97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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The Caribbean has been a pressure cooker all season. If you get out unscathed this year, then you will be extremely lucky.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sure Cape Verde season is over, but African waves keep on feeding ITCZ.... excuse me, but after 3 days waiting for 97L, and looking at the same area, I was trying to look somewhere else.....
Quoting kmanislander:


CV season is over
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
517. JLPR2
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting pottery:

depends....


Ahhh would require depends?
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Quoting Grothar:
Is this an OOHH or an AHHHH?


depends....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.
That was mine, too.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Kman,
We are definitely feeling the first hints of fall here in Florida. But because the SSTs are so high we may still see a few more before it's all said and done.


Hi there,

This season has proven that it takes more than high SST and TCHP to get systems going. Dry air and shear has ruled the day mostly. When you look across the SE CONUS and the GOM the dry air is very much in control now. Could be a sign that the season is close to over, subject to what the fronts do in the coming weeks. The SW Caribbean remains a hot spot.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
I just got a new Crackberry... so I have been a bit busy. I found a new ring tone for it... SWMBO is having a small problem with it ;)

Ring Tone
Mine: Link
(she just adores this...)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.

I was one of the 'bandies' LOL.
What, (in spite of the many favourable conditions) do you think caused the lower than forecast numbers?
And the lack of CONUS hits?

I dont mean "dry air" or "shear"..

What were the conditions that were NOT taken into consideration, that resulted in the lower numbers?

Any ideas?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting flsky:

Isn't is great! Haven't had the AC on for 3 days now!


Hey Sky! Glad to hear it. I wish we could've turned off the AC for that long. Still a little too humid. Our time is coming though. Been really nice outside.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.


Possibly...but I'm still holding on to the 20 I've "bandied about" since April (with a minimum 17 and as many as 22).
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505. JLPR2
Quoting cat5hurricane:

How is that so? I was always under the impression that it occurs throughout the night...


Yes that is true, but the maximum effect of D-max is just before sunrise.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.

Hi Kman,
We are definitely feeling the first hints of fall here in Florida. But because the SSTs are so high we may still see a few more before it's all said and done.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

How is that so? I was always under the impression that it occurs throughout the night...


Dmin is just before sunset and Dmax is just before dawn, in both instances wherever the system may be.
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Nothing special with those waves out from Africa, maybe the normal rotation, as always.....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
From the looks of it, 97L will be Otto by tomorrow at 11 pm or Thursday Morning.
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Yea with 30-40knots of shear.But wow look at the PR long range radar i see a circulation closing getting more tight.60% at the 2!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Sheesh... looks like this is gonna be needed.. whos first?

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Did Pottery finally come out and actually call an early demise to the season.. he was going to.

No, he has not done so as yet.
We are all waiting for him to do that....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Is this an OOHH or an AHHHH?

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495. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:


Dmax will not occur until 4 or 5 am tomorrow.


exactly, and I doubt I will be up until so late :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
yippee 97 is forming!! where is it headed? out to sea ok NEXT
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Sheesh... looks like this is gonna be needed.. whos first?

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Did Pottery finally come out and actually call an early demise to the season.. he was going to.


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just got a new Crackberry... so I have been a bit busy. I found a new ring tone for it... SWMBO is having a small problem with it ;)

Ring Tone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
491. flsky
Quoting Chicklit:


Looks like something is trying to get going but it's a complicated situation out there.
By the way it's 73 degrees this evening in ECFL.
Have had the windows open for two whole days!

Isn't is great! Haven't had the AC on for 3 days now!
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Met Service of Jamaica
October 4, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Trough across Jamaica.

Comment
The Trough is expected to linger across the central Caribbean and Jamaica for the next two to three days. Expect an increase in shower activity late Tuesday evening extending into Wednesday.

24-HOURS FORECAST
Tonight…Partly cloudy becoming fair.
Tomorrow… Partly cloudy morning across northern parishes but mainly sunny elsewhere. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, lingering into the night.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Wed&Thurs…Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoons and lingering into late evening.
Fri… Isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly across central and western parishes.

Regionally…A Tropical Wave with an associated Area of Low Pressure over the northeastern Caribbean remains disorganized, there is a low chance that this system could become a tropical cyclone during the next two days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the Leewards Islands and Puerto Rico.
kjb


More rain??? :-(
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Quoting pottery:

These sat. images can be so confusing....
Look at the WV image on the CMSS site. There is nothing like that area of high cloud there over Africa coast...

Sorry. That was a very convoluted sentence.

The water vapour images on the CMSS site do not show that there is an area of apparent heavy thunderstorm activity on the coast of Africa.
But the image at post 469 looks pretty ominous...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105


Looks like something is trying to get going but it's a complicated situation out there.
By the way it's 73 degrees this evening in ECFL.
Have had the windows open for two whole days!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
487. 7544
the area behind 97l trying to spin ?hmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Quoting sunlinepr:
Inviting some friends to take an Atlantic dive....

sailing to the BVI
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Sheesh... looks like this is gonna be needed.. whos first?

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Did Pottery finally come out and actually call an early demise to the season.. he was going to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


CV season is over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, at least I don't change my season forecast up or down to match the trend line like the " professionals " do every month.
Yeah, I wish I could change my bet in the third quarter of a football game....I'd be a rich man.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
Quoting sunlinepr:
Inviting some friends to take an Atlantic dive....


These sat. images can be so confusing....
Look at the WV image on the CMSS site. There is nothing like that area of high cloud there over Africa coast...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Dmax is calling the shots now.


Dmax will not occur until 4 or 5 am tomorrow.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Evening all, this is interesting:
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.
Jeff Masters


DENIED !!
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Evening all, this is interesting:
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

heheheh, Good One!


And, the last time I checked we were at 14 total LOL.
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Quoting kmanislander:


It was very dry for a long time but I think we caught up. Haven't checked the data recently

OK
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, at least I don't change my season forecast up or down to match the trend line like the " professionals " do every month.

heheheh, Good One!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting pottery:

I was under the impression that you had got a pretty low rainfall so far.
Lower than normal I mean.

We seem to be coming into Petit Careme here. 2 weeks or so, of clear weather, before November deluges us again...


It was very dry for a long time but I think we caught up. Haven't checked the data recently
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Orca's
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
guess you need to fill this out! lol


Well, at least I don't change my season forecast up or down to match the trend line like the " professionals " do every month.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.