Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 165 - 115

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting Floodman:


You have vastly underestimated the number of squirrels here, I'm afraid. The fact is, squrrels are drawn by nuts, and, well, we have a large number of them here too
LOL :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those using the incorrect developmental designators, here's a snippet from the official NOAA/ATCF list:

TS - tropical storm
TY - typhoon
ST - super typhoon
TC - tropical cyclone
HU - hurricane
SD - subtropical depression
SS - subtropical storm
EX - extratropical systems
PT - post tropical
IN - inland
DS - dissipating
LO - low
WV - tropical wave
ET - extrapolated
XX - unknown
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:





You found the report, Good Job...

You really have stepped it up Sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
161. Skyepony (Mod)
outoftheblue~ Your lovebugs are safe & enjoying the weather here in east central FL..

TELUK WONDAMA, Indonesia -- Helicopters dropped food to isolated villages and security forces helped clear debris and search for survivors as the number of people killed by floods and landslides across Asia climbed Wednesday to nearly 110.

Three-quarters of the deaths were in eastern Indonesia, where days of torrential downpours caused mud and debris to crash into hillside villages, damaging thousands of homes. Twenty-six fatalities were reported in Vietnam.

On the nearby Chinese island of Hainan, 64,000 people had to be evacuated.

The greatest panic was caused when a river burst its banks in the hardest-hit Indonesian village of Wasior early this week, sweeping away residents in a fast-moving wall of sludge, rocks and heavy logs that left thigh-high water in its wake.

"Many people didn't have time to save themselves," said one woman, Ira Wanoni, adding that others were screaming "Flood! Flood!" as they tried to scramble to high ground.

"It was such a sad scene," said Arbi Korain, whose three children were all at school at the time. "My wife and I climbed onto our roof. We just sat and watched as cars, motorcycles ... and bodies ... drifted past."

With roads and bridges across West Papua province impassable or completely destroyed, it took days for help to reach many of the victims. more
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Can you post some of the pics?


No pics, but there's this:

TORNADO WARNING
Issue Date: 814 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010
Expiration: 900 AM MST WED OCT 06 2010

Expires:201010061600;;
WFUS55 KFGZ 061514
TORFGZ
AZC005-025-061600-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.TO.W.0012.101006T1514Z-101006T1600Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
814 AM MST WED OCT 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA...
* UNTIL 900 AM MST
* AT 810 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 24 MILES
SOUTH OF PARKS...OR 12 MILES WEST OF SEDONA...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM MST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM MST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
&&
LAT...LON 3538 11194 3529 11166 3482 11193 3489 11213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1513Z 201DEG 36KT 3494 11199
$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the season is indeed over in some respects. Sure there may be a couple of more storms. But it's in the 40's here in Louisiana. The fronts/troughs traditionally block storms from CONUS this late in the season. It is interesting that the activity level predicted this year was somewhat accurate, but it is clear that the steering currents cannot be accurately predicted more than a couple of weeks out (we had so many fish storms, i.e. non CONUS). I am in new Orleans and was told how bad the August steeing would be and then the Sep steering would be frightful (nope). Of course we worried, not realizing that this predicting of where future not yet formed storms might go is not scientifically reliable. The predictions were completely wrong. ..now we're in Oct, nothing on the horizon, and it's chilly here. This blog is great to get information on tracking, models, satellite, radar images, Dr. Masters' excellent thoughts, etc.., but the forecasting of activity in conjunction with steering has not been accurate. Indeed it has been so wrong that it could never pass any scientific confidence requirements. I'll keep an eye out there the next couple of weeks, but if these fronts keep coming through I believe we are in the clear. I can't speak for very southern Fla or the islands, since I doubt the fronts go that far south all that often...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guess I'm the odd Floridian out. I went to work this morning in a sleeveless shirt, shorts, boots and snake gaiters at 50 '! LOL!Too many years in NoDak. I'm so broken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a few local "Summerdale AL" observations:
There have been only a few hummingbirds and wasps this year. NO Lovebugs at all! Usually we have had two outbreaks by now. My grass never turned brown at all this summer as locally we had more than our share of the wet stuff. I have had water in my cypress swamp all summer as well. The fire ants, well in the last month they have been in my house twice. I have killed many many mounds. I think we might be in for a wet fall as they dont usually come so close. Been loving the cool weather and low dew points, but I think we might still have an indian summer at some point. Oh yeah, one more thing.. the monarchs are migrating it is the last thing we usually see moving east to west in the fall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Youtube posters comments
"Storm came out of no where, temperatures dropped 30 degrees in minutes. For reference we were still having temperatures in the 103-106 range just days before. Highly unusual weather, never seen anything like it here, especially this time of the year. Filmed in my backyard"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
PanhandleChuck: Located 50ish miles east on I-10 in the big city of Crestview. Oh Boy! Been in cold weather too (Delaware, Germany,Arkansas) and if its below 70F, I'm cold.


Been to Crestview a couple of times, wouldn't mind living more towards that area, but I already have a long enough drive to work from Milton
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Models sure have one forming. Looks like it comes from the blob from DR energy. Don't like what might happen with that as South Florida might have a problem looming from it.


Wait but people on here tell me that the season is over!! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm sweeps Phoenix
BY AMANDA LEE MYERS THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Advertisement

PHOENIX -- High winds, heavy rain and golf ball-sized hail swept through the Phoenix area Tuesday, downing power lines, severely damaging homes and temporarily shutting down Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

Also Tuesday, an early winter storm that chased record heat out of northern Nevada swamped Reno with record-setting rain and dropped enough snow at the top of the Sierra to close a mountain highway pass near Lake Tahoe.

In Phoenix, no flights arrived or left Sky Harbor for about a half-hour because of winds as strong as 70 mph, lightning, hail and rain, airport spokeswoman Deborah Ostreicher said. She said some flights were diverted but most circled the airport, waiting for the weather to clear.

Mesa fire Capt. Forrest Smith said a microburst downed 19 power poles, at least three of which landed on homes. In all, 38 homes were damaged by the storm, 12 severely, and about 100 people were displaced, Smith said.

There were no immediate reports of serious injuries.

The storms also flooded roads and dropped golf-ball-sized hail in the metropolitan Phoenix area. The Arizona Department of Transportation said flooding caused major backups on Interstate 10 and U.S. 60.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Where in Ohio? I grew up in Toledo, and have been in FL panhandle since 1993.


Raised in Y-town, lived most of my adult life in Akron
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PanhandleChuck: Located 50ish miles east on I-10 in the big city of Crestview. Oh Boy! Been in cold weather too (Delaware, Germany,Arkansas) and if its below 70F, I'm cold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
What do you think about a possible TC late next week in the Western Caribbean?


Models sure have one forming. Looks like it comes from the blob from DR energy. Don't like what might happen with that as South Florida might have a problem looming from it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Where in Ohio? I grew up in Toledo, and have been in FL panhandle since 1993.


I am a ROCKET...1989-1991
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Can you post some of the pics?
I would, but don't know how to do that on WU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would normally update the graphics on a TD on my website.....but, not TD17 as its not worth it to me. Also, time to get ready for game time. LETS GO RAYS
What do you think about a possible TC late next week in the Western Caribbean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


From the P-cola area? I moved here from Ohio 3 1/2 years ago... I ain't never going back


Where in Ohio? I grew up in Toledo, and have been in FL panhandle since 1993.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would normally update the graphics on a TD on my website.....but, not TD17 as its not worth it to me. Also, time to get ready for game time. LETS GO RAYS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lhwhelk:
Severe Weather in ArizonaA friend writes from AZ that 2 tornadoes have touched down in Coconino County--in Flagstaff and Sedona. We're talking mountainous country here. And that baseball size hail is falling in Fountain Hills currently (she had sent me pictures of yesterday's hail), and that skylights all over Phoenix are being broken by hail.


Can you post some of the pics?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe Weather in ArizonaA friend writes from AZ that 2 tornadoes have touched down in Coconino County--in Flagstaff and Sedona. We're talking mountainous country here. And that baseball size hail is falling in Fountain Hills currently (she had sent me pictures of yesterday's hail), and that skylights all over Phoenix are being broken by hail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IF this storm in the Caribbean forms north of Honduras, and IF the conditions are right, we could have a nasty storm down there. Remember Mitch (1998), Wilma (2005), Keith (2000), Paloma (2008), Ida (2009), Michelle (2001).. I could go more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
I see why we have STD. People are driving around and stopping at 4 corners of town!


LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see why we have STD. People are driving around and stopping at 4 corners of town!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Being new I was wondering if the blog nastiness is normal or just has its moments.
PanhandleChuck,42F at 4AM is not a cool snap it a COLD snap. For all, I hope we do not have an extended season for I have extremely bad luck with December TCs. Cat5Hurricane, my wife is from your area and already wants us to take a road trip back home.
It's normal but it has it's moments. The best advice I can give you is to just try to ignore it. Welcome to the blog. Even with the nastiness you will get very valuable information here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Being new I was wondering if the blog nastiness is normal or just has its moments.
PanhandleChuck,42F at 4AM is not a cool snap it a COLD snap. For all, I hope we do not have an extended season for I have extremely bad luck with December TCs. Cat5Hurricane, my wife is from your area and already wants us to take a road trip back home.


From the P-cola area? I moved here from Ohio 3 1/2 years ago... I ain't never going back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
I drove through that town a few times. Just four corners, not much happening there.


I hear ya! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
I drove through that town a few times. Just four corners, not much happening there.

Lonely town....yes. Though only 4 corners, its easy to find, but sometimes its hard to find your way back out! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning All, Looks like we have soon to be Otto on our hands. The new advisory from the Nhc put it at 60 Mph which is pretty reasonable to me and for once i agree with the track too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ookla:

I was just about to post this very thing. I'm shivering in New Orleans, and even though the models say storm season isn't over, it sure feels like it is, emotionally.


Yup, I went to get a paper this morning in shorts and a T-shirts (mistake).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update 10AM CDT on STD 17, NC Flooding & N TX Weather:Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
122. JRRP
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STD Really??? What about SDS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Being new I was wondering if the blog nastiness is normal or just has its moments.
PanhandleChuck,42F at 4AM is not a cool snap it a COLD snap. For all, I hope we do not have an extended season for I have extremely bad luck with December TCs. Cat5Hurricane, my wife is from your area and already wants us to take a road trip back home.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
119. afj3
Anybody see the latest GFS run? Something slated to brew in the SW Caribbean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STD17

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 165 - 115

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
57 °F
Overcast