Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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Otto looks pathetic.
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914. IKE
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Hey everyone.

Real nice day here, amazingly. Says it's about 57, but it feels warmer. Hardly a cloud in the sky and a bit of a breeze. Lovely autumnal day.

Tomorrow's high, supposedly, is approaching 70. 70!? In October? I don't remember a 70 for the entirety of July (The fabled 'Return of the Westerlies' - aka 'European Monsoon' - does generally screw up one 'summer' month).

I'm not complaining, though. :)

Good thing we have high pressure, too.



Beast of a low, right there. Approaching Alex's pressure. No sign of Otto (or its extratropical form) just yet on the charts.
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Does anyone have any model data for carrib?
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911. IKE
If you live along the northern GOM it looks like a real nice weekend, with highs back into the mid-upper 80's.

Then Tuesday into Wednesday of next week another cold/cool front makes it through the area, with small chances of rain, cooling it back down and more dry air after it's moved through.

No tropical threats. 98% chance it's over for here.
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notice weather underground is advertising "no on 4" hum i understand it as big businesses now take advantage of loop holes and this closes them. basically homeowners are paying more of their share. thats why big money is pushing this no. sorry dr masters. what about the other ad last week single dating in costa rica. toes massages included?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Glad to hear that. No electric is not fun when it's hot outside. If you can figure out a way to send some of that rain up here, go for it! *G*
We were very dry down here the first several months of the year but finally started getting some around June and it has been basically a few days every week since then. The first rain we got this year was from Alex. I will check with Fed-Ex today to see if I can send some through them. Hmmm, now to find a big enough box.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Glad to hear that. No electric is not fun when it's hot outside. If you can figure out a way to send some of that rain up here, go for it! *G*
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Looks like you will be getting more wind and rain. I hope it's not enough to cause any problems.
Well, so far no power outage which is a regular thing here but it rained all day yesterday with gusty winds.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Shut down the computer early last night due to severe lightning but was surprised this morning by the blob sitting over the Cayman Islands, Winds here are 28 mph gusting to 39 mph. Pressure is 1006 mb. We had .98" rain since midnight last night and still lots of lightning.


Looks like you will be getting more wind and rain. I hope it's not enough to cause any problems.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Shut down the computer early last night due to severe lightning but was surprised this morning by the blob sitting over the Cayman Islands, Winds here are 28 mph gusting to 39 mph. Pressure is 1006 mb. We had .98" rain since midnight last night and still lots of lightning.


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Current Weather Conditions:
KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION, FL, United States

(KNQX) 24-35N 81-41W 6M
Conditions at

2010.10.07 1013 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT) gusting to 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly clear
Temperature 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point 64 F (18 C)
Relative Humidity 73%
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, not sure who all is here, or if anyone is this morning. It's fifty degrees supposedly, though the last three days it's been about seven degrees colder than it says it is. I live near a lake and we do tend to be a little colder here than in town or on Post.
Good morning. Shut down the computer early last night due to severe lightning but was surprised this morning by the blob sitting over the Cayman Islands, Winds here are 28 mph gusting to 39 mph. Pressure is 1006 mb. We had .98" rain since midnight last night and still lots of lightning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8423
Good morning, not sure who all is here, or if anyone is this morning. It's fifty degrees supposedly, though the last three days it's been about seven degrees colder than it says it is. I live near a lake and we do tend to be a little colder here than in town or on Post.
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Quoting MahFL:


GW Bush said something similar remember, "either your with us or against us".....spooky......


So did Darth Vader.
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900. MahFL
Quoting greentortuloni:


What is this? 1920's Germany? "It's all THIER fault! Once we eliminate THEM, the world will be safe! Anyone who disagrees with US is one of THEM! Beware of THEM!"



GW Bush said something similar remember, "either your with us or against us".....spooky......
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SubtropicalStormOtto's heading had turned northward to dueNorth
from its previous heading of (5.4degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
StS.Otto's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~1.2mph(~1.9km/h)
from its previous moving speed of ~3.7mph(~5.9km/h)
Invest 97L -- 6hours between consecutive center positions
5Oct 12pmGMT - - 19.5n65.3w - - 30knots - - 1006mb -- NHC-ATCF *19.0n65.3w
5Oct 06pmGMT - - 20.6n65.7w - - 30knots - - 1004mb -- NHC-ATCF
6Oct 12amGMT - - 21.4n66.2w - - 30knots - - 1002mb -- NHC-ATCF *21.5n66.1w
6Oct 06amGMT - - 21.9n66.7w - - 30knots - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
StD.17 -- 3hours between consecutive center positions
6Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.2n67.0w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
6Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.0n68.0w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb -- #2
StS.Otto -- 6hours between consecutive center positions
6Oct 09pmGMT - - 23.2n68.3w - - 60mph - - - - 990mb -- #3
7Oct 03amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 65mph - - - - 990mb -- #4
7Oct 09amGMT - - 23.6n68.2w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- #5
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers.
30knots=~34.5mph=~55.6km/h __ 35mph=~56.3km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h

Copy&paste 19.5n65.3w, 20.6n65.7w, 21.4n66.2w, 21.9n66.7w, 22.2n67.0w-23.0n68.0w, 23.0n68.0w-23.2n68.3w, 23.2n68.3w-23.5n68.2w, 23.5n68.2w-23.6n68.2w, mzo, elh into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 21^hours.

^ The 3 northernmost line-segments individually span 6hours between dots.
The southernmost line-segment spans 3hours between dots.
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If your still there have a nice day Baha.
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Right, I'm out now. Maybe I'll get a chance to look in later today, depending on how hectic it gets .... either way,

ENJOY!
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I agree a combination of both I'm sure that's why were all still learning.
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Current Conditions


Nassau Airport, Bahamas, The (Airport)
Updated: 5:00 AM EDT on October 07, 2010

79 °F / 26 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 69 °F / 21 °C
Wind: 15 mph / 24 km/h / from the NNE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.85 in / 1011 hPa
Visibility: 9.0 miles / 15.0 kilometers
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1772 ft / 540 m
Mostly Cloudy 3937 ft / 1200 m
(Above Ground Level)

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gordy,

Maybe the confusion hasn't been over what constitutes hyperactive, but instead over some hyperactive imaginations based on forecast models.... lol
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ON my way out.... Today's Key Players???



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Quoting trunkmonkey:

With another season gone we will all spend the entire winter predicting what will happen next year with the storms we all call hurricanes.
That and watch Southern Hemisphere systems.... lol.... and chewing over this one....
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Yeah, Baha he was responding to something I posted. No one I think is saying it has not been busy this year. I think a couple of the classification are suspicious.But the real problem I think has been the over hype of all the models long range wise, that brought a lot of these storms into Fl. and the gulf and a constant drum beat by some that the steering was changing any minute.But it has been interesting, and I am sure if you are in Mexico you can't wait till it's over.
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Another season with NO hurricanes, well looking back that's good for the country, as well for those who usually suffer in such events.
Even saw some great discussion, there were rants and raves, about this storm or that storm,
but the bottom line is Mother-nature will do any damn thing she wants, no matter what we say, or
what the most powerful computer predicts,
she will take her own course, regardless of us.
With another season gone we will all spend the entire winter predicting what will happen next year with the storms we all call hurricanes.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
8:30 AM IST October 7 2010
======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and lays centered at 16.5N 84.5E, or about 180 kms southeast of Visakhapatnam, 300 kms south of Gopalpur, and 700 kms south southwest of Digha.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further and move initially northward for some time and then recurve north northeastward.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over northwest and west central Bay of Bengal west of 87.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 10-20 knots. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear to the north of the system center. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 19.0N in association with an anti-cyclonic circulation over Myanmar. Sea surface temperature (30-32C), and the ocean heat content (more than 100 kj/cm2) over the region are favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence are also favorable for intensification.
Hey, HGW... this caught my eye yesterday afternoon.... and did u see the Invest in the SIndian already???? amazing.... lol
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MOrning all.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It wasn't necessarily the upper atmospheric conditions that were unfavorable (at least, not after, say, the second week of August). Rather, it was more that we didn't get the expected steering pattern, which makes it seem like this season hasn't lived up to the preseason hype.
Have to agree with you on this one, Kori... it's not like the season hasn't been hyperactive; we went for, what, 6 weeks without a single day when there wasn't at least one storm; several multi-storm days; a cat 5 potential plus several other majors; 15 storms before the 7th October, with the potential for as many as 5 more.... it's just that there were some people out there who interpreted hyperactive as "many devastating landfalls". Even the historical record of the most highly active seasons doesn't support that supposition, but more of what we have seen, that is, numerous "fish" storms. What wasn't fully understood [guess this is another major area of development for TC forecasting] was exactly what the steering patterns would be. After the season is over, pple like Bastardi and so on still will have to figure out why their landfall predictions didn't pan out, but IIRC, the majority of reputable forecasters didn't call for increased landfall [I think Klotzbach and Grey may be the exception, with a call for increased landfall potential either in the CAR or along the US east coast, forget which].

In any case, I'm leary about writing off this season as "closed" for landfall, even major landfall, anywhere in the basin. 2010 has had some surprising moments - almost from the beginning things we didn't expect have happened - and I have a feeling those moments are not quite done. I'm wanting to feel relieved because we seem to have made it through September relatively unscathed, but I'm waiting for that fat lady singer before I breathe all the way out.....
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The little system just ne of Nicaragua has everything going for it right now except the shear north of Cuba is a bear right now.
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886. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
8:30 AM IST October 7 2010
======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and lays centered at 16.5N 84.5E, or about 180 kms southeast of Visakhapatnam, 300 kms south of Gopalpur, and 700 kms south southwest of Digha.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further and move initially northward for some time and then recurve north northeastward.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over northwest and west central Bay of Bengal west of 87.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 10-20 knots. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear to the north of the system center. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 19.0N in association with an anti-cyclonic circulation over Myanmar. Sea surface temperature (30-32C), and the ocean heat content (more than 100 kj/cm2) over the region are favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence are also favorable for intensification.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
That's private. I can't let the NWO get his name. Let's just say he likes tea and he wants to trim the fat at all agencies. Possibly merge NHC into Homeland Security.


What is this? 1920's Germany? "It's all THIER fault! Once we eliminate THEM, the world will be safe! Anyone who disagrees with US is one of THEM! Beware of THEM!"

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
This is the type of comment that big govermental agencies love. The loyal "citizen" who completely trusts the bureaucracy and who is willing to pay his last hard earned dollar for plenty of nothing.



If you aren't joking just to cause trouble, you are just plain crazy sir, go and get some rest, then straighten out your thinking big time, better yet let friends or family do it, cause it seems like you need intervention...
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It looks to me like Ottawa is either very close to being, or he's done the transition to being considered fully tropical.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
That's private. I can't let the NWO get his name. Let's just say he likes tea and he wants to trim the fat at all agencies. Possibly merge NHC into Homeland Security.


That's stupid. Merging the NHC into homeland security won't save any money...what it will do is end up probably COSTING money and reducing effectiveness.

I saw your previous post about questionable motives at the NHC and I don't know where you get off. Typical partisan tripe.
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X
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AL, 17, 2010100706, , BEST, 0, 235N, 682W, 55, 990, SS
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Boys will be boys!
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07/0545 UTC 23.7N 68.4W ST3.0 OTTO
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
That's private. I can't let the NWO get his name. Let's just say he likes tea and he wants to trim the fat at all agencies. Possibly merge NHC into Homeland Security.


Interesting.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Who is this congressman?
That's private. I can't let the NWO get his name. Let's just say he likes tea and he wants to trim the fat at all agencies. Possibly merge NHC into Homeland Security.
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874. xcool
yeah so busyyy
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Quoting xcool:
hey hey


Good evening! Seems like I haven't seen you around in forever.
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872. xcool
hey hey
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Bordonara You need to change the image from floater 4 to 1 to show OttO. 4,the one on your blog, is the mess over the islands.

OK, thanks!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Bordonara You need to change the image from floater 4 to 1 to show OttO. 4,the one on your blog, is the mess over the islands.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I sit in the camp that one or possibly two systems are possible in the western Caribbean. Maybe even one fairly strong but I think after all is said and done this season has not lived up to the dire warning that had been issued. Although hindsight is always 20/20, everything was there except upper atmospheric conditions which are certainty not getting better at this time in the season.


It wasn't necessarily the upper atmospheric conditions that were unfavorable (at least, not after, say, the second week of August). Rather, it was more that we didn't get the expected steering pattern, which makes it seem like this season hasn't lived up to the preseason hype.
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Below are the 2 only cases of STS's attaining hurricane force winds without becomming fully tropical.

One is in 1968. Dubbed Subtropical Storm 1 which attained 80 MPH winds!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

The other is Subtropical Storm 1 in 1979. It briefly attained 75 MPH winds!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Link11:55PM CDT Blog Update on STS Otto, AZ Hailstorm, Portlight in NC and N TX Weather. Please stop by and leave your comments. Thanks :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I sit in the camp that one or possibly two systems are possible in the western Caribbean. Maybe even one fairly strong but I think after all is said and done this season has not lived up to the dire warning that had been issued. Although hindsight is always 20/20, everything was there except upper atmospheric conditions which are certainty not getting better at this time in the season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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