Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting katadman:
What's up, Flood? Cool with crisp clear skies here! Gorgeous fall weather. Same with you?


Sorry, man...I keep getting pulled away...yeah, pretty muhc the same here
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
atcf says we have STS Otto

AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS


I think it should have been classified a STS at 11 a.m. but 5 p.m. sounds good. It's looking even better with convection trying to wrap around the circulation.
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Quoting RENONV:


I’m fairly confident Floodman was referring to this kind of a troll “In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into a desired emotional response[1] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.


Get out of my head!

LOL
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

???


I was just trying to say that the statement oracle28 declared was not a fact yet, but I got bashed (again). So now I'm reporting those who wishcast/downcast without evidence. There was really nothing to "fight" about. It is Oracle28's OPINION that there will be no major Hurricane. It is my OPINION that we will have one more major in the Western Caribbean. There is no right or wrong on this yet until of if it occurs.
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

???


go back a few posts.
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atcf says we have STS Otto

AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS
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Quoting BlizzardBeast99:

explain the means of troll... because from the way this is shaping up, first, the forward motion of the storm almost 10 mph to the northwest into the very large trough not far from the storm also competed with the size if the storm, which isnt very large, and also the atmosphere that it is spinning in. That atmosphere does not have nearly the energy that the carrubean has, and thus even if it was a troll, it stands a much better chance by being sheared apart than developing into this monster. You know, i am not looking to purposely burst bubbles on here, but just because nicole was a sleeping giant does not mean that this will be the case,and that this will keep happening until nov.30th or later., i mean they formed in different ways and their tracks will be much different. if you want to see your troll than like Jeff Masters says, wait 5-7 days out in the southern carribean, cause the south west atlantic has had it from the recent hurricanes like Earl that leeched most energy that was there.


I’m fairly confident Floodman was referring to this kind of a troll “In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into a desired emotional response[1] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.
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Quoting reedzone:


Afternoon John,
I posted a new blog concerning my prediction on the rest of the continued active Tropics.


Good afternoon to you too Allan! Nice update! Yes Wilma was a BAD storm! It seems that back when she was moving away from Mexico and toward Florida nobody seemed to think she'd re-develop into a major. I don't know how they didn't expect it...SE FL was caught completely unprepared for Cat 3/4 winds and alot of the major damage occurred down there. I don't know how they didn't take it more seriously...
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Things are awfully quiet compared to what I thought they'd be right now...gorgeous weather here in Fort Myers though! Almost clear blue skies, high in the low to mid 80's with a stiff breeze. Lows in the upper 50's/low 60's at night...autumn is teasing us!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Afternoon all!
GOES Satellite August / September 2010

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? Set to the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."


Afternoon John,
I posted a new blog concerning my prediction on the rest of the continued active Tropics.
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Afternoon all!
GOES Satellite August / September 2010

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? Set to the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
what is a WHIS caster?



dyslexic
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292. txjac
Usually I'm confused by all the pretty graphs, charts and models ...

Today I find myself more confused by the appearance of a shopping cart?
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Quoting Grothar:


Your're too young to remember that!


I'm not :P
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


HA HA that's awesome!

I still see that the GFS is developing something in the western Caribbean in about 2 weeks---the storm develops differently in every run. But there's almost always something. Season not over yet.

Too bad the P storm isn't Pauline, then we could talk about her perils ;)


Your're too young to remember that!
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thanks, that was the map i needed to post for evidence toward my disagreement.
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284. myway
Quoting reedzone:


Which is CLEARLY your opinion! We may in fact see a major.


May not. His opinion is just as acurate as your opinion @ this point.
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Portlight Disaster Relief

As StormJunkie and portlight assessed the situation in N. Carolina,,,we came across this Older woman who can use a hand from us.


So I ask everyone to consider helping us help her.

We can change Lives for the better,,and thats what were gonna do here.

Cuz we can.


Dayle White is a widow from Jacksonville, NC, who lost about 60% of her belongings and her landlord is unsure when or if she'll be able to return to her home. Her renters' insurance (Nationwide) is denying her coverage due to lack of flood coverage. She is on a limited fixed income. She is in need of a place to live...as well as clothes and furniture. We want to help her get another apartment, as well as some clothing and furniture. She is particularly upset over the loss of her recliner chair, which was destroyed.

Please help as you can. And know that Ms. White will be grateful.

We are identifying others in need and will post their stories as things come into focus.



Portlight 7:24 PM CDT on October 05, 2010

Y'all rock!! We have enough in hand and pledged to get her some clothes and replace her recliner...and a good start on a security deposit on a place...


portlight.org


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basesloaded one out and dont score thats like a cat 2 making a direct hit tampa doom
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Looks like the US potential landfall for a hurricane is going to have to wait until next season. I don't think the GOM or FL have anything to worry about since the westerlies are going to set in for the majority of the month. Most likely we see weak systems like TD 17 here on out.

""
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What's up, Flood? Cool with crisp clear skies here! Gorgeous fall weather. Same with you?
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Quoting Floodman:


This is a troll...easy...wait for it...

explain the means of troll... because from the way this is shaping up, first, the forward motion of the storm almost 10 mph to the northwest into the very large trough not far from the storm also competed with the size if the storm, which isnt very large, and also the atmosphere that it is spinning in. That atmosphere does not have nearly the energy that the carrubean has, and thus even if it was a troll, it stands a much better chance by being sheared apart than developing into this monster. You know, i am not looking to purposely burst bubbles on here, but just because nicole was a sleeping giant does not mean that this will be the case,and that this will keep happening until nov.30th or later., i mean they formed in different ways and their tracks will be much different. if you want to see your troll than like Jeff Masters says, wait 5-7 days out in the southern carribean, cause the south west atlantic has had it from the recent hurricanes like Earl that leeched most energy that was there.
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what is a WHIS caster?


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Caribbean SSTs are never the limiting factor. By that I mean that as Dr. Masters pointed out on Hurricane havene a few weeks back, SSTs in the Caribbean are high enough to support tropical development year-round - if shear and other factors would permit, which of course is not the case in the winter and spring months.
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We will likely see Tropical Storm Otto in the next advisory.
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273. JLPR2
I wonder if we will get a wacky out of season hurricane, like:

Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8514
Hi newbie here! I bumped into this blog several months ago and have been lurking since. Thanks as I am learning lots through some of your posts. I remember someone posted some links that were good for beginners. Can someone repost?
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Quoting miamiheat:
quoting NCHurricane2009
Why did it suddently get quiet on this blog, LOL?

cause most of the bloggers in here are Bastardi's echoes ,USA & Florida landfalls WHISCASTERS ,,,

And then there are people like me who are getting eaten alive by college academics and can hardly find time to blog at this time of year. Now, if you excuse me, I have some differential equations to be doing... unless someone else want to volunteer to do them for me?
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Quoting oracle28:


How many years without a major in that timeframe? Which is what I said, no more MAJORS this year.


Which is CLEARLY your opinion! We may in fact see a major.
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265. JLPR2
Quoting oracle28:


How many years without a major in that timeframe? Which is what I said, no more MAJORS this year.


Not impossible to get a major, but what you say makes sense since it is more unlikely than likely.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8514

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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