97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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.." leaves are falling all around,,time I was on my way"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting Neapolitan:


You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but would you mind sharing with the rest of us your forecasting methodology? You may eventually be proven right, but, frankly, climatologys doesn't agree with you, and neither do the SSTs in most areas of the MDR.


It is what is known in older circles as "Wishing in one hand"; sometimes it works, but it fails spectacularly on occasions as well. The smart ones wait and watch
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.

Pass the 9/16th's Box End wrench please,,
Sorry!
I could lend you a 13mm.
But you would need to hammer it on.
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Quoting oracle28 (#109):


Yes, there shouldn't be any more major canes this year. And the strongest that I'd expect to hit the U.S. might be a tropical storm, and only 2 have hit the U.S. this year, Bonnie and Hermine.


You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but would you mind sharing with the rest of us your forecasting methodology? You may eventually be proven right, but, frankly, climatology doesn't agree with you, and neither do the SSTs in most areas of the MDR.
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Quoting Patrap:
Never have I seen a summer like the one just past,,Fall here is early and I for one embrace it like a long lost friend

Nice Pat.
Hope it stays cool, and does not get cold!
Enjoy it, it sounds good.
We are going to swelter for a couple more months, looks like...
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The rain and the thunderstorms don't love us in st barth's. What are they waiting for to come on us and stay a week. We want water, we won't thunderstorms... Guadeloupe and Antigua have enough. Come now !!!!
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Quoting dayton:
I make the comment about the U.S. being safe from a hit for the rest of the season based on the blocking troughs we seem to have to deflect a storm, and on the cool temperatures that have reached so far south, and for the cooling sea temperatures.

I'm not an expert - actually I'm a lurker looking for information and asking questions. It just seems that all the forecasters were predicting big and absolute hits for the U.S. this year, and it just did not materialize. I would be interested in hearing from those experts for an explanation. Not trying to come down on anyone...just trying to learn.

Thanks for the all the info!


Well, not all the forecasters called for absolute hits, though some did. Based on climatology alone, having so many named systems in the Atlantic practically guaranteed a CONUS hit--or two, or three. But as I've been saying over and over: the season isn't over yet. No, SSTs are not what they were a month ago, but they were at record highs, and they're still up there in cyclone range.

I'm not predicting anything huge, either, but consider this: 2005's Wilma was born as an area of low pressure on October 13 of that year...and the waters where she was born hold considerably more heat energy than they did that year.
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Never have I seen a summer like the one just past,,Fall here is early and I for one embrace it like a long lost friend.

Pass the 9/16th's Box End wrench please,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting dayton:
I take it that the U.S. coast is out of the woods for a direct hurricane hit the rest of the season?

I'm not sure why all the forecasters were wrong this year, but it looks like we dodge a major bullet from what was forecasted.


Yes, there shouldn't be any more major canes this year. And the strongest that I'd expect to hit the U.S. might be a tropical storm, and only 2 have hit the U.S. this year, Bonnie and Hermine.
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mid 50s here on the SC coast this morn, loving it after such a brutal summer
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Quoting dayton:
I make the comment about the U.S. being safe from a hit for the rest of the season based on the blocking troughs we seem to have to deflect a storm, and on the cool temperatures that have reached so far south, and for the cooling sea temperatures.

I'm not an expert - actually I'm a lurker looking for information and asking questions. It just seems that all the forecasters were predicting big and absolute hits for the U.S. this year, and it just did not materialize. I would be interested in hearing from those experts for an explanation. Not trying to come down on anyone...just trying to learn.

Thanks for the all the info!

I am hoping for some good comments on the situation as well.
There were reasons to fear for an abnormally bad season.
There are reasons that it was not abnormally bad.
What are/were the reasons?

I dont mean "shear/dry air caused it".
I mean, "what caused the conditions that were apparently not seen in advance?"
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Quoting dayton:
I make the comment about the U.S. being safe from a hit for the rest of the season based on the blocking troughs we seem to have to deflect a storm, and on the cool temperatures that have reached so far south, and for the cooling sea temperatures.

I'm not an expert - actually I'm a lurker looking for information and asking questions. It just seems that all the forecasters were predicting big and absolute hits for the U.S. this year, and it just did not materialize. I would be interested in hearing from those experts for an explanation. Not trying to come down on anyone...just trying to learn.

Thanks for the all the info!


It's not over till it's over. enjoy the pattern cause the tropics will most likely get a bit active afterwards and possibly pose a threat to the CONUS. 2 months, especially when La Nina causes more late season activity. Don't let your guard down till December 1st.
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Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Pott?..I heard you had a bit of rain down there...It was 33 degrees here this morning. One city near me was down to 25.

Hi There!
Plenty rain. 1" last night again with flashes and rumbles....
Overcast (high cloud) and HOT right now. 86F...
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Quoting calusakat (#90):


For the last 150 years?

That is not very many...

Whats up with that?


Did you notice that was a GOM-only map? It doesn't show storms that affected only the Caribbean or only the Atlantic. But that's almost besides the point. The image was posted in response to those declaring the 2010 season suddenly over with. They might wish it so, or might think it is based on what's going on at this very minute, but, climatologically-speaking, it's far from over. The image, I think, is proof of that.
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Quoting Patrap:
Itsa a lovely day to do a Brake Job..so Im gonna sip away and get to it.

"sip'' away!
But in case you dont know., thats not going to help at all. LOL
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Quoting calusakat:


For the last 150 years?

That is not very many, I can't count more than 75 to 80 storms on that map.

If there were only one storm per year in that period of time the map would still have a great many more than are depicted on it.

Whats up with that?

Yeah, good point!
It would need a pretty thorough examination of all of those years to see what conditions applied where, then compare all that to now, to see if it is relevant.

Since we are fast approaching the "GW Comments Season" (tm), (LOL), I would throw-out that we have yet to come to terms with the effects of Climate Change on our weather.
Did the relatively low temp. differential from Equator to Pole have an effect on this season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I make the comment about the U.S. being safe from a hit for the rest of the season based on the blocking troughs we seem to have to deflect a storm, and on the cool temperatures that have reached so far south, and for the cooling sea temperatures.

I'm not an expert - actually I'm a lurker looking for information and asking questions. It just seems that all the forecasters were predicting big and absolute hits for the U.S. this year, and it just did not materialize. I would be interested in hearing from those experts for an explanation. Not trying to come down on anyone...just trying to learn.

Thanks for the all the info!
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Quoting pottery:

OK!!
in any case, 2010 has been by far, the most Intriguing season I have followed, since 2005.
More surprises?
Probably!
On both sides of the coin?
Probably!
Wuzup Pott?..I heard you had a bit of rain down there...It was 33 degrees here this morning. One city near me was down to 25.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Yup.. your going to need it
Quoting Neapolitan:
But it has been an "unusually active" season, and there's a lot of it left.

A) 2010 has already had more tropical cyclones than six of the previous 15 seasons, all of which, of course, are included in the "current active hurricane era". Just two more named systems--which I'll bet my life on happening--will put 2010 ahead of all but three of those previous 15.

B) It's sort of a misstatement to call GOM SSTs "marginal" at 26.C-28.C. Except for a few very tiny areas, the entire GOM is still capable of generating and sustaining tropical cyclone activity. No, the temps aren't August hot...but they're plenty warm.

No professional forecaster is going to tell anyone that the season is over. In 1991, tropical activity seemed over as of September 12 with the demise of TS Erika. It hadn't been a busy year: two hurricanes and a small handful of tropical storms. And September rolled into October and cold fronts started sweeping southward as they always do, causing people to no doubt proclaim the 1991 Atlantic Hurricane Season as officially over.

But then...

On October 15th, what would become TS Fabian formed in the Gulf of Honduras. On the 24th, TD 10 popped up in the Atlantic. On the 26th--just two days later--Hurricane Grace, which would become a Cat 2 storm--formed in the cold waters just south of Bermuda. Two days after that, the Cat 1 1991 Unnamed Hurricane formed in even colder waters farther north. This storm was an extratropical system that moved south over the Gulf Stream, where it took on tropical characteristics (though the NHC didn't name it "Henri" to avoid scaring the public).

The big deal about that is, of course, that Grace's remains mixed with "Henri's" and a strong cold front to become the deadly and devastating "Perfect Storm".

I'll repeat--until I'm blue in the face, or at least until December 1st, whichever comes first--the 2010 hurricane season isn't over. :-)

OK!!
in any case, 2010 has been by far, the most Intriguing season I have followed, since 2005.
More surprises?
Probably!
On both sides of the coin?
Probably!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

That's about all 97L is bringing at the moment...quite a soaking
Not to organized at this time..Interesting to watch though. It is strange, here we were tracking monster hurricanes and then practically nuthin..It is my belief this will change by late October into November..
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Itsa a lovely day to do a Brake Job..so Im gonna sip away and get to it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Brrrrr...

almost.

Def a 2 java Morning though.

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 48 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
64.0 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 43%
Dew Point: 41 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 5.4 mph
Pressure: 30.27 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 9.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting Neapolitan:


First part: absolutely untrue. See the image below, which shows all post-September hurricanes and tropical storms in the GOM over the past 150 years.

Second part: because of the first part, it's far too early to say, "...all the forecasters were wrong this year" If Nicole was the season's last, then go ahead and restate that on December 1 and I'll try to explain...

Post-September tropical cyclones in the GOM over the past 15 decades (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image




For the last 150 years?

That is not very many, I can't count more than 75 to 80 storms on that map.

If there were only one storm per year in that period of time the map would still have a great many more than are depicted on it.

Whats up with that?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Mornin' Hydrus.

Couldn't agree with you more. Nothing like a good old fashioned cup of coffee. Well, sometimes pot of coffee depending on the day...
I drink about a pot a day, no sugar, no milk. I believe in its benefits wholeheartedly. Some people cannot have it because the caffeine can give them headaches or have other adverse effects.....Looks like a lot of rain associated with 97L...
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Quoting hydrus:
They put to much sugar and other crap in those things. Believe it or not, just a plain cup of coffee is FAR better for you then those energy drinks. Coffee is loaded with anti-oxidants...

I know, its cheaper too :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


Talk about rain, I just ran into this reading about some of the deadliest Hurricanes ever.
Wow 100" of rain!!
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Severe flooding in Barbados & recent reports of winds strong enough to remove house roofs & up root trees. Here in Dominica increasingly heavy rain accompanied with strong wind.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Exactly, I need to get going this morning and my Monster energy drink is not working!!
They put to much sugar and other crap in those things. Believe it or not, just a plain cup of coffee is FAR better for you then those energy drinks. Coffee is loaded with anti-oxidants...
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Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 4th. 2010


Very good as always, thank you very much.
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This was a super powerful storm and the artical is loaded with cool info..The Great Hurricane of 1780....Link
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes, yes...Prescription strength for Bord...(stat)..

Exactly, I need to get going this morning and my Monster energy drink is not working!! And 97L needs a shot of Geritol too :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

Pass the Geritol over here please :O)
Yes, yes...Prescription strength for Bord...(stat)..
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Quoting angiest:


mid 50s in west Houston this morning , and we could conceivably hit the upper 40s the next couple of mornings.

The house geckos and the frogs that hang around the front porch aren't liking it. Haven't really seen the frogs much in the last week, and didn't see any of the geckos this morning.
It was a wonderful 51 up in Tomball (NW of Houston) this morning. I LOVE IT!
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By the time 97 makes it to TD status the season will be over LOL
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GOM is still deliciously warm. Enjoyed a rare day off and spent it swimming for three hours and getting burned. Sunny, DRY air mass, 87. It was fabulous.
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...don't need it...

Now the blog, on the other hand
I know. I posted that to get you to laugh. You have not reached the Grothar threshhold !.:)
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Quoting Floodman:


LOL...don't need it...

Now the blog, on the other hand

Pass the Geritol over here please :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning old dude..Geritol this mornin....?..:)


LOL...don't need it...

Now the blog, on the other hand
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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