97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Eastern NC recovery in progress

Windsor residents clean up after flooding
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368. JLPR2
97L has finally established a decent surface reflection and it is to the east of where they place it currently.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8526
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey there!

About that Hammond ob...

I have noticed that it reads higher than Slidell, BR, McComb, and MSY during the day, and does so much worse when it is hotter. Not sure if 79 F really happened today, or not. You might try to see if any PWS records support it...

Actually asked Ken Graham (NWS Slidell WFO MIC) about it. He said they know it has a warm daytime bias, but the airport isn't interested in spending the money. (I didn't ask, "So why are you guys still using it as an official ob site?!?", but wanted to...)
;-)


And to think, I was glad it was just 79 lol!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Fill me in on whats going on with the system in the Caribbean, been at work all day and would like some ideas.
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Quoting largeeyes:


How in the world does something from in the W Carib and "go out to sea"?


remember hurricane michelle? 2001 it did
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2151
Quoting NRAamy:
Hi Tampa...Orca....

I can't work tonite on the Night Shift.... I'm gonna leave the main blog alone for awhile....


What the hell we gonna do.....:)
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Hi Tampa...Orca....

I can't work tonite on the Night Shift.... I'm gonna leave the main blog alone for awhile....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


This coming from the person who called Nicole a fish storm.

Was Karl a fish too?
No. Charley was,,,,j,k....really...j.k..You may not even be old enough to catch that one..No pun intended..:)
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Hello everyone! this is my first post of the season ( sort of late for the party/fete!) While everyone from the N.Leewards,Virgin Islands and P.R. keep wondering "where's the beef", seems like 97L broke off from a mushrooming trough,Low and active moving convection from Venezuela etc. in the Eastern Caribbean and slip-slidded under those islands- who are beginning to get not so much moisture from 97l but from this monstrous system that sluglike is now moving NW. Meanwhile more convectionis in the making for us- and further concern is the Low at 45 around 13 to add to the fun. I find the CONUS posts amusing re lack of anything to report except falling tempertures, since we have been deluged by flash floods, extreme thunderstorms and periods of very heavy rains since Friday, anything but boring. The prognosis for much of October is the same. It is beginning to cause serious problems- for example today virtually everything was closed, but many businesses said they would open after 12pm as that is when the flash flood warning was supposed to end.

It seems that the prognosis for the Atlantic, that we are in for late season storms is accurate. Activity will not only be in the western Caribbean, but also generated by activity in the Atlantic. So don't get bored yet! We here continue to look to the east.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
I have the Models up and running on my Blog if anyone would like to view.
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Looks like nearly every Major Model has a disturbance Organizing in the SW Caribbean now......That is a change and will have some heads turning!
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
is the low just south of St Croix?Link


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 PM AST MON OCT 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST...WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY...BEFORE FILLING. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE
TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...TO PRODUCE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
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is the low just south of St Croix?Link
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And the rest of it:

... AN OUTDOOR BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE CONTINUING DROUGHT THIS WILL CREATE THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
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Oh, and Good evening, everyone.
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Quoting mrpuertorico:

Susan Soltero we are my friend i told my girl it was going to rain all night and all day too
Hi from Juncos, yesterday was a nasty rainy day over the central east..is the low just south of St Croix?Link
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Came home to a surprise severe weather warning. I knew we needed rain desperately, but this I don't like.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Lake Charles, LA
11:22 am CDT, Mon., Oct. 4, 2010

... FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... ... RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE REGION REMAINS GRIPPED IN A DROUGHT AND WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE I- 10 CORRIDOR CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FIRES TO GROW RAPIDLY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TEMPERATURE BEGIN TO FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF THE DROUGHT AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE CREATED EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The Gfs shows another storm forming in the western caribbean and going out to sea.







personally, i wouldn't let my guard down u.s. coast people because all is quiet now but that could change in the matter of a couple of days.


How in the world does something from in the W Carib and "go out to sea"?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The GFS is picking up on something big near the SE coast...3120 hours out.
Well, that doesn't quite take us to the Ides of March, but as near as makes no difference.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The Gfs shows another storm forming in the western caribbean and going out to sea.







personally, i wouldn't let my guard down u.s. coast people because all is quiet now but that could change in the matter of a couple of days.


i agree with you we all thaught in 2005 after Rita we would be done and less than a month later a small tropical depression forms in the carribian and 6hrs later it became ts Wilma and remember at one point they said it may become a cat 1 at most...boy were they ever wrong! it EXPLODED into a cat 5 in 4 hrs and hit cuba as a cat 4 and was still suppost to only be a cat 1-2 when it hit Florida but wrong again it hit as a strong cat 3 with winds of 125 mph only 5 mph from a cat 4!!! so we have to wait and see
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2151
Quoting sunlinepr:


Fijate, ahora que lo mencionas, me doy cuenta que si, la pego..... creo que es la 1era vez....
aloha!! wow espanol!! lol
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i don't think 97L will develop the next week and the GFS has been picking up on a big system over 1000 hours out but i wouldn't freak out just yet lets just wait and see could it pull a Wilma? certainly right now its showing a Michelle(2001) track right now but the 18Z has it closer to south Florida than the 6Z did
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2151
85.2°F
Clear
Humidity: 25%
Dew Point: 45°F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 82°F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 7.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 110 ft
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The Gfs shows another storm forming in the western caribbean and going out to sea.







personally, i wouldn't let my guard down u.s. coast people because all is quiet now but that could change in the matter of a couple of days.
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


Isla Verde is also hot & dry, no rain or wind yet.
aqui me estoy asando Palmas del mar es un sauna y no cae una gota que eslo que esta pasando algo tiene que formarse
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Besides Opal's 15th anniversary (well, of landfall on CONUS), today is the 141st anniversary of the Saxby Gale.

"On the night of October 4th and 5th, 1869, exactly [edit: 141] years ago today, occurred the Saxby Gale, to leave a legend that still provokes our wonder. It swept up the Bay of Fundy smashing wharves, tossing vessels ashore, and creating tides that may have set an all-time world record. An account of it appeared in the AMHERST GAZETTE, three days later, which said that: "the tide must have been eight feet above the ordinary high-water level and four feet above the dykes."

Oddly enough, it hardly affected Nova Scotia's Atlantic coast - the South shore and the Eastern shore, but confined itself to communities along New Brunswick's Fundy coast - and the inner reaches of Minas Basin and Chignecto Bay.

No one really knows how many lives were lost in that gale. In the churchyard at Hillsborough, in Albert County (N.B.) is a whole section of tombstones raised to the victims of the Saxby "tide", as some called it, because it was the phenomenal tide that accounted for most of the casualties. Farmers had gone down to the marshes, in an attempt to lead their livestock to safety, and then the dykes broke, and they were swept away by a great tidal wave. "

Wow.

http://www.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~nbcharlo/saxby1.htm
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting luigi18:
QUE SUSAN LA PEGO OH MY GOT!!!


Fijate, ahora que lo mencionas, me doy cuenta que si, la pego..... creo que es la 1era vez....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
Quoting doorman79:
Afternoon Everyone!

Hammond Municipal Airport
Lat: 30.52 Lon: -90.42 Elev: 43
Last Update on Oct 4, 4:01 pm CDT

Fair

79 °F
(26 °C)
Hey there!

About that Hammond ob...

I have noticed that it reads higher than Slidell, BR, McComb, and MSY during the day, and does so much worse when it is hotter. Not sure if 79 F really happened today, or not. You might try to see if any PWS records support it...

Actually asked Ken Graham (NWS Slidell WFO MIC) about it. He said they know it has a warm daytime bias, but the airport isn't interested in spending the money. (I didn't ask, "So why are you guys still using it as an official ob site?!?", but wanted to...)
;-)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting sunlinepr:

Sure, but the real thing is that last night it was there in the same spot.... well maybe this time it will reach PR... Hey, Susan.... what's your opinion???
QUE SUSAN LA PEGO OH MY GOT!!!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


But it was worth the wait...

True
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hurricane season may not be over, but its pretty much over as far as the threat goes for the southeast U.S.

the first cold front has come through, next several nights in the 40's and 50's here in FL, days near, 80, its over, fall is here, and water temps will continue to cool.
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Tropical Update From Texas!
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This is Wikipedia's info. about Hur. Igor



Following the pattern of a classic Cape Verde-type storm, a large and strong area of low pressure associated with broad tropical disturbance wave emerged off Western Africa on September 6. It quickly organized and became a tropical depression during the very early morning hours of September 8 and soon became the ninth tropical storm of the season, Tropical Storm Igor. It formed farther to the east than the previous tropical cyclones in 2010, being named while southeast of the Cape Verde islands.

Interaction with another vigorous tropical low and eastern wind shear weakened the storm on September 9. The interaction and weak steering currents brought the storm almost to a halt, meandering around the Cape Verde islands before weakening to a tropical depression as it absorbed the secondary low. The storm regained tropical storm status on September 10, and began to organize again. It rapidly deepened and briefly developed an eye-like feature early on September 11, which persisted for two hours. As Igor absorbed dry air, a process called entrainment, convection decreased, and much of the convection was displaced south of Igor. The storm strengthened into a hurricane, though, late on September 11.

After some slight strengthening, the storm rapidly strengthened early on September 12, and became a Category 4 hurricane that afternoon. Further intensification continued although at a somewhat slower rate in the evening before leveling out in intensity the next morning as a strong Category 4 storm. As Igor entered an eyewall replacement cycle, its winds decreased a little, but still maintained Category 4 status. However, almost a day later, the eye became better defined, and Igor continued its strengthening streak again, nearly reaching Category 5 intensity early on September 15. However, several hours later, Igor entered another larger eyewall replacement cycle, this time much more obvious, and weakened down to a lower-end Category 4 hurricane. On September 16, Igor reached a diameter of 506 miles (814 kilometers). Since then, the storm has fluctuated between a moderate to strong Category 2 Hurricane as it heads towards Bermuda. On September 19, the weakened storm battered Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. On September 20, the storm grew further to a size of 661 miles (1064 Kilometers). Prior to fully becoming extratropical the storm grew further to 863 miles (1389 Kilometers). During the day on September 21, eastern regions of Newfoundland experienced tropical storm and hurricane force winds. Damage due to extensive flooding, fallen trees, power outages, and at least one missing person (suspected drowning - confirmed 4 days later with recovery of the body of an 80-year-old resident[41]), were reported.[42] Igor became extratropical east of Newfoundland on September 21. Hurricane Igor's extratropical remnants were completely absorbed by a larger extratropical storm in Baffin Bay on September 26.

Warnings of storm tides up to 14 feet were issued by the Haitian Red Cross on September 17, for parts of Northern Haiti as Igor passed to the north.[43]
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
2010 Hur season up to now...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
I guess this would be a good time to update my blog. Be back in 5
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Quoting sunlinepr:


That dry air is going to move moisture to PR, but also is going to help ventilate moisture north...

Good Point
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Thanks cyberteddy
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Looks like some of the dry air from ull is getting into it. it should back off in a bit.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif


That dry air is going to move moisture to PR, but also is going to help ventilate moisture north...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
WOW, this is the slowest ive ever seen the blog!!!!!!!
probably slower than my 2001 computer....
(it took 20 minutes to load a page on the internet)
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all is quiet!
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Quoting sunlinepr:

Last night I told my wife and daughter, tomorrow it's going to be pouring rain all day..... They woke up laughing at my predictions.... They believe now a local met. called Susan than me....

Susan Soltero we are my friend i told my girl it was going to rain all night and all day too
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sorry new to this...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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