97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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670. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Sorry, they were talking about the caribbean. Right now I'd take a TS just for the rain it would bring.


I don't see anything bringing rain for at least the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good grief, where is everyone? Nobody posting model runs anymore? Oh well, guess they have good reason as the season has come to a quick close. Weird one at that. US not even threatened by a cane. Latest gfs threatens south Florida next week with a hurricane (yeah right)
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Sorry, they were talking about the caribbean. Right now I'd take a TS just for the rain it would bring.
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667. IKE
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
TWC is saying we should see Otto around next week and a possibility of Paula after that.
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With the flooding in so many places, we're sitting here with a statewide burn ban. Yesterday we were in a severe weather alert, a warning and then a watch for fire due to winds that could turn a small fire into a monster fire. And no forecasted rain to be seen yet.
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664. IKE
Morning. 49.3 outside...right now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I normally say good morning, everyone, but it looks like it's good morning, Ike today, so Morning, Ike!

It's 52 degrees here, yet forty-five minutes away it's 39 degrees?
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662. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WED THROUGH FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE NW GULF SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL THEN SWEEP
SE ACROSS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN
DECREASE OF SAT.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
florida could be in big trouble.
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Wow....This is exciting!!
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156

ABNT20 KNHC 050536

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS

INCREASED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR

WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT

MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF

DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO

RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.



AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 1000

MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Blog Update 12:55AM CDT 10-5-2010 on 97l? NC flooding and North Texas weather, please stop by and take a look, thanks!!
Link
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UP TO 50 PERCENT ON 97L
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Looks like a TS
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Wow we have very strong SW gusts right now in St Martin!
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off to bed but I wanted to point out before I go that the winds in St. Croix went from 2-5mph to 20mph with gusts 22mph and the pressure is down to 1006mb, 97L is deepening

20 mph / 32.2 km/h / 8.9 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa (Falling)


If it moves over us, it will wake us early in the morning, goodnite all
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off to bed but I wanted to point out before I go that the winds in St. Croix went from 2-5mph to 20mph with gusts 22mph and the pressure is down to 1006mb, 97L is deepening

20 mph / 32.2 km/h / 8.9 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa (Falling)


Heading to bed myself and agree, 97L is gaining steam.
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Quoting mara0921:


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL


Could get interesting after the game though. Models starting to feel out an area in the SW or Central Caribb. With the trough heading off the east coast, it could be left to fester and cause some trouble if in the SW.
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649. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed but I wanted to point out before I go that the winds in St. Croix went from 2-5mph to 20mph with gusts 22mph and the pressure is down to 1006mb, 97L is deepening

20 mph / 32.2 km/h / 8.9 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa (Falling)

Also, buoy to the S of 97L
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting mara0921:


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL


+100
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POSS.T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/97L
MARK
17.48N/64.36W
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


From the looks of it, absolutely perfect.


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL
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Quoting mara0921:
Ok I have a VERY important question to ask you all. Whats the forecast for Saturday Night in Miami for FSU vs Miami. I think this week most of us care about that more than anything else. Thanks. GO NOLES !


Very good weather......which is great....FSU not do so well in rain.....specially against those Canes!!
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Quoting mara0921:
Ok I have a VERY important question to ask you all. Whats the forecast for Saturday Night in Miami for FSU vs Miami. I think this week most of us care about that more than anything else. Thanks. GO NOLES !


From the looks of it, absolutely perfect.
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Kinda sad to see the trough go, it's been really nice here in SEFL.
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Ok I have a VERY important question to ask you all. Whats the forecast for Saturday Night in Miami for FSU vs Miami. I think this week most of us care about that more than anything else. Thanks. GO NOLES !
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Rainy night in St Martin island and surroundings
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X
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Predicted Wave hgt for October 8



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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Marine Grid on Oct 9, click the picture for the full run. Shows the eastern trough gone and a storm brewing in the SW Caribb.




You can also plot a pressure animation..
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Marine Grid on Oct 9, click the picture for the full run. Shows the eastern trough gone and a storm brewing in the SW Caribb.



Link OK, bookmarked
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NHC/TAFB Experimental Marine Grid on Oct 9, click the picture for the full run. Shows the eastern trough gone and a storm brewing in the SW Caribb.

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No need to worry,, CV season is OVER....

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The outflow that was creating the shear that was fencing out PR, just to the NNW of Haiti has been broken....
Seems like now 97L will have free access to move
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Morning/Evening Night Shift....Coffee is ready!!
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Man, I don't know, but it seems like the GOM is sleeping while East of 75W is flaring up....
We should be seeing this patern


Not this one....

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Quoting Dakster:


And you are still alive?

thank for the ringtone i installed
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626. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:
que crees?


Still needs to work quite a bit in the west side, but the east side is looking good.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting JLPR2:
St. Croix is going to get pounded soon.

que crees?
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624. JLPR2


Pressure starting fall, with winds in the 25-26mph range.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting KoritheMan:


Still needs some work on the western side, but yes. I agree. I suspect we'll see Otto from this in the next two days.


Another area I find kinda interesting tonight, is the SW Bahama's.
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Quoting Dakster:


And you are still alive?



You know me... that halo keeps me S&I

Thats ok, for the daughter/S in law and Grandson... I used the ring tone from "the Good the Bad and the Ugly" :)

The Grandson is the the good.. the other two are a toss up :)
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621. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Still needs some work on the western side, but yes. I agree. I suspect we'll see Otto from this in the next two days.


So in your opinion on a scale of 1-10 how will my day be tomorrow?
Weather-wise of course XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Invest97L : NHC-ATCF
4Oct 12amGMT - - 17.6n62.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n63.9w
4Oct 06amGMT - - 17.6n64.1w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n65.4w
4Oct 12pmGMT - - 17.6n64.5w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.7n65.4w
4Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.6n64.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.7n65.8w
5Oct 12amGMT - - 17.5n64.5w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers

Copy&paste 17.6n62.8w-17.6n64.1w, 17.6n64.1w-17.6n64.5w, 17.6n64.5w-17.6n64.8w, 17.6n64.8w-17.5n64.5w, bqn, ngd, gbj into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.