Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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265. JLPR2
Quoting oracle28:


How many years without a major in that timeframe? Which is what I said, no more MAJORS this year.


Not impossible to get a major, but what you say makes sense since it is more unlikely than likely.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8520
We could see monsoonal storms forming- the elongated types with no COC that trues up to a tropical storm. At least that is what I am hoping. Of course, tropical storm formation is very possible through December as the Caribbean SST is still warm enough to sustain tropical systems.

But what do I know. We will soon find out. So let's enjoy the break for the time being.
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Quoting reedzone:
1990-1999, only 4 years without a named storm in October in the Western Caribbean.


How many years without a major in that timeframe? Which is what I said, no more MAJORS this year.
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well, the rain never came at Villa Fontana, Carolina, PR.
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258. afj3
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I saw it. Looks like a system sitting just north of Honduras 174 hours out.


Season still has a way to go...
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Wow, it's official: I've worn the "g" and the "n" off the Ignore button
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Quoting reedzone:
1990-1999, only 4 years without a named storm in October in the Western Caribbean.


I said Major, not named storm. There is a difference, you do realize that, right?
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Quoting BlizzardBeast99:

Seriously? You DO SEE that through to the west of it, right? and its a Sub tropical depression, soon to be a storm, but it will barely be a tropical storm. not to mention its movement to the north west into that trough, might i add to this. i am sure hurricane andrew was a different story, because of the time of year, idk about a month and a half ago 18 years ago. but considering that time, usually there isnt any blocking factor to prevent a storm from striking land that time in the season. now as of this moment we tend to see throughs that develope and hang off the coast most of the time. so unless sub trop. storm otto can turn south and track across cuba then go north to florida, and magically go through explosive strengthening, which is wishful thinking, but untill that happens, just let noaa do their job by telling us all where the storms are going. because i dont know about you, but i do not have a crystal ball...


This is a troll...easy...wait for it...
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Quoting reedzone:
Sorry, but I am now reporting people that state an untrue fact about the season or storm. If they can't back up their "facts" then I will hit this "!"

Enough is enough, we have lost many good bloggers from all of this.


Why do you have to tell us.....just do it
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252. JLPR2
Quoting BlizzardBeast99:



And you fell for it, thats a troll impersonating Jeff
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8520
Quoting igwespike:
Dr. Masters made the xkcd "map of online communities" today, look for his region in the "Blogosphere" section. I love how it changes from March to September...
i've never been more in love with anything online ever..! i'm a map guy :D THANKS!!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Minus the BP workers, that's an awesome picture
.....looks just like my beach here in sarasota....minus those ugly monstrous oil rigs your state allows!!,messes up the view horribly,awful imo!!!
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Quoting miamiheat:
quoting NCHurricane2009
Why did it suddently get quiet on this blog, LOL?

cause most of the bloggers in here are Bastardi's echoes ,USA & Florida landfalls WHISCASTERS ,,,
and if half the coastal communities of the CONUS aren"t pounded into oblivion, they call it a dead or quiet season.
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BBL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24099
1990-1999, only 4 years without a named storm in October in the Western Caribbean.
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Dr. Masters made the xkcd "map of online communities" today, look for his region in the "Blogosphere" section. I love how it changes from March to September...
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Quoting reedzone:


Reported! That is your opinion, not an actual fact. It is my opinion, which could be right or wrong, that we can get a couple more storms, 2 Hurricanes and one last Major. Climatology agrees with my opinion. I just put out the facts showing that there has been 5 years with no storms in the Caribbean so far from 2000.

So, you reported him for stating HIS opinion?
Get a grip Reed, and stop taking all these posts so personally.
You are damaging your own credibility here.
Relax a bit, Man!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24099
Quoting Jeff9642:
I honestly think STD17 will hit FL as a Major hurricane. All preperations should be taken at this time!


Seriously? You DO SEE that through to the west of it, right? and its a Sub tropical depression, soon to be a storm, but it will barely be a tropical storm. not to mention its movement to the north west into that trough, might i add to this. i am sure hurricane andrew was a different story, because of the time of year, idk about a month and a half ago 18 years ago. but considering that time, usually there isnt any blocking factor to prevent a storm from striking land that time in the season. now as of this moment we tend to see throughs that develope and hang off the coast most of the time. so unless sub trop. storm otto can turn south and track across cuba then go north to florida, and magically go through explosive strengthening, which is wishful thinking, but untill that happens, just let noaa do their job by telling us all where the storms are going. because i dont know about you, but i do not have a crystal ball...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Models sure have one forming. Looks like it comes from the blob from DR energy. Don't like what might happen with that as South Florida might have a problem looming from it.
...more likely to be spawned by enrgy moving over panama from the epac imo
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Note that the average speed of movement between its 2 positions is only 7mph(11.3km/h) less than the maximum sustained winds.
If forward (nearly northwestward) were designated the 12o'clock position, 35mph northwestward winds at the 3o'clock(maximum)position strongly implies no southeastward winds at the 9o'clock(mininum)position.
So unless StD.17 speed of movement has slowed down considerably since the last position report, it's too busy tearing itself apart to consolidate&strengthen into a (Sub)TropicalStorm.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
231. myway
Quoting reedzone:
Out of a 10 year span, only 5 years ended up with no storm in the Western Caribbean in the month of October. There is still lots of heat, one last major Hurricane is reasonable. Now what happens if a major storm does form and move north this year? Lets use Wilma (2005) and Ida from last year as an example..

Look at Wilma, she actually strengthened before landfall in South FL. Though if a storm were to head north of Tampa, the cool waters would weaken it some, not totally. Ida weakened mainly because of wind shear, not really the cool waters in the Northern Gulf. It became Extratropical as it merged with a Hybrid low coming from the BOC. If shear wasn’t an issue, Ida would have become a Major Hurricane and then make landfall in the Panhandle as a Category 2. Also, if a strong storm in the Caribbean moves quickly, weakening would be slow to occur because the storm would not have enough time to sit under those cool temps.


And the other 5 years we had nothing. So it is just a c#$p shoot.
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Quoting reedzone:


I disagree, but we ave our own opinions which could be right or wrong. I believe we can push out 4 more systems, 2 of those possibly Hurricanes one of them a Major Hurricane (the last hurrah for the WC). There's still alot of heat that needs to get out. Again, this is only my opinion.
.....the heat will be diffusing. just like it is now,to the NE out into the open atlantic as it does most years,seasons not over until nov and theirs a reason for that,however,waters are cooling quicker than ave and the record high sst's are long gone!!!...2 more named tc's afte otto,one cane,a mJor not out of the question though
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Quoting reedzone:
Out of a 10 year span, only 5 years ended up with no storm in the Western Caribbean in the month of October. There is still lots of heat, one last major Hurricane is reasonable. Now what happens if a major storm does form and move north this year? Lets use Wilma (2005) and Ida from last year as an example..

Look at Wilma, she actually strengthened before landfall in South FL. Though if a storm were to head north of Tampa, the cool waters would weaken it some, not totally. Ida weakened mainly because of wind shear, not really the cool waters in the Northern Gulf. It became Extratropical as it merged with a Hybrid low coming from the BOC. If shear wasn’t an issue, Ida would have become a Major Hurricane and then make landfall in the Panhandle as a Category 2. Also, if a strong storm in the Caribbean moves quickly, weakening would be slow to occur because the storm would not have enough time to sit under those cool temps.


We won't see another major this year.
Mark.It.Down.
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Quoting Skyepony:
TELUK WONDAMA, Indonesia -- Helicopters dropped food to isolated villages and security forces helped clear debris and search for survivors as the number of people killed by floods and landslides across Asia climbed Wednesday to nearly 110.

Three-quarters of the deaths were in eastern Indonesia, where days of torrential downpours caused mud and debris to crash into hillside villages, damaging thousands of homes.

The greatest panic was caused when a river burst its banks in the hardest-hit Indonesian village of Wasior early this week, sweeping away residents in a fast-moving wall of sludge, rocks and heavy logs that left thigh-high water in its wake.

With roads and bridges across West Papua province impassable or completely destroyed, it took days for help to reach many of the victims.

This area is not long out of being not just "third world," but "fourth world." Roads and bridges are a new thing, and with the terrain ("karst" for you geologists, "egg crate" for the rest of you), getting anything in the way of help or restoration is going to be a serious problem. Yes, I've been in the general area, though not in Wasior itself. My daughter and her family live in Papua.
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Out of a 10 year span, only 5 years ended up with no storm in the Western Caribbean in the month of October. There is still lots of heat, one last major Hurricane is reasonable. Now what happens if a major storm does form and move north this year? Lets use Wilma (2005) and Ida from last year as an example..

Look at Wilma, she actually strengthened before landfall in South FL. Though if a storm were to head north of Tampa, the cool waters would weaken it some, not totally. Ida weakened mainly because of wind shear, not really the cool waters in the Northern Gulf. It became Extratropical as it merged with a Hybrid low coming from the BOC. If shear wasn’t an issue, Ida would have become a Major Hurricane and then make landfall in the Panhandle as a Category 2. Also, if a strong storm in the Caribbean moves quickly, weakening would be slow to occur because the storm would not have enough time to sit under those cool temps.
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Greetings all..
Bright breezy conditions here with the occasional shower..
Real nice weather.

Except for our TD, which is still trying to decide it's own future, all is quiet across the Atlantic.

I sure did not think I would be saying that, on Oct.6, a couple of months ago.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24099
Quoting reedzone:
While the GFS backed down on development on this run, I notice something very interesting. The shield is gone! The setup at 180 hours is good for a storm to affect about New Orleans, eastward. Again, this ridge is going to break down and there is a good chance that if anything forms, it would head north as the troughs go by. Hurricane Season still threatens the USA with a good risk for a landfalling Tropical Cyclone.


How exciting!! Thanks for the update, good to know Texas is safe...
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Quoting hcubed:


And I think at least one of those squirrels has an account on WU...
My daughter's hermit crabs were going nuts last night for some odd reason. Maybe they were freaked out by the squirrels running on the roof. Signs!!!! LOL Beautiful windy day here in Boca Raton.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


From my understanding of previous NHC reports on old storms, it seems they look for warm core anticyclonic outflow on the storm top to call it tropical. See right now, the ULL is on top of the storm, which indicates that whatever warm core there is is not fully vertical. If that warm core can continue to grow vertically from those nice looking storm clouds, it'll begin "punching out" the ULL, and you'll begin to see the ULL reversing to an ULH (upper-level high), and that upper-level high will be a signature that the warm core sturcture is now fully vertical.

The way you can see that ULH forming is when you start seeing the classic cirrus anticyclonic outflow clouds on the storm top as you would see in a classical tropical storm/hurricane/tropical depression. Another way this can become tropical is that the surface center continues NW and leaves the ULL behind, making it much easier for this thing to develop a warm core ULH.
thanks for a reply
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SubtropicalDepression17's heading had turned westward to (4.1degrees west of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (2.1degrees north of) NorthWest
StD.17's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~28mph(~45.1km/h)
from its previous moving speed of ~4.7mph(~7.5km/h)
247.5wsw - 270w - 292.5wnw - 315nw - 337.5nnw _ 15.81n84.3w
Invest 97L -- 6hours between consecutive center positions
4Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.8n64.2w - - 25knots - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.7n65.8w*17.6n64.8w
5Oct 12amGMT - - 18.1n64.6w - - 25knots - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.5n64.5w
5Oct 06amGMT - - 18.6n65.0w - - 25knots - - 1006mb -- NHC-ATCF *18.5n65.0w
5Oct 12pmGMT - - 19.5n65.3w - - 30knots - - 1006mb -- NHC-ATCF *19.0n65.3w
5Oct 06pmGMT - - 20.6n65.7w - - 30knots - - 1004mb -- NHC-ATCF
6Oct 12amGMT - - 21.4n66.2w - - 30knots - - 1002mb -- NHC-ATCF *21.5n66.1w
6Oct 06amGMT - - 21.9n66.7w - - 30knots - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
StD.17 -- 3hours between consecutive center positions
6Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.2n67.0w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
6Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.0n68.0w - - 35mph - - - 1001mb -- #2
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers.
25knots=~28.8mph=46.3km/h __ 30knots=~34.5mph=~55.6km/h __ 35mph=~56.3km/h

Copy&paste 17.8n64.2w, 18.1n64.6w, 18.6n65.0w, 19.5n65.3w, 20.6n65.7w-21.4n66.2w, 21.4n66.2w-21.9n66.7w, 21.9n66.7w-22.2n67.0w, 22.2n67.0w-23.0n68.0w, ggt, rcy, stx into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 21^hours.

^ The northernmost line-segment spans 3hours between dots.
The 3 following line-segments span 6hours between dots.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
216. MahFL
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Minus the BP workers, that's an awesome picture


Also the oil rig in the water......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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