Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting robert88:
This isn't 2005 folks.


No, but this is La Nina and we will most likely see more activity, perhaps one storm out of season.
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Quoting TOMSEFLA:
models did a good job with the evolution of otto. they now say no to a tc in the nw carb.
The 12z GFS? Just because that one run doesn't develop the system doesn't mean that all the models say 'no' to development. The ECMWF still develops it. So does the CMC and the NOGAPS (though the CMC and NOGAPS have it making landfall over Nicaragua, and the ECMWF and previous GFS runs don't).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
models did a good job with the evolution of otto. they now say no to a tc in the nw carb.


???
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Quoting robert88:
This isn't 2005 folks.


No one said it was. However.. Otto's formation marks the third earliest use of the 'O' name behind Ophelia and Opal.

15-7-5. Remarkable don't you think how we were sitting here Aug. 21st with only 3-1-0 and now we're talking about Otto?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
409. Skyepony (Mod)
I remember earlier this year, I think winter equinox when parts of South America is affected by outrageous tides, they had it pretty brutal compared to past years.



During the week of Oct. 18, the New York Power Authority (NYPA) will begin removing docks and buoys along the St. Lawrence River in the vicinity of its St. Lawrence-Franklin D. Roosevelt Power Project. The process is expected to take approximately two weeks, but is dependent on river and weather conditions.

Docks and buoys will be removed from the following locations:

In the Town and Village of Waddington:

• Howard Park docks

• Whitaker Park docks

• Old Milk Factory buoys

In the Town of Massena:

• Massena Intake docks

• Hawkins Point dock & buoy

• South Channel buoy

NYPA removes docks and buoys each fall prior to icing conditions to ensure the safety of its workers performing the removal as well as the public, and to avert damage to boats, docks and buoys during winter’s sub-freezing temperatures. NYPA officials will notify the public when the docks and buoys are to be reinstalled next spring.
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Good afternoon everyone! S-TD17 has become Sub-Tropical Storm Otto.. the 15th named storm of the season.

AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
This isn't 2005 folks.
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Quoting reedzone:


Good analysis Miami, this ones an interesting one. Eyes need to be geared towards the Western Caribbean in about 5 days or so.
Yeah, models have been pretty consistent with the development of a tropical cyclone over the southern Caribbean in about 5-7 days. I also see that the 12z GFS didn't develop it, and as usual, the blog went bonkers. It should be noted that if one run doesn't develop a system, it doesn't mean that the system will not develop at all just because that one model run didn't develop it. Instead, you should look at multiple runs from that same model and note how many runs have actually developed the system. Like Hurricanes101 pointed out, what about the other 20 runs that developed the system? Do those not count? They do to me. Because it's a trend.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
ATCF has officially named it:

AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 991, SS, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 70, 90, 1008, 240, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OTTO, M,
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models did a good job with the evolution of otto. they now say no to a tc in the nw carb.
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Skyepony:
BELLEMONT, Ariz. (AP) - Two tornadoes touched down in northern Arizona early Wednesday, derailing 28 cars of a parked freight train, blowing semis off the highway and smashing out the windows of dozens of homes.

The first tornado hit Bellemont - west of Flagstaff - around 5:30 a.m. Wednesday and the second touched down east of the small community a short time later.

Fifteen homes in Bellemont were so badly damaged that they were uninhabitable and the estimated 30 people who lived in them were evacuated. Authorities were setting up a shelter at midmorning Wednesday, said Coconino County Sheriff's Office spokesman Gerry Blair.

About 30 RVs were damaged at a business in Bellemont that sells the vehicles and runs a camp ground for RVs.

No serious injuries or deaths were reported. Two crew members were on the train when it was cast off the tracks around 6:30 a.m. PDT, said Burlington Northern-Santa Fe spokeswoman Lena Kent, but neither was hurt.

The train was hauling cargo from ports in Los Angeles to the east and contained no hazardous materials. The derailed cars are blocking both main rail lines through the area, and the railroad expects to reopen one of the lines by midnight.

In the Baderville area, authorities had to pull a family out of a home where they had been trapped because of damage from the tornado. It wasn't known whether anyone was trapped in homes in the Bellemont area, which is about 20 miles west of Flagstaff.

Severe weather is expected to continue through Wednesday, and comes a day after storms swept across the western U.S., dropping record-setting rain in northern Nevada, pounding Phoenix with hail, and dumping enough snow at the top of the Sierra to close a mountain highway pass.


And another two just got spotted on the ground, one near Sedona, and the other one east of Flagstaff. It's been an interesting few days here in the desert...
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399. Skyepony (Mod)


MIAMI BEACH, Fla. -- The high tide flooded some South Florida streets on Wednesday morning, and it did not even rain.

Miami Beach city engineer Fernando Vasquez blamed the floods on some city streets on the high tide and backed-up storm drains.

Watch: Video

"We experienced supercritical tides, and during the spring and fall equinox, what happens is the moon gets a little closer and the tides rise a little higher," Vasquez said. "We experience a very high elevation of between 3.2 and 3.3 feet above sea level."

Vasquez said the problem arises because of an outdated drainage system, and now there's a plan to fix the problem.

"We have to develop a design that looks into the future, that is sustainable and provides protection for our residents, as well as a strong storm water system that can collect and discharge during rainfall events," Vasquez said.

In the meantime, there are plans in place to install pumps to clear the water from the streets in the near future.

High tide is expected at about 7:45 p.m. Wednesday. Drivers in Miami Beach are urged to use caution.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good afternoon!

Yeah, according to the ATCF 17L has evolved into a subtropical storm, although I currently believe that it is tropical in nature. Upper level winds have relaxed to 5-10 knots and the current impediment on intensification is the dry and stable air basically being fed into 17L by the upper level low to its south. I expect further strengthening of 17L as the upper level low moves off towards the southeast, weakens, and dissipates.

Track-wise 17L is moving into a weakness induced by a series of multiple mid-latitudinal troughs. The system will likely begin an easterly component in motion tomorrow morning. The system will then likely begin to weaken and dissipate due to increasing west-southwesterly shear, dry air, and increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures.

I'll be releasing a blog entry this evening. All my additional thoughts on the system will be there.

Here's the reason why I think 17L consists of a symmetrical warm core, and consequently, is tropical in nature:




Good analysis Miami, this ones an interesting one. Eyes need to be geared towards the Western Caribbean in about 5 days or so.
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Guess the is no rain in Cidra, PR. Some showersa but nothing over-the-top rain. Seemsthat the dry air really hold up the 5-10 inches of rain expected. But none the less. the bands can affect if the dry air moves out of the way.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Baha~ it's listed as tropical on the SSD page, though that isn't always "official". Also has the minimal strength of a tropical storm. I'm guessing Otto at 5.
Thanks, Skye. I'm also noticing the 95B... guess the second 1/2 of their season is underway....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
cat5 - those links were great thanks
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Quoting tkeith:
So a named storm is a named storm, whether tropical or subtropical?
Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good afternoon 09, So i see we have subtropical storm Otto, Interesting call. What are your thoughts miami?
Good afternoon!

Yeah, according to the ATCF 17L has evolved into a subtropical storm, although I currently believe that it is tropical in nature. Upper level winds have relaxed to 5-10 knots and the current impediment on intensification is the dry and stable air basically being fed into 17L by the upper level low to its south. I expect further strengthening of 17L as the upper level low moves off towards the southeast, weakens, and dissipates.

Track-wise 17L is moving into a weakness induced by a series of multiple mid-latitudinal troughs. The system will likely begin an easterly component in motion tomorrow morning. The system will then likely begin to weaken and dissipate due to increasing west-southwesterly shear, dry air, and increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures.

I'll be releasing a blog entry this evening. All my additional thoughts on the system will be there.

Here's the reason why I think 17L consists of a symmetrical warm core, and consequently, is tropical in nature:


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
389. Skyepony (Mod)
Baha~ it's listed as tropical on the SSD page, though that isn't always "official". Also has the minimal strength of a tropical storm. I'm guessing Otto at 5.
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Afternoon all.
Quoting RJT185:
The day ALL of you stopped caring about healthy discussions and free-exchange of opinions is the day that this blog died. For some forsaken reason now everyone is out to disprove everyone. This blog has been dying a very slow death ... and its no one person's fault.
Geez... I guess this blog died back in 2006.... I keep saying, little or none of this is genuinely new. I get really tired of pple condemning the blog and saying it's dead when pple are focussing on the wx in posts all around them.

And since that what I want to talk about....

We've had a nasty wet day here, and it's been rather cool as well, almost unseasonably so. I've gotten used the the first 1/2 of October being hotter than Hades, so this is like culture shock. The front that's due to turn potential Otto to the NE has been the source of this wx, and we got several solid hours of rain this morning across most of the central Bahamas.

On our soon to be named system, it's looking pretty much like a STS right now, though I admit it does seem to be tightening up a bit in the last few frames. Anybody think this is likely to be declared tropical before tomorrow 5 p.m.? It's still got a pretty classical comma shape to me....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
So a named storm is a named storm, whether tropical or subtropical?
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385. Jax82
Here we go

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Quoting CaribBoy:

Current weather in the N Leewards Live Cam

Awesome rain again



The cam is dead ....
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382. JLPR2
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Has anybody suggested a peek at a map of Puerto Rico? I bet WeatherfanPR knows whats on that map. Just sayin'


LOL! I missed that one XD
aspectre, I think you should examine what Carolina, WeatherFanPR was talking about. :P
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380. Skyepony (Mod)
17L.. looking like a minimal, fully tropical storm. Bit naked in the sat pic.
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/1745 UTC 22.9N 68.2W T2.5/2.5 17L
06/1145 UTC 22.4N 66.5W ST2.5 17L
06/0545 UTC 21.7N 66.4W ST1.5 97L
05/2345 UTC 21.7N 66.0W ST1.5 97L
05/1745 UTC 20.5N 65.6W ST1.5 97L


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Oh, I hope they don't agree to demolish the Flagship. Such a wonderful, historical building. Maybe some other hotel change or restaurant chain can buy it and restore it. What a loss if not.
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Good afternoon 09, So i see we have subtropical storm Otto, Interesting call. What are your thoughts miami?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Hurricanes101:


AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS


We should see Subtropical Storm Otto by 5 p.m.
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Current weather in the N Leewards Live Cam

Awesome rain again
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS
Well there you go: subtropical storm Otto.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
17L still remains relatively disorganized with the upper level low intruding it, however, it has improved its structure quite significantly since last night. The system does appear to be on the verge of becoming a subtropical storm, if it isn't one already.




AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS
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Quoting Floodman:
You know, I may have to paint some new characters on the Ignore User button...
This system at 40 west has some good spin to it..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20332
17L still remains relatively disorganized with the upper level low intruding it, however, it has improved its structure quite significantly since last night. The system does appear to be on the verge of becoming a subtropical storm, if it isn't one already.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting oracle28:


reedzone, I appreciate the contribution. We'll agree to disagree, fair enough?


ok, sounds good
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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