97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kmanislander:


$4.84 in town ( self serve ). I guess they add something to truck it the 24 miles your way.

Anyway, time for me to sign off now. Will check in later depending on what's happening in the Caribbean below Hispaniola.

Bye for now.
Bye and looking forward to your expertise later on.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 month

I checked mine online last night and it was the highest it ever been since I built my house in 98, $485, yet my daily usuage was down, though I was billed for 31 days this month, last month it was 29, something still ain't right. Go figure!!!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know. Even at the gas stations. Almost $5.00 per gallon in East End.


$4.84 in town ( self serve ). I guess they add something to truck it the 24 miles your way.

Anyway, time for me to sign off now. Will check in later depending on what's happening in the Caribbean below Hispaniola.

Bye for now.
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...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N63W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 15N72W AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE AREA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W AND FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH TO
THE LOW CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR WED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NW
AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

(I changed MEDIUM to HIGH because of the raise in percentage)
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716. Relix
97L should move NW and leave moderate-light rain over PR seeing the current development. It was a fun ride to track something so close but it just didn't make it. Not to wait for some of the rains, if they even appear XD!
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Quoting kmanislander:


I'll still do a trade,but the real culprit is the cost of fuel.
I know. Even at the gas stations. Almost $5.00 per gallon in East End.
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Visible satellite view of the Atlantic basin
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 months.


I'll still do a trade,but the real culprit is the cost of fuel.
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Visible satellite view of 97L and the Caribbean
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Quoting kmanislander:


I'll trade you for mine LOL
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 months.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, it seemed extra hot this year. Hopefully my light bill will go down now. It has been outrageous.


I'll trade you for mine LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:


I did notice that after work around 6 it was noticeably cooler than a couple of weeks ago. Almost a fall like feel to it. Can't come too soon for me, I've had enough of the heat this summer.
Yes, it seemed extra hot this year. Hopefully my light bill will go down now. It has been outrageous.
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A tropical disturbance has appeared in the SW Indian basin.

South Indian Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/0830 UTC 4.6S 81.0E T1.0/1.0 INVEST
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Here is a look at the area South of Hispaniola from the ASCAT pass last night. You can see that it is really the SW end of the overall low known as 97L. It is moving away though and once it seperates itself from the low near PR it will stand a better chance of developing.

Notice also the area in the SW Caribbean that was partially caught by the pass.

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Hi everyone,
From this Link, 97L is not forecast to dissipate within the next 126 hours.
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705. Relix
97L 60%. Wow surprise there. Movement is to the NW so I am certain it won't affect us as bad anymore.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have been noticing it also and looked for your comments yesterday but only saw you post once. It seems to have cooled down at night some.


I did notice that after work around 6 it was noticeably cooler than a couple of weeks ago. Almost a fall like feel to it. Can't come too soon for me, I've had enough of the heat this summer.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

I have been watching that area since yesterday morning and posted about it a few times yesterday and last night. The pressure with it was around 1007 mbs yesterday and 4 of the models break this piece of energy off from 97L and spin it up in the SW Caribbean where there is already some convection associated with vorticity at the 850 mb level.

Something to watch over the next couple of days but in the meantime very nice conditions prevail here after all of the rain.
I have been noticing it also and looked for your comments yesterday but only saw you post once. It seems to have cooled down at night some.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Pressure dropped and looks to have a spin to it.


Good morning

I have been watching that area since yesterday morning and posted about it a few times yesterday and last night. The pressure with it was around 1007 mbs yesterday and 4 of the models break this piece of energy off from 97L and spin it up in the SW Caribbean where there is already some convection associated with vorticity at the 850 mb level.

Something to watch over the next couple of days but in the meantime very nice conditions prevail here after all of the rain.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11520
699. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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...nuthing

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
That area south of Hispaniola is interesting ...





Pressure dropped and looks to have a spin to it.
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693. Relix
Darnit, looks awful again =P
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That area south of Hispaniola is interesting ...





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Good Morning - fast pass through - having 'computer troubs this week - Sorry to read about your FIRE hazard Aislinn - let's hope you all get some rain to quench that .... off to grab an early morning session b/4 work -- winds make for some waves yesterday -- very choppy -- might be glassy this AM -- got to hope.

Good day to all - might be MIA for a bit till this darn box gets fixed
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. I know the past several days convection in that area has been very persistent. I wonder if that will be what jump starts the development in the sw Caribbean they are predicting.


Yeah, That's what it looks like. Gfs locks on it and has the last several runs
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Off to my classroom, being observed today, so need to be on my toes. Kids better behave themselves! Have a great Tuesday everyone!
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Quoting IKE:
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....



Good morning IKE!! Hope you right about northern GOMEX!!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning those who just came in.
Good morning.
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Quoting IKE:


Not that I've read.
Thanks. I know the past several days convection in that area has been very persistent. I wonder if that will be what jump starts the development in the sw Caribbean they are predicting.
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Good morning those who just came in.
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Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
HAS ENCOMPASSED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EAST COAST. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE
WEEKEND...THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARM TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
DROP OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED STARTING TUE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP OUT OF CANADA AND
RESUME THE NICE WX BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ONCE IT SENDS A COLD
FRONT THOUGH.



Hope it brings some rain! But I am loving the cooler weather. And when my son gets home from Germany in the next week, he'll be able to catch up on the yard work. He's coming from temps in the 30s, so will really enjoy the 70s and 80s.
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97l is now south of Vieques.The low with convection blowing on top.
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680. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. Anything going on with the blob south of Hispaniola ?


Not that I've read.
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Whoa, latest gfs doesn't look good for Florida. Take it with a grain of salt though..
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Good Morning...
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Quoting WeatherMum:
We've been lucky in the panhandle for a few years.
you had more than your share of bad ones before that
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look at those pouchies lined up near the e. carib. going to be a party
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Quoting IKE:
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....

Good morning everyone. Anything going on with the blob south of Hispaniola ?
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Quoting mara0921:


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL
We've been lucky in the panhandle for a few years.
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
673. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
HAS ENCOMPASSED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EAST COAST. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE
WEEKEND...THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARM TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
DROP OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED STARTING TUE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP OUT OF CANADA AND
RESUME THE NICE WX BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ONCE IT SENDS A COLD
FRONT THOUGH.

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Quoting IKE:


I don't see anything bringing rain for at least the next 7-10 days.


That's what I'm afraid of. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
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But I think Louisiana is out of the picture for any TS's at this point. Guess we need something to come down out of Canada for the needed rain. Or from wherever it wants to come from...
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670. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Sorry, they were talking about the caribbean. Right now I'd take a TS just for the rain it would bring.


I don't see anything bringing rain for at least the next 7-10 days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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