97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Orca's
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
guess you need to fill this out! lol


Well, at least I don't change my season forecast up or down to match the trend line like the " professionals " do every month.
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Inviting some friends to take an Atlantic dive....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
468. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:
what you mean by that are we going to have wind or rain are we going to have something at least? necesitamos algo por favor need vacations!


I'm not sure about the vacations but buckets of rain, yeah...
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Quoting kmanislander:


You might be surprised to hear that we had rain this morning !. Not much, but enough to wet the roads.

Frankly, I am tired of the rain now but we are moving into the "rainy season peak " which is Oct and Nov when the stalled out fronts bring deluges to the NW Caribbean.

As far as the season goes, my numbers were 14 / 7/ 4 or 5 so I guess I am finished LOL

I was under the impression that you had got a pretty low rainfall so far.
Lower than normal I mean.

We seem to be coming into Petit Careme here. 2 weeks or so, of clear weather, before November deluges us again...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
466. 7544
and yet another new blob behind 97l maybe it might gt tagged 98l ?
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Quoting kmanislander:


You might be surprised to hear that we had rain this morning !. Not much, but enough to wet the roads.

Frankly, I am tired of the rain now but we are moving into the "rainy season peak " which is Oct and Nov when the stalled out fronts bring deluges to the NW Caribbean.

As far as the season goes, my numbers were 14 / 7/ 4 or 5 so I guess I am finished LOL
Orca's
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
guess you need to fill this out! lol
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464. JLPR2
All it needs is develop some convection in the west side, 97L is doing better tonight, now it depends on what D-max does to it, lets watch, shall we? XD

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting JLPR2:


Se ve casi inevitable, todo depende de cuan rápido se mueva.
what you mean by that are we going to have wind or rain are we going to have something at least? necesitamos algo por favor need vacations!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Hey, rain, It's just a matter of jumping that fence around PR

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
460. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:
oye pana dime ahora va a llover manana o no ?


Se ve casi inevitable, todo depende de cuan rápido se mueva.
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Quoting pottery:

Could be that, yes.
You enjoying the dry air there, Kman?
I dont think you can be happy with the rainy season so far?


You might be surprised to hear that we had rain this morning !. Not much, but enough to wet the roads.

Frankly, I am tired of the rain now but we are moving into the "rainy season peak " which is Oct and Nov when the stalled out fronts bring deluges to the NW Caribbean.

As far as the season goes, my numbers were 14 / 7/ 4 or 5 so I guess I am finished LOL
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Here at 18N 63W the weather has been rainy all day today, with 3+ inches of rain since 6PM yesterday. Finally we've got something from 97L, and it looks like there is more to come. Intersting enough, the winds are picking up from the W to WSW tonight.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Not really. Take a look at the loop South of the DR. The pressure near that area has been consistently lower all day than the area designated by the NHC as 97L.

It would appear that two different areas are being tracked by two different agencies.

Could be that, yes.
You enjoying the dry air there, Kman?
I dont think you can be happy with the rainy season so far?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting JLPR2:


No, it's the NHC, they changed their numbers

AL, 97, 2010100500, , BEST, 0, 175N, 645W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
oye pana dime ahora va a llover manana o no ?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
454. JLPR2
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It's probably a malfunction due to it not being able to read where the circulation is.


No, it's the NHC, they changed their numbers

AL, 97, 2010100500, , BEST, 0, 175N, 645W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Post 449.
There is a lot of available moisture around the region.
Other conditions are pretty good.
What's up with the slow period?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting JRRP:
???
18 GMT 10/4/10 17.7N 65.8W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.6N 65.1W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.5N 64.5W 25 1007 Invest

It's probably a malfunction due to it not being able to read where the circulation is.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting atmoaggie:
That's a weird one...


Not really. Take a look at the loop South of the DR. The pressure near that area has been consistently lower all day than the area designated by the NHC as 97L.

It would appear that two different areas are being tracked by two different agencies.
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Quoting pottery:

HEH!!
1919 takes that hair on yur chest, and lays it down into a 'relaxed' version LOL.
Smoothe stuff....


Must be like the moonshine my old man used to make with a radiator and some corn lol :)
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
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Quoting doorman79:


1919 huh? Old milwaukee's best here! Put hair on yur chest lol

HEH!!
1919 takes that hair on yur chest, and lays it down into a 'relaxed' version LOL.
Smoothe stuff....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting pottery:

Hi Vet, Doorman,
Doing good here, under clear skies and gentle breezes.
Sorry I took so long to get back, I was over at Orca's.

Oh, and Cheers........


1919 huh? Old milwaukee's best here! Put hair on yur chest lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting JRRP:
???
18 GMT 10/4/10 17.7N 65.8W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.6N 65.1W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.5N 64.5W 25 1007 Invest
That's a weird one...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
SHIPS brings 97 to a Hurricane in 72 hrs???
Does the shear to the NW diminish by then, or what?

edited NW for NE
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

It's really easy, when you get the hang of it...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
441. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:
???
18 GMT 10/4/10 17.7N 65.8W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.6N 65.1W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.5N 64.5W 25 1007 Invest


yeah, that's were I see it, just east of St. Croix
*A center relocation
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440. JRRP
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439. JRRP
???
18 GMT 10/4/10 17.7N 65.8W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.6N 65.1W 25 1007 Invest
00 GMT 10/5/10 17.5N 64.5W 25 1007 Invest
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437. JLPR2
Another plus is that 97L is in range for the rapid updates of NASA :D

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Nicely put. Evening Pottery, How's it going, in your neck of the woods?
Quoting doorman79:


what up pott! I am bored enough to drink another!

Cheerssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hi Vet, Doorman,
Doing good here, under clear skies and gentle breezes.
Sorry I took so long to get back, I was over at Orca's.

Oh, and Cheers........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I appreciate the kind words....I will be in and out since my Wife is taking a class tonight and I got left in command....that huge high pressure that has been parked out here has finally started shifting east so your weather should start heating back up soon.


That is not something I will welcome. Dang it, I was just getting used to the nice weather here. Last year, we had temps in the mid-90's around Thanksgiving. You sure know how to ruin a party.
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434. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

While the NHC are busy watching PR it would appear that another low is spinning up to the
South of the DR

Not entirely convinced the NHC have this system pegged.


Yeah, that one seems to be the area that was ahead of 97L, the NHC marked it as one area of disturbed weather but it seems they were always two.
That one appeared in the ASCAT pass the last several days as a very broad and open circulation, probably tightening up a little there.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


A good evening, my friend. Nice to have a bit of fun. I miss the mountains every time I see a skiing vid. Glad you're back on.
I appreciate the kind words....I will be in and out since my Wife is taking a class tonight and I got left in command....that huge high pressure that has been parked out here has finally started shifting east so your weather should start heating back up soon.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey I grew up in central FL so Dophins have been my teams since the Csonka, Morris, Greise era. :)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
...Hmmm.. i before e except after....How does that go? Is it true for proper names? lol


A good evening, my friend. Nice to have a bit of fun. I miss the mountains every time I see a skiing vid. Glad you're back on.
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NRAamy - You'll just have to keep the fork for now... I can see you will need it.

Nice rotation on that PR radar. I will probably be wrong, but I think a higher % of development is a possibility on the morning update...
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Good evening

While the NHC are busy watching PR it would appear that another low is spinning up to the
South of the DR

Not entirely convinced the NHC have this system pegged.
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427. JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:
I consider the circulation to be here with that curved band of convection, but the west side is well... Nothing, empty, unless I'm wrong and that isn't the real circulation.



Looks like I was wrong, it seems to be to the east of that, probably out of range since St. Croix which is the island to the north of the band is reporting winds out of the north and St. Kitts is reporting winds from the south, it's in between those two.
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Thanks DDR, CAT5 and friend Pottery- actually have been around for a couple of years just not this season. and, yes, take your point re October and November, and for us in Barbados the Week of October 6th is a major peak for storms and as I was not so eloquently trying to point out (and now see the NHC seems to concur) this system we are stuck in has potential, but also the one right behind where the two lows around 45 are beginning to merge in an unholy union- haven't seen projections on that- been so busy- anyone know what is being projected?
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421. JLPR2
I consider the circulation to be here with that curved band of convection, but the west side is well... Nothing, empty, unless I'm wrong and that isn't the real circulation.

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ATCF says 97L is still at 25 knots and 1007mb:

AL, 97, 2010100500, , BEST, 0, 176N, 651W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 240, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.