Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

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Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.

Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.

Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thunderstorms are beginning to wrap around the center, likely acquiring tropical characteristics.
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Quoting TropicalMan2010:

yes its true truly amazing
you are obviously too young to have served in Vietnam it can and does rain in buckets literally
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ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
500 PM AST WED OCT 06 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHEN INTO
SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO. CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75
PERCENT AROUND THE BROAD INNER CORE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM 1500-FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 63 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS
VALUE IS CLOSE TO THE 48 KT CREDIBLE SFMR WINDS OBSERVED IN THE
SAME AREA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. VISIBLE AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL
COLD LOW...LOCATED PREVIOUSLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...HAS MOVED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW SITUATED
ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OTTO
IS STILL A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THAT IT IS ALSO GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OTTO IS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHERE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND GRADUALLY NUDGE OTTO ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BY 36 HOURS. BETWEEN 72
AND 96 HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY POSE A
THREAT TO THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...AND THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF
THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR OTTO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY 96 HOURS...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS AND THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.2N 68.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 23.8N 68.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 67.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 25.5N 66.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 63.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 30.3N 55.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 34.5N 44.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 31.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting NEwxguy:


Hi ya Flood,how are you my friend.What the H*** is going on with this blog lately.This morning was one nut job and again this afternoon.I want find the guy who turned over the rock,please put the rock back,please!!!!


Not much we can do about it...I lurk a lot these days as I don't trust myself not to mix it up...remember when there was discussion in here?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wouldn't it be a good thing that we were fortunate enough to not have any significant storms make landfall this year?

Not sure why the kiddies on the blog have to rage just because they didn't see a hurricane cause damage in the CONUS this season.
Some really want that CNN moment, or even a shot of Cantore in goggles. I'll raise my hand and say it's a good thing. Who else raises their hand. If you don't raise your hand.......no problem.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5610
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your nuts, that was amazing to see. Your pretty much stating its only not boring when they're hitting land. Igor, Danielle, Julia were absolutely stunning.. I didn't have to worry about a major landmass being struck significantly from those beasts.

I don't include Earl for obvious reasons.. the Leeward Islands got hit pretty bad.
I was just thinking that for a season where the vast majority of landfalls were below major strength, there sure was a heck of a lot of damage. Mind u, I think we've gotten off easy so far... wouldn't want to have had all this, plus damage from a couple Igors-at-full-strength as well....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting Floodman:


Way ahead of you...LOL



Hi ya Flood,how are you my friend.What the H*** is going on with this blog lately.This morning was one nut job and again this afternoon.I want find the guy who turned over the rock,please put the rock back,please!!!!
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554. bwi
Good afternoon, just checking in for the first time today, so apologies for not reading too far back in the comments yet.

Checking a couple models, it now looks like 12z ECMWF spins up a storm in the western caribbean next week, but GFS 12z has backed off quite a bit, with lots of disturbed weather but no storm pulling together.
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I was reading that from Oct 16th thru Oct 22cnd that a TC could form in the Western Caribbean and be pulled N.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6861
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your nuts, that was amazing to see. Your pretty much stating its only not boring when they're hitting land. Igor, Danielle, Julia were absolutely stunning.. I didn't have to worry about a major landmass being struck significantly from those beasts.

I don't include Earl for obvious reasons.. the Leeward Islands got hit pretty bad.

You should discount Igor, that monster was amazing but it whacked Newfoundland pretty hard.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wouldn't it be a good thing that we were fortunate enough to not have any significant storms make landfall this year?

Not sure why the kiddies on the blog have to rage just because they didn't see a hurricane cause damage in the CONUS this season.


I have no idea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
After I get home from work I'll post some images of Otto using GREarth.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
The blog entry says 51" of rain fell in Vietnam. since Friday. Is that correct? Guess I did't realize you could get that much rain in a 5 day period. Wow.
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Quoting robert88:
No significant impacts to the US turned out to be a major bust by all the well respected forecasters. I don't want to see any death and destruction...but watching the majority of all hurricanes spinning around the open Atlantic is quite boring imo. The most interesting storms are the ones that ignore the models with track and intensity. That didn't happen this season with the exception of Earl getting close to NC for a landfall.


Your nuts, that was amazing to see. Your pretty much stating its only not boring when they're hitting land. Igor, Danielle, Julia were absolutely stunning.. I didn't have to worry about a major landmass being struck significantly from those beasts.

I don't include Earl for obvious reasons.. the Leeward Islands got hit pretty bad.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179


And there you have it!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I hope you are not a rocket scientist......


I doubt many of us are harboring that illusion. :-)

Apropos of almost nothing (and, yes, this is a repost from last night, so ignore it if you've already read it):

Otto is one of only two palindromic names on the NHC's 126-name, six-year Atlantic list. The only other currently active palindromic name is Ana (and Bob was retired after 1991)*. There are no palindromes on either the 144-name Eastern Pacific or the 125-name Western Pacific lists, though the relatively scant 48-name Central Pacific list has three palindromes: Aka, Ana, and Oho.

* - The name Hanna--which is still on the active list--is originally and more commonly spelled with a final 'H', though the NHC obviously doesn't use that version, depriving us of yet another palindrome. Further confusing matters, the name Ana is derived from Hannah, meaning the NHC has two active names meaning the exact same thing. (Not that that's the only such oddity on the NHC list. For instance, Karina--a name on the 2014 list--is merely an alternate form of Katrina.)

And now you know...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wouldn't it be a good thing that we were fortunate enough to not have any significant storms make landfall this year?
Most of us would say yes, that's a good thing....most of us....not all of us.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5610
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Would really help if people wouldn't quote NASA101. Just a troll craving attention.

Sorry Chaser.... couldn't resist.... lol... I had an excess sarcasm buildup and he came along just in time for me to shoot a few fish in a barrel..... lol

But now we discussions to read and so on.... and I've vented.... so now I can be very, very good.....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting scott39:
Its time to update your ignore list again!!


Way ahead of you...LOL

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
2010

If this is a bust I'd hate to a see an active season.

That monetary damage number will increase...And I believe this season has a surprise or two left. Especially if the MJO returns by late October into November...jmo That wave at 40 west has spin to it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Wouldn't it be a good thing that we were fortunate enough to not have any significant storms make landfall this year?

Not sure why the kiddies on the blog have to rage just because they didn't see a hurricane cause damage in the CONUS this season.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting NASA101:


THAT'S WHY i SAID BUST WITH RESP3ECT TO US LANDFALLS - I LIVE IN US SO YEAH YES I AM USA CENTRIC!
WHAT PART OF THAT DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND!


You probably live in an area that is not at risk for hurricanes if no landfalls is a bust.
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Quoting Jax82:
How many landfalls did Bastardi predict this year? And how many have we had?


JB predicted 2 major landfalls in the US LMOA!! We did have mightly Bonnie and a few close calls...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Would really help if people wouldn't quote NASA101. Just a troll craving attention.



Already flagged and sent his messages to the admins.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
Quoting oracle28:
XTRP shows a South Carolina landfall.


XTRP isn't a model. It takes nothing into account. It is just a line drawn in the direction the storm is currently moving.

In short - It's meaningless.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the NHC expects 2010 to crank out another hurricane.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.8N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.


If you read the blog earlier, that's wishcasting and crazy! 2010 is done :P
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Its time to update your ignore list again!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6861
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
official now happy now stormchaser81 geez its been offical already


=)
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
529. Jax82
How many landfalls did Bastardi predict this year? And how many have we had?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No significant impacts to the US turned out to be a major bust by all the well respected forecasters. I don't want to see any death and destruction...but watching the majority of all hurricanes spinning around the open Atlantic is quite boring imo. The most interesting storms are the ones that ignore the models with track and intensity. That didn't happen this season with the exception of Earl getting close to NC for a landfall.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting StormChaser81:


Where not, go to the NHC page and no Otto.

You are clueless


Just got off the NHC site. They have Otto showing on their site.
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If Otto becomes a Hurricane, that would be 8 Hurricanes, only one away from my 9-10 prediction.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Looks like the NHC expects 2010 to crank out another hurricane.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.8N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 68.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Wow, another puffed up little poppinjay goes poof...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
2010

If this is a bust I'd hate to a see an active season.


This season is very deadly.
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NHC issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm OTTO
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.