Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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515. BahaHurican
8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
NHC issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm OTTO
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21479
514. Stormchaser2007
8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Would really help if people wouldn't quote NASA101. Just a troll craving attention.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
513. MiamiHurricanes09
8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Initial intensity for Otto is 60mph. Now expected to become a hurricane.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
512. BahaHurican
8:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Quoting NASA101:


Agreed! And even if Otto formed officially in the next few hours my argument earlier was implying that this is season is BUST with respect to any significant US impacts!

We are are getting desperate when we are getting excited about storm such as Otto with naked swirl...
Actually, no. This MIGHT be true if we'd all come here believing that the US was going to be the storm magnet of the century and that hundreds, no thousands, no, TENS of thousands of innocent American lives would have been lost to Demon Hurricane. However..... most of us, especially the ones getting "excited" about OTTO [the palindrome] really just came here to see how things would turn out.... and we're easily excited about anything tropical, partially tropical, or potentially tropical.

So u are actually wrong in that.

One more thing. There are huge numbers of bloggers and lurkers on here who couldn't give a flying fig if the US did or did not get hit; they're, like u, looking out for #1, over there in Mexico or Belize or Jamaica or PR or USVI or Antigua or Barbados or.....

Oh, wait. It's only you with the Americo-centric attitude.... the rest of us understand that the blog is not about whether or not the CONUS gets hit....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21479
510. WeatherNerdPR
8:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Good Afternoon. Seems to be an argument about 17L's status, and according to the Navy site and the Recent Vortex Message, we have a moderate SS right now.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
509. Stormchaser2007
8:33 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
2010

If this is a bust I'd hate to a see an active season.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
506. StormChaser81
8:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
navy says its official so it will be official shortly dont no whats stormchaser81's point


CIMSS tropical cyclone webpage has it as a tropical storm Otto. That's why it's best to wait for NHC to update there page.
Link
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
505. Floodman
8:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Late in responding but to answer your question...GREAT. Busy as heck but great...web maintenance and design are time consuming, especially when you don't do it for a living...


Tell me about it...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
503. MiamiHurricanes09
8:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
VERY impressive new vortex message that just came in from Otto.

990 mb, 65 mph winds. Don't be shocked if they hold the advisory.
I agree. I would of never thought that 65mph winds would be lurking within 17L. It may very well become a hurricane at this pace.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Imagine you were in a bank... and an armed robbery took place. Would you not believe it had happened til FOX News told you so?


That's not a fair comparison.

Let's think of this a person catches a fish and says its a red snapper, until an expert says its a red snapper it could be a gray snapper.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Expect a 65mph Otto at 5p.m EDT.

000
URNT12 KNHC 062015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172010
A. 06/20:10:30Z
B. 23 deg 00 min N
068 deg 16 min W
C. NA
D. 55 kt
E. 226 deg 48 nm
F. 280 deg 62 kt
G. 224 deg 38 nm
H. EXTRAP 990 mb
I. 22 C / 486 m
J. 24 C / 425 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0117A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SW QUAD 19:59:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
VERY impressive new vortex message that just came in from Otto.

990 mb, 65 mph winds. Don't be shocked if they hold the advisory.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Just ignore him, he wont listen to reason.

2007 was obviously a 'bust' too.
lol....Yeah, Iknow, with only 2 cat-5 landfalls....how boring....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20493
New

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 20:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 17 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 20:10:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°00'N 68°16'W (23.N 68.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 212 miles (342 km) to the ENE (60°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 280° at 62kts (From the W at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 486m (1,594ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 425m (1,394ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:59:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 fee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Atlantic has it listed as SubTropical Otto.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Where the heck do you think the ATCF gets their info? FROM the NHC, that is stuff fed into the models. Its on the Navy Hurricane site too.. that's an official source too.
Ted.... some pple just don't get it.... lol the NHC WEBSITE doesn't have it posted yet.... so technically it's not OTTO yet....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21479
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

read post 475,477


Just ignore him, he wont listen to reason.

2007 was obviously a 'bust' too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting StormChaser81:


NHC has not designated Otto yet, so he is correct.


Imagine you were in a bank... and an armed robbery took place. Would you not believe it had happened til FOX News told you so?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The official website is the NHC. Although the system is not Otto currently, it will be within the next hour.
I said it wrong. You can get official information about the NHC from this site!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dunno how more official you can get.
It's not a tropical storm until the NHC goes ahead and issues an advisory on it as a tropical storm. The NHC currently has not initiated Otto, although they will in the 5p.m EDT advisory. I really don't understand what people are arguing about.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BahaHurican:
SC81, Navy (NRL) has 17L as Otto. Now I've never seen them go to a name with a storm when NHC hasn't done the same at the next advisory. NHC has called it; they just haven't posted the advisory - yet. And it's 4:22 our time, meaning it won't be long.


Agree
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Dunno how more official you can get.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting StormChaser81:


Still not on the NHC page, until they put out there advisories and update the page, no Otto.

Plain and simple.

You can argue all you want.
LOL, Theres nothing to argue about.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
How about that palindromic OTTO being a palindromic STS. What a meteorological hoot, huh.
Don't laugh though. That's verboten.
.
.
.
I see a cloud....moving WEST!!!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5525
Quoting BahaHurican:
Reed, there's a better one.... some A storm from April or May a few years back.... Ana? Alison? I forget the name, but remember the imagery.... it was in that little "gulf" there where GA and SC meet....


There was Andrea in May in 2007
There was Ana in in April in 2003
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormChaser81:


No Otto, It's not official yet.




Where the heck do you think the ATCF gets their info? FROM the NHC, that is stuff fed into the models. Its on the Navy Hurricane site too.. that's an official source too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting StormChaser81:


Where not, go to the NHC page and no Otto.

You are clueless
SC81, Navy (NRL) has 17L as Otto. Now I've never seen them go to a name with a storm when NHC hasn't done the same at the next advisory. NHC has called it; they just haven't posted the advisory - yet. And it's 4:22 our time, meaning it won't be long.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21479
I hate how every year there isn't a major US impact somehow it is the highlight of the season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The official website is the NHC. Although the system is not Otto currently, it will be within the next hour.


Exactly
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 991, SS, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 70, 90, 1008, 240, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OTTO, M,


No Otto, It's not official yet.


Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Impressive

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting scott39:
Tropical Atlantic which is the official site for the NHC has.
The official website is the NHC. Although the system is not Otto currently, it will be within the next hour.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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