Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 715 - 665

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Evening, everyone. I see we have Otto tonight.


Yup, close to hurricane status.

That means its close to be tropical, since you cant have a Subtropical hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
COME ON HALLADAY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Suspect two, perhaps 3 names will be retired this year.

Alex -- hard to say, it caused 2 billion dollars in damages to South Padre Island, Texas and Mexico. But I thought for sure Dolly would be retired too given it hit in a similar location albeit a US landfall and caused as much damage.

Karl -- I'd be shocked if it wasn't. ~5.6 BILLION dollars in damages was caused to Mexico. That makes it the 4th most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico behind Pauline (EPAC) Wilma and Gilbert.

Matthew -- I think Matthew will become our 2nd TS to ever be retired. Why? The damage wasn't high, but the death toll topped over 130. Recall Hurricane Felix a storm that also killed 130 people, and hit in a very similar location. It was also retired. See if Matthew had hit Haiti and killed 500 I doubt it would be retired, as Hanna did the same thing in 2008.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
a little off topic but i have to bring it up...
roy halladay of the phillies is pitching a no hitter through 8 innings v.s reds now back on topic


You do?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening, everyone. I see we have Otto tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your wrong. NC experienced hurricane force winds from Earl.
Link

Besides, 6 out of the 7 hurricanes this year we saw hardly qualified as 'wimpy'

Hehe. A NOLA satirical take on Earl's impacts to CONUS:
(snipped for post size)
...

But then the mourning bells of the Old Whaling Church begin to ring. The voices around you soften. And, in that moment, you remember the two words that no one here will ever forget: Hurricane Earl.

It’s been five weeks since Earl devastated this region. The storm made a direct hit on the open waters 100 miles to the south of the island, buffeting Martha’s Vineyard with wind gusts of 35 miles per hour and a two-foot storm surge.

Even now, evidence of the disaster is everywhere. An overturned Adirondack chair. A slightly-frayed American flag fluttering in front of the Wharf Pub. A boy playing in a pile of leaves on Cooke Street.

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Earl was the second-costliest hurricane to brush the coast of the United States in 2010.

Yet its devastation cannot be measured in strictly economic terms. Hurricane Earl exposed socio-economic tensions that have long existed in Martha’s Vineyard and revealed a community sharply divided between haves and have-nots.

As Earl approached, wealthy white tourists evacuated the island, leaving the poorest and most vulnerable residents – gay, upper-middle class innkeepers – to ride out the storm at their quaint bed-and-breakfasts.

Although power was restored within two hours and services were in no way disrupted, the federal government was roundly criticized for not doing enough to evacuate residents.

“Many of these people didn’t have cars and couldn’t drive to safety,” said community activist Edie Sanchez. “It was as if these people were stuck on an island – an island of federal neglect.”

...

http://www.nolevee.com/?article=super_rich_community_br_reels_from_hurricane_earl

(Also see the Levee report that Reggie Bush has won the Theismann award. Lots of yuks to be had...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
LOL, Ok I will take your word for it. The reason I started posting TCs that were in the GOM October and after is because I keep seeing posts saying the GOM is "Closed" "ShutDown" "Over" Ect... Nobody knows that.


That's the point right there. Nobody actually knows. Either side of the argument could very well be right. Only time will tell.

Until the high moves out, I think it would be pretty tough for anything to make it into the GOM right now, but we'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Maybe they were all banned for wild speculation - or bad writing ;-)
None of it matters anyway 12/21/12 is not far off..;0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
This is the 1st time where winds no greater than 65 mph affected the US from landfalling tropical systems. Stronger winds were recorded in many routine thunderstorms. This was the year of The Wimpacane.


Your wrong. NC experienced hurricane force winds from Earl.
Link

Besides, 6 out of the 7 hurricanes this year we saw hardly qualified as 'wimpy'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
scott39 was saying Paloma entered the GOM as a TD which I disputed.
Scott has been goofing off a bit. I think he is trying to stir the pot if ya know what I sayin...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
652 -VABeachHurricanes -

Thankfully close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.


Counts for nukes too. The rule was revised. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
699. txjac
Okay Miami ...looks like this subtropical looking to be tropical Otto that we have ...at this point in time looks like no land impact? Based on the troughs and steering and all that other stuff what did you think that its going to do?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
This is odd ...where did everyone go?
Ran away. LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
This is odd ...where did everyone go?


Maybe they were all banned for wild speculation - or bad writing ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
696. txjac
This is odd ...where did everyone go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
692. txjac
Thanks for the explanation MiamiH09
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
So ...whats the difference between being affected by a tropical vs subtopical storm? Does a subtropical mean more rain? Do winds get higher with a tropical?
The difference between being affected by a tropical or subtropical cyclone is not a large one. Subtropical cyclones usually have a broader and larger wind field as opposed to a tropical cyclone. The wind field on a subtropical cyclone is also further away from the core of the system. In terms of rainfall, subtropical cyclones usually have less of it (Andrea -- 2007 for example) though that tends to vary from system to system. All in all, subtropical and tropical systems are generally similar as far as impacts go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
689. txjac
Quoting WaterWitch11:
awhh...the blog is back to normal i'm happy to see.

did ya know fall is here?


And loving it waterwitch ...fall is nice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I mean, if you were trying to cool down the gulf as quickly as possible, i think this would be the perfect blueprint.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
LOL, Ok I will take your word for it. The reason I started posting TCs that were in the GOM October and after is because I keep seeing posts saying the GOM is "Closed" "ShutDown" "Over" Ect... Nobody knows that.
Not my word for it. The NHC and I for one still say there is a possibility(however slim) of something getting in the GOM in October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
awhh...the blog is back to normal i'm happy to see.

did ya know fall is here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Do subtropical storms count for seasonal ACE?


Nope
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are plenty warm for a tropical cyclone. There would have to be some sort of baroclinic enhancement for a tropical cyclone to become sub or extratropical in the Gulf of Mexico.


Yes, but with no cloud cover, and strong cool winds from the north, the Gulf is cooling very quickly and soon there will not be enough depth of the 26 isotherm to maintain a tropical cyclone, unless that trough lifts out i give it another week at most
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can you find me the advisory that shows that Paloma got into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression?
IM not looking at an advisory. I was going off the tracking map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
NHC said she entered the GOM after making an anti-cyclonic loop as a remnant low which is not a TD.
LOL, Ok I will take your word for it. The reason I started posting TCs that were in the GOM October and after is because I keep seeing posts saying the GOM is "Closed" "ShutDown" "Over" Ect... Nobody knows that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
680. txjac
So ...whats the difference between being affected by a tropical vs subtopical storm? Does a subtropical mean more rain? Do winds get higher with a tropical?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I don't think we get anywhere near 5, they all would have to come from the Caribbean, the THCP in the gulf is almost all gone. I say 3 at most, most seasons unlike the couple you showed there, shows a massive shutdown after the second week of october


But 2010 isn't like most seasons. Case in point: the late start followed by the unprecedented ramp-up to the 'O' storm...the unprecedented number of simultaneous Cat 4s. And so on. Too, while TCHP in the GOM has diminshed, it's still higher than normal in most of the Caribbean and the western Atlantic...and October is the time of peak warmth.

You may be right, of course, but, in my opinion, 1969 has been and continues to be our best analog year so far as number of storms is concerned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Whats up? SWCI..
scott39 was saying Paloma entered the GOM as a TD which I disputed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
You are Wrong, Go back and look at the archives on this site!! She got into the GOM as a TD!
Paloma rapidly weakened over Cuba, both due to strong wind shear and land interaction. It rapidly slowed in movements after making landfall. Strong shear dissipated most of its convection, leaving only its low- and mid-level circulation. It weakened into a tropical storm early on November 9 and downgraded to a tropical depression that afternoon while stalling over the area. That evening, Paloma weakened into a remnant low.[1] Very strong shear and cold water made the remnant loop and move back into the Caribbean, crossing Western Cuba. Convection developed and its remnant low reached the Florida Panhandle by November 14 which caused heavy rain in the area. The remnant low from Paloma dissipated on November 14, having been absorbed by a front without re-developing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
You are Wrong, Go back and look at the archives on this site!! She got into the GOM as a TD!
Can you find me the advisory that shows that Paloma got into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
NHC said she entered the GOM after making an anti-cyclonic loop as a remnant low which is not a TD.
Whats up? SWCI..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


only if it moves at a good clip, a slow one the water will mix to fast and it will transition to sub or extra tropical
No, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are plenty warm for a tropical cyclone. There would have to be some sort of baroclinic enhancement for a tropical cyclone to become sub or extratropical in the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
You are Wrong, Go back and look at the archives on this site!! She got into the GOM as a TD!
NHC said she entered the GOM after making an anti-cyclonic loop as a remnant low which is not a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


only if it moves at a good clip, a slow one the water will mix to fast and it will transition to sub or extra tropical
Agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
The GOM can still keep at least a Cat 1 alive when it comes to the current SSTs.


only if it moves at a good clip, a slow one the water will mix to fast and it will transition to sub or extra tropical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wrong, she died over eastern Cuba.
You are Wrong, Go back and look at the archives on this site!! She got into the GOM as a TD!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
And then in the GOM as a TD. :)
&*^&*^^**&^**^ ! Come to think of it, the remnants went into Florida I believe. Scott may be right...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

so what your like the teacher of this blog which is a silly thing to do.
You should read it again. Maybe you will catch on to what he was saying. He was not trying to teach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 715 - 665

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
33 °F
Partly Cloudy