Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scott39:
Tropical Atlantic which is the official site for the NHC has.
The official website is the NHC. Although the system is not Otto currently, it will be within the next hour.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting scott39:
Tropical Atlantic which is the official site for the NHC has.


Still not on the NHC page, until they put out there advisories and update the page, no Otto.

Plain and simple.

You can argue all you want.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Yep...pretty much levelled off to almost as good as before all this back crap started...and you? How are you doing?


Late in responding but to answer your question...GREAT. Busy as heck but great...web maintenance and design are time consuming, especially when you don't do it for a living...
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Quoting StormChaser81:


NHC has not designated Otto yet, so he is correct.
Tropical Atlantic which is the official site for the NHC has.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting CosmicEvents:
zzzzz
.
..
The blog is putting me to sleep these days.
I'm going to take a nap, and when I wake up, if I find a suitcase with 2 million dollars in it then I'll know....oh forget it.
.
.
I see a cloud.....moving WEST!!!!
CPB says...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... also noting an invest in the SIndian already.... at 4.7S,81.9E. Isn't it a wee bit early for them?



And Navy has Otto posted already...
Yea! It is a little bit early. But we have been known to get pre-season storms. An example of one is Asma formed on October 16, 2008 dissipated on October 23, 2008.

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Quoting scott39:
Otto is O!!


NHC has not designated Otto yet, so he is correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Reed, there's a better one.... some A storm from April or May a few years back.... Ana? Alison? I forget the name, but remember the imagery.... it was in that little "gulf" there where GA and SC meet....


Andrea of 2007!
Had Hurricane force winds before it became a named Subtropical System.

Wunderground shows it nicely..


Here's the image..
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Quoting NASA101:


19 Storms..are you DREAMING!! We still haven't reached "O" yet!! LMAO!!

Two more storms at best...I predict no more than 15! I actually think the season is over...
Otto is O!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting BahaHurican:
Reed, there's a better one.... some A storm from April or May a few years back.... Ana? Alison? I forget the name, but remember the imagery.... it was in that little "gulf" there where GA and SC meet....
It was Andrea of '07, I believe....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
zzzzz
.
..
The blog is putting me to sleep these days.
I'm going to take a nap, and when I wake up, if I find a suitcase with 2 million dollars in it then I'll know....oh forget it.
.
.
I see a cloud.....moving WEST!!!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5528
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15777
Classic

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15777
Quoting reedzone:


My high end prediction was 18/9/5

If my new prediction serves right, it would end the season with this..
19/9/6

I still feel that a Major Hurricane will form in the Western Caribbean, based on history of past seasons. The waters remain very warm and the heat needs to get out. I don't think a Major will make it to the USA anymore, if anything busts out of the Caribbean, winds (without shear) should drop some after going north of the Tampa line as the waters cool down.


19 Storms..are you DREAMING!! We still haven't reached "O" yet!! LMAO!!

Two more storms at best...I predict no more than 15! I actually think the season is over...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jax82:
Its a little crazy to see a subtropical storm in the tropics :)
Good point!
Perhaps we've set another record for farthest south a STS forms before Oct. 10.
.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5528
441. Jax82
Quoting NASA101:
As far as any significant US impacts THIS SEASON IS OVER!!
Also, this season will be considered as a HUGE BUST in the context of any US impacts!

All most all of the experts got it wrong - which goes to show how very little we understand about weather and in particular Tropical Weather Forecasting!

It'a absolutely shocking that we haven't had a hurricane in the Caribbean - who could have guessed that at the start of the season!

2010 season may be a subject of many doctorate theses - despite with all the right conditions, Apart from Alex no hurricane formed west of 70W and south of 20N & the GULF where ironically the hottest SSTs were this season -


I'm sure Mexico would say this season was not a bust. Texas and the central US getting drenched by Hermine or tropical storm Nicole flooding the east coast isnt big either is it? Nice try to start an argument though!
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Currently in my neck of the woods....

Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 4:00 PM EDT on October 06, 2010
81 °F / 27 °C
Showers Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 18 mph / 30 km/h / 8.2 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 30 mph / 48 km/h / 13.4 m/s
Pressure: 29.80 in / 1009 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F / 31 °C
Visibility: -
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft / 426 m
Mostly Cloudy 4000 ft / 1219 m
Mostly Cloudy 10000 ft / 3048 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft / 7 m



Nasty as all get out... only good for bundling up in bed with a cuppa and a good book.... or one's significant other....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Reed, there's a better one.... some A storm from April or May a few years back.... Ana? Alison? I forget the name, but remember the imagery.... it was in that little "gulf" there where GA and SC meet....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
We are likely looking at an initial intensity of 45mph+ at 5p.m EDT.

000
URNT12 KNHC 061947
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172010
A. 06/19:28:00Z
B. 23 deg 02 min N
068 deg 14 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 310 deg 61 nm
F. 015 deg 44 kt
G. 310 deg 68 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 23 C / 427 m
J. 24 C / 426 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0117A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NW QUAD 19:07:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 59 KT SW QUAD 19:43:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
SOME CURVED BANDS ON RADAR
SFMR INTERMITTANT BUT FL WINDS MATCH VISUAL WINDS WHERE CLOUDS PERMIT VISUAL
55 KTS SFC WNDS SEEN VISUALLY IN SW QUAD
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BahaHurican:
WAs thinking the same thing.

Three after Otto would take me to my predicted named storms. I wouldn't be surprised by as many as five more.

But we shall see what we shall see....


My high end prediction was 18/9/5

If my new prediction serves right, it would end the season with this..
19/9/6

I still feel that a Major Hurricane will form in the Western Caribbean, based on history of past seasons. The waters remain very warm and the heat needs to get out. I don't think a Major will make it to the USA anymore, if anything busts out of the Caribbean, winds (without shear) should drop some after going north of the Tampa line as the waters cool down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jax82:
Its a little crazy to see a subtropical storm in the tropics :)
Centre's not THAT far south.... trofs regularly traverse that area.... but method of formation seems pretty unusual to me....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
As far as any significant US impacts THIS SEASON IS OVER!!
Also, this season will be considered as a HUGE BUST in the context of any US impacts!

All most all of the experts got it wrong - which goes to show how very little we understand about weather and in particular Tropical Weather Forecasting!

It'a absolutely shocking that we haven't had a hurricane in the Caribbean - who could have guessed that at the start of the season!

2010 season may be a subject of many doctorate theses - despite with all the right conditions, Apart from Alex no hurricane formed west of 70W and south of 20N & the GULF where ironically the hottest SSTs were this season -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 19:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 17 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:28:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°02'N 68°14'W (23.0333N 68.2333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 349 miles (562 km) to the NNW (336°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 15° at 44kts (From the NNE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 427m (1,401ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 426m (1,398ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:07:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:43:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SOME CURVED BANDS ON RADAR
SFMR INTERMITTANT BUT FL WINDS MATCH VISUAL WINDS WHERE CLOUDS PERMIT VISUAL
55 KTS SFC WNDS SEEN VISUALLY IN SW QUAD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
432. Jax82
Its a little crazy to see a subtropical storm in the tropics :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Classic sub-tropical storm.


This one remains my fav. Subtropical Storm.
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Quoting Skyepony:


That slow moving low causing an outbreak like that is very unusual for this time of the year there.
WAs thinking the same thing.

Quoting reedzone:


Honestly, I think we have 2 more storms for the Caribbean, and 1 or 2 out in the open Atlantic.
Three after Otto would take me to my predicted named storms. I wouldn't be surprised by as many as five more.

But we shall see what we shall see....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Howdy all! PERFECT weather in the FL panhandle for golf and boating...
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http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010

gfs long range model shows some big around oct 22
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XTRP shows a South Carolina landfall.
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426. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Titoxd:


And another two just got spotted on the ground, one near Sedona, and the other one east of Flagstaff. It's been an interesting few days here in the desert...


That slow moving low causing an outbreak like that is very unusual for this time of the year there.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I wouldn't be surprised by it, though I'm not as gung ho about a regular TS as I might have been a few weeks ago. STS, now....


Honestly, I think we have 2 more storms for the Caribbean, and 1 or 2 out in the open Atlantic.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm.... also noting an invest in the SIndian already.... at 4.7S,81.9E. Isn't it a wee bit early for them?



And Navy has Otto posted already...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time,
Do you think we will have after Otto/17
(A) 1 Storm
(B) 0 Storms
(C) 2 Storms
(D) 3 or more Storms
for during the remainder of the season...


My educated answer is C... forming in the GOM before 11/1
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Classic sub-tropical storm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Quoting reedzone:


No, but this is La Nina and we will most likely see more activity, perhaps one storm out of season.
I wouldn't be surprised by it, though I'm not as gung ho about a regular TS as I might have been a few weeks ago. STS, now....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I haven't paid much attention to the models developing another system in the Caribbean. Its certianly possible, but very long range out.
Yeah, I just noticed it yesterday evening. The development appears to come from a piece of energy that got cut off from Otto and then developed in the Caribbean. Seems plausible; though a good 5+ days out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting robert88:
This isn't 2005 folks.
Thank goodness. We already tracked everything for 2005....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
I haven't paid much attention to the models developing another system in the Caribbean. Its certianly possible, but very long range out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Thanks 09!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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