Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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765. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it's partially contingent upon the upper low responsible for Otto's subtropical characteristics. That low should gradually weaken and deamplify, and I'd imagine this convection will dissipate after that.


It is becoming it's own feature with 850mb vort developing, probably the reason why it is exploding even though it is so far from Otto, though the ULL to the NE might be helping it too.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


No, it's not late enough IMHO. Professional forecasters confess? To what? Why?


Confess to their conspiracy to keep the numbers in line with the preseason prognostications, of course. Didn't you know?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OEG:
I was wondering if we are late enough in the season ("sub" tropical, etc.) to say that the hurricane forecast of 2010 were complete busts. Do the errent forecasters ever confess?


No, it's not late enough IMHO. Professional forecasters confess? To what? Why?
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Quoting OEG:
I was wondering if we are late enough in the season ("sub" tropical, etc.) to say that the hurricane forecast of 2010 were complete busts. Do the errent forecasters ever confess?

You should run away, now....
heheheheh
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760. OEG
I was wondering if we are late enough in the season ("sub" tropical, etc.) to say that the hurricane forecast of 2010 were complete busts. Do the errent forecasters ever confess?
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688 VAbeachhurricanes "I mean, if you were trying to cool down the gulf as quickly as possible, i think this would be the perfect blueprint. [dry air map]"

Problem is that next week, the Wicked Wet from the West is s'poseta washout that blueprint.

Hokay... Why hasn't al97 been renumbered as al17? Or even kept current? It ain't as if TropicalStorm (or Hurricane) Otto is gonna pop outta nowhere.
Or is the NHC that confident that Otto will remain Subtropical?
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758. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:


+20 million. Post of the day, Captn!


Captain
or
Capt'n, please
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Quoting JLPR2:


I just hope this spin doesn't stay stationary there, that would cause huge flooding problems.


I think it's partially contingent upon the upper low responsible for Otto's subtropical characteristics. That low should gradually weaken and deamplify, and I'd imagine this convection will dissipate after that.
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756. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hehe (I hope you got that I wasn't referring to you!)


;-]
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St. Kitts/Nevis current weather

Temp 75F
Pressure 1011
Humidity 100%
Winds WSW
Rain.
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Quoting beell:


Merry Christmas to you and yours, atmo!
Hehe (I hope you got that I wasn't referring to you!)
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753. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Lots of flooding for the islands.


I just hope this spin doesn't stay stationary there, that would cause huge flooding problems.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
In a way I wish we could have a good size storm impact the conus somewhere with no injuries or deaths( if people would and could all evacuate, which isn't never possible. This would create jobs for all the 4.9 million people unemployed in the housing/ construction sector. Latest data shows the insurance companies have more pure profit in cash than any other business in the USA. 1.6 Trillion available for housing repairs. Its a sad world where insurance companies were allowed to raise rates after Katrina, even though their cost was paid back to them from reinsurance policys from Loyds of London. Also sad that our government allows insurance companies to pick and choose who they want to insure or take a risk on. Its like legalized gambling,  Insurance companies ideology-(Let only people give us premium money that we wont have to give back in claims and cancel all the rest that live in coastal cities that might have a claim in  any given year, like Katrina, yes that storm was rough on our margins as far  the public is concerned,and we had to spend more in court for lawyers than we would have if would have paid those claims where people had total loses. If casinos ran that business model nobody would ever walk out with a dime. This scenario would bring more jobs to the US than any wasteful government actions or so called programs which never seem to pan out. The last huge intervention by the gov was for the construction of the interstate highway system, The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 under Eisenhower which did pan out and create jobs. Obama would be hard pressed to out do this without adding to the deficit unlike Eisenhower who did it all with actual incoming tax revenue.
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Quoting JLPR2:


This one is popping out of nowhere in a hurry.



Lots of flooding for the islands.
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750. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
That's what I'm seeing. Cue wishy comment...
...
...
now!


Merry Christmas to you and yours, atmo!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Otto still a subtropical storm. Winds up another notch, up to 65mph. The pressure remains at 990mb.

AL, 17, 2010100700, , BEST, 0, 233N, 682W, 55, 990, SS


I don't recall having a named Sub-tropical cyclone this strong.
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Good evening all.
A Glorious evening here with clear, starry skies and gentle, cooling breezes.
Feels like December right now.

What a weird season....
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747. JLPR2


This one is popping out of nowhere in a hurry.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Otto still a subtropical storm. Winds up another notch, up to 65mph. The pressure remains at 990mb.

AL, 17, 2010100700, , BEST, 0, 233N, 682W, 55, 990, SS
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Quoting beell:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT WED OCT 06 2010


...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO-CARIBBEAN BASIN IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A NOVEMBER-EARLY
DECEMBER FLOW PATTERN...
That's what I'm seeing. Cue wishy comment...
...
...
now!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Burden of proof.


Doubt he has any. Just another guy to prove my point. Some people (already seen a good 3 or 4 on here tonight, such as NASA101 for example) believe that a season is active if storms hit the United States only.

Funny, they're the same type of people in July who screamed bust. Its pretty sad when they have to ridicule a government weather agency for being right because they didn't have any patience 3 months ago.
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Quoting tampaENG:
See ya next year! BTW I am a long time reader - not a troll but here is my opinion:

1st cold front has passed in FL, 2nd coming next week per GFS. Season over.
This season I would dub the satellite season.
Lots of storms this season that 60 years ago would have never been noted.

Before you cry foul on deaths - every year there are deaths from mudslides in MEX, SA and some islands from deforestation - no matter if it's a "named storm" or just a low pressure system.

They are very quick to give names to marginal storms that "look" like storms on satellite.
Otto is a joke. It's a normal storm.

These forecasters (even at NHC) are padding the numbers to keep their jobs. Not that I blame them - everyone else in the USA is doing that too.

Here is to year 5 of not worrying about tropical systems in FL!

You say that your not a troll but obviously you are. I have never said this before "Poof"
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741. JLPR2
Hello? XD
A new area of vort has developed with Otto's abandoned band of convection...


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting CaptnDan142:


I forgot who it was that said it.... But there was mention here the other day that Canada is talking about requesting retirement of Igor.

Now, as to whether or not they will actually retire the name or not, dunno.


Really? That's pretty surprising. Anyone know were this was said?
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Quoting tampaENG:
See ya next year! BTW I am a long time reader - not a troll but here is my opinion:

1st cold front has passed in FL, 2nd coming next week per GFS. Season over.
This season I would dub the satellite season.
Lots of storms this season that 60 years ago would have never been noted.

Before you cry foul on deaths - every year there are deaths from mudslides in MEX, SA and some islands from deforestation - no matter if it's a "named storm" or just a low pressure system.

They are very quick to give names to marginal storms that "look" like storms on satellite.
Otto is a joke. It's a normal storm.

These forecasters (even at NHC) are padding the numbers to keep their jobs. Not that I blame them - everyone else in the USA is doing that too.

Here is to year 5 of not worrying about tropical systems in FL!


Burden of proof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
See ya next year! BTW I am a long time reader - not a troll but here is my opinion:

1st cold front has passed in FL, 2nd coming next week per GFS. Season over.
This season I would dub the satellite season.
Lots of storms this season that 60 years ago would have never been noted.

Before you cry foul on deaths - every year there are deaths from mudslides in MEX, SA and some islands from deforestation - no matter if it's a "named storm" or just a low pressure system.

They are very quick to give names to marginal storms that "look" like storms on satellite.
Otto is a joke. It's a normal storm.

These forecasters (even at NHC) are padding the numbers to keep their jobs. Not that I blame them - everyone else in the USA is doing that too.

Here is to year 5 of not worrying about tropical systems in FL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
737. beell
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT WED OCT 06 2010


...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO-CARIBBEAN BASIN IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A NOVEMBER-EARLY
DECEMBER FLOW PATTERN...

...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA THROUGH 60-84 HRS. BUT...THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO MAKE
CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS FEATURE...WITH LATEST RUNS
FAVORING A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER LOW THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. COOL/DRY
AIR INCURSION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA TO BE HAVING AN IMPACT ON THIS EVOLUTION...
Link




Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Suspect two, perhaps 3 names will be retired this year.

Alex -- hard to say, it caused 2 billion dollars in damages to South Padre Island, Texas and Mexico. But I thought for sure Dolly would be retired too given it hit in a similar location albeit a US landfall and caused as much damage.

Karl -- I'd be shocked if it wasn't. ~5.6 BILLION dollars in damages was caused to Mexico. That makes it the 4th most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico behind Pauline (EPAC) Wilma and Gilbert.

Matthew -- I think Matthew will become our 2nd TS to ever be retired. Why? The damage wasn't high, but the death toll topped over 130. Recall Hurricane Felix a storm that also killed 130 people, and hit in a very similar location. It was also retired. See if Matthew had hit Haiti and killed 500 I doubt it would be retired, as Hanna did the same thing in 2008.


The only one there that merits retirement IMO is Karl. But then, I have a very strict criteria for retirement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Suspect two, perhaps 3 names will be retired this year.

Alex -- hard to say, it caused 2 billion dollars in damages to South Padre Island, Texas and Mexico. But I thought for sure Dolly would be retired too given it hit in a similar location albeit a US landfall and caused as much damage.

Karl -- I'd be shocked if it wasn't. ~5.6 BILLION dollars in damages was caused to Mexico. That makes it the 4th most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico behind Pauline (EPAC) Wilma and Gilbert.

Matthew -- I think Matthew will become our 2nd TS to ever be retired. Why? The damage wasn't high, but the death toll topped over 130. Recall Hurricane Felix a storm that also killed 130 people, and hit in a very similar location. It was also retired. See if Matthew had hit Haiti and killed 500 I doubt it would be retired, as Hanna did the same thing in 2008.


Karl for sure, and, IMO, Igor (my guess is that Environment Canada will request retirement, as they did for 2003's Juan, stating the following: "...in consideration of the lost and damaged lives, the impact to economy, and the widespread destruction of trees"

Alex, probably; it was bad in Texas, yes, but it was much worse in Mexico, causing unprecedented flooding and misery. Matthew? Not too sure, but, frankly, I'd be surprised if he was...
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:
2 down 1 more to go for NO hitter
How boring. Must be painful to watch with such bad batsmen.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Perfection is a pretty tall order. I don't think anyone is really looking for that. But there are those among us who find it rather difficult to take a person's opinion on a complex scientific matter seriously when they don't seem to realize that U and R are letters, not words - and that there, their, and they're are all different words with different uses/meanings.

...to those who choose to use textspeek for their posts, just keep in mind that there are some here who will see those posts as having come from someone lacking in basic communication skills, and they're not going to take them seriously based on that alone.


+20 million. Post of the day, Captn!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Even if IGOR had been a total fish storm....I think the NHC should retire that name just because.........that's just a bad name for a cyclone......c'mon..IGOR.
.
.
.
You can do better NHC.
.
.


The NHC does not name or retire storms; that's the responsibility of the World Meteorological Organization.

See here



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ACK, my internet connection is slower than molassas in January tonight. :-(
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Quoting Caneguy:

Igor likely will be retired for causing extensive damage to New Foundland.
Even if IGOR had been a total fish storm....I think the NHC should retire that name just because.........that's just a bad name for a cyclone......c'mon..IGOR.
.
.
.
You can do better NHC.
.
.
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St Martin checking in

48 hours of almost incessant rain, including several torrential cloudbursts and a couple of thunderstorms, is causing widespread flooding problems.

Looking for an end in sight....the moisture stream seems to be in a holding pattern.. anyone any idea when that might be?

Dan
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Quoting txjac:
Okay Miami ...looks like this subtropical looking to be tropical Otto that we have ...at this point in time looks like no land impact? Based on the troughs and steering and all that other stuff what did you think that its going to do?
I think Otto is already tropical in nature, however, since a small cold low is still hanging around the circulation the NHC decided to keep it subtropical. As far as track, Otto poses no threat to any landmasses. The system is currently diving into a weakness in the subtropical ridge induced by a series of multiple mid-latitudinal troughs. As the system continues to move off towards the north into the weakness, it will begin an easterly component due to the westerly flow ahead of a strong mid to upper level trough. The system will then become extratropical.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Suspect two, perhaps 3 names will be retired this year.

Alex -- hard to say, it caused 2 billion dollars in damages to South Padre Island, Texas and Mexico. But I thought for sure Dolly would be retired too given it hit in a similar location albeit a US landfall and caused as much damage.

Karl -- I'd be shocked if it wasn't. ~5.6 BILLION dollars in damages was caused to Mexico. That makes it the 4th most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico behind Pauline (EPAC) Wilma and Gilbert.

Matthew -- I think Matthew will become our 2nd TS to ever be retired. Why? The damage wasn't high, but the death toll topped over 130. Recall Hurricane Felix a storm that also killed 130 people, and hit in a very similar location. It was also retired. See if Matthew had hit Haiti and killed 500 I doubt it would be retired, as Hanna did the same thing in 2008.

Igor likely will be retired for causing extensive damage to New Foundland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Suspect two, perhaps 3 names will be retired this year.

Alex -- hard to say, it caused 2 billion dollars in damages to South Padre Island, Texas and Mexico. But I thought for sure Dolly would be retired too given it hit in a similar location albeit a US landfall and caused as much damage.

Karl -- I'd be shocked if it wasn't. ~5.6 BILLION dollars in damages was caused to Mexico. That makes it the 4th most destructive hurricane to hit Mexico behind Pauline (EPAC) Wilma and Gilbert.

Matthew -- I think Matthew will become our 2nd TS to ever be retired. Why? The damage wasn't high, but the death toll topped over 130. Recall Hurricane Felix a storm that also killed 130 people, and hit in a very similar location. It was also retired. See if Matthew had hit Haiti and killed 500 I doubt it would be retired, as Hanna did the same thing in 2008.


I forgot who it was that said it.... But there was mention here the other day that Canada is talking about requesting retirement of Igor.

Now, as to whether or not they will actually retire the name or not, dunno.
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

ughhh we can type what we want its just him that he wants everything to be perfect.....no one is perfect you know.


Perfection is a pretty tall order. I don't think anyone is really looking for that. But there are those among us who find it rather difficult to take a person's opinion on a complex scientific matter seriously when they don't seem to realize that U and R are letters, not words - and that there, their, and they're are all different words with different uses/meanings.

To those of us who came up in a slightly different era, how well one expressed themselves in writing was a sign of credibility. Or the lack thereof, as the case may be.

So to those who choose to use textspeek for their posts, just keep in mind that there are some here who will see those posts as having come form someone lacking in basic communication skills, and they're not going to take them seriously based on that alone.
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

cody lol


I'm just messin' with ya.

Up to 15 named storms, huh? 5 more from 20 named storms, but I think we'll only see 3-4 more.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I mean, if you were trying to cool down the gulf as quickly as possible, i think this would be the perfect blueprint.

I had a thought...I wonder, quantitatively, how much of the GoM cooling has to do with air temp, winds (evap cooling), and the dew point being so low (enhancing evap cooling). The low dew point has to be contributing given how much more ready everything here, on land, is drying out.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Evening, everyone. I see we have Otto tonight.


Yup, close to hurricane status.

That means its close to be tropical, since you cant have a Subtropical hurricane.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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