Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

so what your like the teacher of this blog which is a silly thing to do.
You should read it again. Maybe you will catch on to what he was saying. He was not trying to teach.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting scott39:
And then in the GOM as a TD. :)
Wrong, she died over eastern Cuba.
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Quoting hydrus:
Paloma was a Caribbean storm the hit the Caymans and Cuba.....I think...
Yes, Paloma developed in the SW Caribbean and moved NE crossing the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
My prediction: five more named storms to go, with two or three hurricanes, and one-to-two majors. Check out the TCs that formed on or after October 6th during the following years:

2008: one TD, two TSs, and two hurricanes (both Cat 4s)
2005: one SD, four TSs, four hurricanes (two Cat 1s, one Cat 3, one Cat 5)
2001: two TSs, four hurricanes (three Cat 1s, one Cat 4)
1995: one TS, two hurricanes (one Cat 1, one Cat 3)
1969*: one TS, four hurricanes (two Cat 1s, two Cat 2s)
1950*: three hurricanes (one Cat 2, two Cat 3s)

* - Had there been the same satellite coverage we now haves, it's likely at least one or two additional TCs would have been detected.




I don't think we get anywhere near 5, they all would have to come from the Caribbean, the THCP in the gulf is almost all gone. I say 3 at most, most seasons unlike the couple you showed there, shows a massive shutdown after the second week of october
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Quoting hydrus:
Paloma was a Caribbean storm the hit the Caymans and Cuba.....I think...
And then in the GOM as a TD. :)
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Current:


2009:


huge difference in the gulf, and on the gulf stream
The GOM can still keep at least a Cat 1 alive when it comes to the current SSTs.
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My prediction: five more named storms to go, with two or three hurricanes, and one or two majors. Check out the TCs that formed on or after October 6th during the following years:

2008: one TD, two TSs, and two hurricanes (both Cat 4s)
2005: one SD, four TSs, four hurricanes (two Cat 1s, one Cat 3, one Cat 5)
2001: two TSs, four hurricanes (three Cat 1s, one Cat 4)
1995: one TS, two hurricanes (one Cat 1, one Cat 3)
1969*: one TS, four hurricanes (two Cat 1s, two Cat 2s)
1950*: three hurricanes (one Cat 2, two Cat 3s)

* - Had there been the same satellite coverage we have now, it's likely at least one or two additional TCs would have been detected.


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Quoting BreadandCircuses:
546. Your nuts, that was amazing to see.


Your / You're

That apostrophe makes a big difference in the meaning of this sentence.

so what your like the teacher of this blog which is a silly thing to do.
Member Since: September 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Hello All, newbee here! Been lurking since Wilma every season when a tropical system forms and just now decided to join. Want to thank everyone for all their contributions to us that don't know squat about tropical storms, steering, ridges, etc. I'll go back to lurking just wanted to say hello and thank everyone for sharing their knowledge.

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am enjoying this cool weather and windy conditions here in southeast florida the nights are great windows open no airconditioning!!!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
What about Ida-2009 GOM


Current:


2009:


huge difference in the gulf, and on the gulf stream
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652 -VABeachHurricanes -

Thankfully close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



a little farther out then a brush


At day 10 yes, but days 8 and 9 are very close to SE FL.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! I also see people seem to fail to post the latest EURO which grazes this by S FL at the end of the 12Z run.



a little farther out then a brush
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This maybe the coolest air we see in FL for quite awhile. I knew it was too good to be true.
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Possible big TS for FL next week. YAY RAIN!

BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR LVL SHORT
WAVE PUSHING ACRS THE ERN CONUS MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A RATHER
POTENT +110KT H25 JET MAX CROSSING THE DEEP S/FL PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WOULD INCREASE TSRA POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ECMWF TAKES THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...FOCUSING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE PANHANDLE RATHER THAN THE PENINSULA
. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION
IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FCST AND THE SHORTWAVE TROF IN QUESTION
HAS YET TO EVOLVE...WILL LEAVE TSRAS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:
546. Your nuts, that was amazing to see.


Your / You're

That apostrophe makes a big difference in the meaning of this sentence.
HA!!!! That is too funny.
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This cool wx is just about over for us in FL highs near 90 next week with a SE wind.
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Quoting Dakster:


Ewwww.... A Pee Storm?


LOL! I also see people seem to fail to post the latest EURO which grazes this by S FL at the end of the 12Z run.
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There maybe an opportunity for S FL to take a direct hit by this next Caribbean system down the road.
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GFS also is bringing back the high heat and humidity across the GULF and SE US. I wouldn't say no more gulf storms or you maybe eating crow.
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Max Mayfield on Sub-tropical storm Otto.

Comments on Subtropical Depression Seventeen (now Otto)
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Quoting scott39:
What about Olga 2007--in the GOM!
And Typhoon Tip in the Hudson Bay ! ..click, click...bubble...gurgle...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
GFS has the P storm on this run.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think the remainder of the season will not be very active, more like mellow. I don't expect more than 3 to 4 tropical cyclones to develop through late November.


IMO, we'll crank out 3 more. 2 more this month, 1 in November for a grand total of 18 (my forecast is 17, to be conservative)
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Quoting scott39:
Or what about Paloma in 2008 in the GOM.
Paloma was a Caribbean storm the hit the Caymans and Cuba.....I think...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting scott39:
Do you still think the GOM season is over?
Maybe one storm but, it's basically over. The huge blocking high over the area keeps basically everything from getting into the GOM
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Like I told Kman before my memory is really only good for 14 and a half hours...so I'm probably wrong
You just completely deviated from (game on) status..You can NEVER admit you were wrong...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Do you still think the GOM season is over?
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Hmmm 2004 Matthew in the GOM in Oct.
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Quoting scott39:
To say the GOM see post 621

Sorry, didn't see it. Thanks for the heads up
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
To say the GOM
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
What about Ida-2009 GOM
see post 621
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What about Ida-2009 GOM
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2006 we had a break. We dont even want to talk about 2005 late season for the GOM!!
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SubtropicalStormOtto's heading had turned westward to (9.2degrees west of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (4.1degrees west of) NorthWest
StS.Otto's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~4mph(~6.4km/h)
from its previous moving speed of 28mph(~45.1km/h)
Invest 97L -- 6hours between consecutive center positions
5Oct 12amGMT - - 18.1n64.6w - - 25knots - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.5n64.5w
5Oct 06amGMT - - 18.6n65.0w - - 25knots - - 1006mb -- NHC-ATCF *18.5n65.0w
5Oct 12pmGMT - - 19.5n65.3w - - 30knots - - 1006mb -- NHC-ATCF *19.0n65.3w
5Oct 06pmGMT - - 20.6n65.7w - - 30knots - - 1004mb -- NHC-ATCF
6Oct 12amGMT - - 21.4n66.2w - - 30knots - - 1002mb -- NHC-ATCF *21.5n66.1w
6Oct 06amGMT - - 21.9n66.7w - - 30knots - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
StD.17 -- 3hours between consecutive center positions
6Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.2n67.0w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
6Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.0n68.0w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb -- #2
StS.Otto -- 6hours between consecutive center positions
6Oct 09pmGMT - - 23.2n68.3w - - 60mph - - - - 990mb -- #3
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers.
25knots=~28.8mph=46.3km/h __ 30knots=~34.5mph=~55.6km/h
35mph=~56.3km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h

Copy&paste 18.1n64.6w, 18.6n65.0w, 19.5n65.3w, 20.6n65.7w, 21.4n66.2w-21.9n66.7w, 21.9n66.7w-22.2n67.0w, 22.2n67.0w-23.0n68.0w, 23.0n68.0w-23.2n68.3w, hog, zsa, vqs into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 21^hours.

^ The northernmost line-segment spans 6hours between dots.
The following line-segment spans 3hours between dots.
The 2 southernmost line-segments individually span 6hours between dots.
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Can someone explain the NE forecast that far south with this steering layer?
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What about Olga 2007--in the GOM!
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Or what about Paloma in 2008 in the GOM.
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Check out my newTropical Update! Comments are welcome, will answer any question...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting NASA101:
Time for JB to eat his words..!! So much for MJO, record SSTs, La-Nina, focused heating in the Caribbean etc etc!





not to create waves here....... but wheres your doctorates degree in meteorology? The problem i have been seeing is that people bad mouth those who have experiance and degrees in their fields of research, when those professionals whom are being bad mouthed are actually accurate and put their passion and dreams into their work. granted, the weather is still ultimately unpredictable, but to crucify those who have better resourses at their fingertips for being 1 storm off in their prediction, also note its in the beginning of october, theres a month and a half to go, seems to me that some are kinda ungreatful and jealous of those whom try to give the best forecast they can get. still, go ahead, bash joe bastardi, cause he doesnt even have a crystal ball, but dont act immature about it. as far as im concerned, he has been close to perfect in his predictions. just watch the older dated videos on what he says. hell hes even more consistant and accurate than my local nws office.
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Quoting hurristat:


Well, two cat-5's... one by Cape Verde and one in Missouri.

Missouri: I'd run if I were you.
Those Missouri cat-5,s may as well be cat-10,s. I already have my shutters up here in Tennessee..Missouri is to close to my house.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting scott39:
Current weather patterns do not dictate that the GOM is SHUT DOWN for the rest of the season!
Lets take just last year for instance. Hurricane Ida 11/4--11/10 2009 In the GOM!
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Quoting hydrus:
The Central Atlantic blob is only at about 5 degrees north.. How could you possibly confuse that with the yellow circle The Hurricane Center had issued a couple days ago?
Like I told Kman before my memory is really only good for 14 and a half hours...so I'm probably wrong
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Hey, just heard a report that a second plane has crashed, this time near Little Whale Cay in the Berry Islands.

Yesterday's crash news made it to USAToday.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

gom i personally dont think so
Well I think it's safe to say at least post 610 agrees with you.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ok. Game on! ;)
The Central Atlantic blob is only at about 5 degrees north.. How could you possibly confuse that with the yellow circle The Hurricane Center had issued a couple days ago?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting hydrus:
No it is not....The cmc model said in 1830 hours we will have a cat-5...Or around December-20.


Well, two cat-5's... one by Cape Verde and one in Missouri.

Missouri: I'd run if I were you.
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None of the cones I've looked at specify when the storm is supposed to turn tropical -- and it is obvious it will, since it is forecasted to become a hurricane. Any guesses?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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