hurricane. Any guesses?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Agreed

gom i personally dont think so especially just weaker storms
Member Since: September 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Quoting hurristat:


A note to all: it can be a bit... PG-13 at times.
yeah pretty much
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Believe the Cape Verde and GOM Season is Over.
No it is not....The cmc model said in 1830 hours we will have a cat-5...Or around December-20.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
No.. I believe it is a different system all together...Come on, lets argue about it so we can the blog normal...HHHHHHAAAAAA !!!!
Ok. Game on! ;)
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Current weather patterns do not dictate that the GOM is SHUT DOWN for the rest of the season!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting srada:


Yeah, I went to Raleigh yesterday and there are DOT signs set up along the Interstate exits about certain roads being impassable due to flooding..and the real high tide wont hit until Saturday so things could get worse before better..but if we Carolinians can handle the Panthers losing season so far, we can handle anything..LOL..

Things sure are gonna be dicey the next couple days, but we're tough & been through it before.

Oh & 0-4 Panthers. However, we got the Bears marching to town. If you saw what went down Sun nite in the Meadowlands, I see Carolina's first win no problem! LOL
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Believe the Cape Verde and GOM Season is Over.
agree also....
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Quoting hydrus:
What are your thoughts on the remaining part of this hurricane season? ( absolutely magnificent over the Gulf of Mexico...
I think the remainder of the season will not be very active, more like mellow. I don't expect more than 3 to 4 tropical cyclones to develop through late November.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Looks like a big, splattered mess!! Nah, it's just your garden variety shwr/t-storm activity at the moment. If I'm right though, I think NHC did designate it a yellow blob a few days ago...but that has since long passed.
No.. I believe it is a different system all together...Come on, lets argue about it so we can the blog normal...HHHHHHAAAAAA !!!!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Did not know that. That's extra great then. I'll have to bookmark the site...


A note to all: it can be a bit... PG-13 at times.
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Quoting reedzone:


Honestly, I think we have 2 more storms for the Caribbean, and 1 or 2 out in the open Atlantic.

Oh yeah !! ...and for sure no more storms after december 31st lol
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Believe the Cape Verde and GOM Season is Over.
Agreed
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting hurristat:
HEY EVERYONE!

We (meaning Dr. Masters) were all referenced in today's xkcd: Link

Bottom left close-up.

...near Troll bay and Bay of Drama I see.


_________________

Breeze here is from North, feeling the edge of Otto.
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I Believe the Cape Verde and GOM Season is Over.
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600. srada
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Thnx! We'll get through it like always.


Yeah, I went to Raleigh yesterday and there are DOT signs set up along the Interstate exits about certain roads being impassable due to flooding..and the real high tide wont hit until Saturday so things could get worse before better..but if we Carolinians can handle the Panthers losing season so far, we can handle anything..LOL..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I am interested in the Central Atlantic blob...
Looks like a big, splattered mess!! Nah, it's just your garden variety shwr/t-storm activity at the moment. If I'm right though, I think NHC did designate it a yellow blob a few days ago...but that has since long passed.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting hurristat:


It's actually really awesome... xkcd is the most read webcomic on teh interwebs.
Did not know that. That's extra great then. I'll have to bookmark the site...
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting hydrus:
pffft.. ( holding a hit...) wuzup Flood...:)


LOL...
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Pretty cool!
I am interested in the Central Atlantic blob...
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Quoting srada:
Thnx! Best of luck to you too. We'll get through it like always.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Eastern North Carolina flooding aid update
Link
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Pretty cool!


It's actually really awesome... xkcd is the most read webcomic on teh interwebs.
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wow 60 mph..
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Quoting Floodman:


Most of us long term members are with you...
pffft.. ( holding a hit...) wuzup Flood...:)
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590. srada
Quoting cat5hurricane:
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


Hey Everyone!!

Cat5, we are experiencing the same thing until Saturday morning..Good luck to yall down in SC..

If I hear the season was a bust one more time on this blog???...we are still dealing with our little "non event" here in Eastern NC

BASED ON DATA FROM THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE...AND EXTENSIVE
GROUND TRUTH ASSESSMENTS BY OUR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST...EXPECT TO
EXCEED COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR NEARLY 2 HRS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH
TIDE AND FLOOD WATERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DRAIN FROM SOME LOCATIONS.
WITH THU MORNING HIGH TIDE AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON TO OCCUR AT 945
AM...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW EXTENDED TO 17Z THU.

ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDE
CYCLES...AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS AND/OR EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MORE OF THE COAST...AS THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurristat:
HEY EVERYONE!

We (meaning Dr. Masters) were all referenced in today's xkcd: Link

Bottom left close-up.
Pretty cool!
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, those are the remnants of 14W. The system not only had to deal with land interaction from the island of Hainan, China, but 25-30 knots of westerly shear began to impede upon the system after it crossed the island. It became quite the rainmaker for the people of Hainan.
What are your thoughts on the remaining part of this hurricane season? ( absolutely magnificent over the Gulf of Mexico...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Discussion? Here? lol what is that?

Most of what I have seen lately is people trying to prove other people wrong, pretty sickening to me that some have to keep score

It is immature and stupid, I wish the blog as a whole could get back to discussing the tropics


Most of us long term members are with you...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HEY EVERYONE!

We (meaning Dr. Masters) were all referenced in today's xkcd: Link

Bottom left close-up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This season is very deadly.

Not deadly as 2008, 2005 and especially 2004
It have to surpass 1.000 deaths to call a very deadly season
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Upper Level Divergence (1800Z)

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting Floodman:


Not much we can do about it...I lurk a lot these days as I don't trust myself not to mix it up...remember when there was discussion in here?


Discussion? Here? lol what is that?

Most of what I have seen lately is people trying to prove other people wrong, pretty sickening to me that some have to keep score

It is immature and stupid, I wish the blog as a whole could get back to discussing the tropics
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
I know why no major landfalls in the US this year. Tunnels!
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Quoting NEwxguy:


vaguely,distant memory


Like something from childhood...LOL
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Quoting hydrus:
Speaking of the Western Pacific, it is rather quiet except for the distubance off of Viet Nam..
Yeah, those are the remnants of 14W. The system not only had to deal with land interaction from the island of Hainan, China, but 25-30 knots of westerly shear began to impede upon the system after it crossed the island. It became quite the rainmaker for the people of Hainan.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Floodman:


Not much we can do about it...I lurk a lot these days as I don't trust myself not to mix it up...remember when there was discussion in here?


vaguely,distant memory
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
324 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2010

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-070300-
/O.NEW.KCHS.CF.Y.0020.101006T2100Z-101007T0300Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
324 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. TIDE LEVELS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH BETWEEN 7.1 AND 7.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WITH HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING EXPECTED AT 724 PM. TIDE LEVELS AT FORT PULASKI
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE WILL REACH BETWEEN 9.1 AND 9.2
FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING EXPECTED AT
733 PM. THESE TIDE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS DURING AND AFTER
THE EVENING COMMUTE AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHEN TIDES IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
REACH 7.0 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDES REACH 9.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT
FORT PULASKI.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON
DIRECTLY AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVED ANY SALT WATER
FLOODING THIS EVENING. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR SEND A TWEET TO #WXREPORT.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Lower Level Convergence
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting tropicfreak:


Don't they measure wind speed in knots?


No. 50 mph in knots is 45 knots, that was while Matthew existed its 'peak' intensity.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting weaverwxman:
you are obviously too young to have served in Vietnam it can and does rain in buckets literally
Speaking of the Western Pacific, it is rather quiet except for the distubance off of Viet Nam..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Thought this was interesting.. apparently Matthew obtained a peak intensity of 60 mph, operationally it was registered to have obtained a peak of 50 only.

AL, 15, 2010092500, , BEST, 0, 150N, 843W, 50, 998, TS


Don't they measure wind speed in knots?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thought this was interesting.. apparently Matthew obtained a peak intensity of 60 mph, operationally it was registered to have obtained a peak of 50 only.

AL, 15, 2010092500, , BEST, 0, 150N, 843W, 50, 998, TS
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The discussion said Otto is "Gradually Acquiring Tropical Characteristics".
Yep.

It said within the next 12 hours the full transition should take affect due to very light shear.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting robert88:
No significant impacts to the US turned out to be a major bust by all the well respected forecasters. I don't want to see any death and destruction...but watching the majority of all hurricanes spinning around the open Atlantic is quite boring imo. The most interesting storms are the ones that ignore the models with track and intensity. That didn't happen this season with the exception of Earl getting close to NC for a landfall.


Bonnie hit Florida as a tropical (thunder)storm, but that was nothing out of the ordinary for FL residents. Nicole came close to making landfall in FL before it dissipated and became a big rainmaker for the mid-atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bwi:
Good afternoon, just checking in for the first time today, so apologies for not reading too far back in the comments yet.

Checking a couple models, it now looks like 12z ECMWF spins up a storm in the western caribbean next week, but GFS 12z has backed off quite a bit, with lots of disturbed weather but no storm pulling together.
The 12Z GFS actually backed off a lot from what it had at the 6Z. That's not to say that the 18Z won't come back to showing the system organizing just to the northern coast of Honduras 180 hours out.

We'll see if we can get some consistency.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting reedzone:
If Otto becomes a Hurricane, that would be 8 Hurricanes, only one away from my 9-10 prediction.


You are becoming a pro, Allan. Good for you.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Thunderstorms are beginning to wrap around the center, likely acquiring tropical characteristics.

The discussion said Otto is "Gradually Acquiring Tropical Characteristics".
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I'm out for a while. Play nice!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Otto
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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