97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya now 156 post in 4 hours! That is some nice traffic. Too Bad what this use to be. Much abuse and harressment has occured on here for no reason and for some time. Watch this comment be removed. Someone copy and paste it fast.....LOL


If you were a nicer guy, no one would pick on you! How you doing T????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Quoting kshipre1:
Neapolitan,

Good afternoon. I just wanted to say that I have seen you in this chat room numerous times and I must say it is a plesure to have you in here. You really bring a very calming sense to this blog and you always say things in a very mannerful and intelligent way. Your knowledge and comments are greatly appreciated.

You actually sometimes say things in a philosopher kind of way which is cool. I look forward to your insight and chatting with you.


Why, thank you for the very kind words. There are some in here who would disagree with you--I know, because they email me--but I try. Really I do. :-)
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Quoting reedzone:


It's me.. notice the different picture and 2 E's in the name.


It is good to see you, Reed. I am always interested in reading your interpretations of current weather events.
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is that why you are saying that Florida could still have a tropical cyclone or two in October?

I checked the seven day forecast and it is pretty nice, sunny and dry. I guess things will change after that?
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Quoting kshipre1:
Neapolitan,

Good afternoon. I just wanted to say that I have seen you in this chat room numerous times and I must say it is a plesure to have you in here. You really bring a very calming sense to this blog and you always say things in a very mannerful and intelligent way. Your knowledge and comments are greatly appreciated.

You actually sometimes say things in a philosopher kind of way which is cool. I look forward to your insight and chatting with you.

I Agree with that....
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Neapolitan,

Good afternoon. I just wanted to say that I have seen you in this chat room numerous times and I must say it is a plesure to have you in here. You really bring a very calming sense to this blog and you always say things in a very mannerful and intelligent way. Your knowledge and comments are greatly appreciated.

You actually sometimes say things in a philosopher kind of way which is cool. I look forward to your insight and chatting with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Cool as it has been over the south, only one record low has been set in the entire area over the past two days, and just a handful (22) of record lows or record low maximums have been set in the entire country. Contrast that with 198 record highs or record high minimums over the same period. In other words, the news of the Great Autumn Cold Snap of 2010 has been greatly exaggerated:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

When was that "record cold snap'' supposed to happen?
Could it still?
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For SurfMom, and all you other surfers out there:

Scott Stripling - Meteorologist
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
National Hurricane Center

... how then does a surfer start a career in meteorology?


Well I am not such a hard core a surfer these days. Miami surf is very inconsistent, to say the least, but not the surf mecca I have been accustomed to in Puerto Rico...

------------------

October issue of Q&A about NHC professionals:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/q_and_a_201010_scott_stripling.shtml


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Is stormjunkie around? He mentioned he was staying in New Bern, but hadn't heard from him since.
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Good morning

Based upon data from the ASCAT pass, buoy 42059 located at 15 N and 67.4 W and reports from ground stations located on the SW corner of PR, I don't see 97L passing North of Hispaniola unless it starts a NNW heading right now.

The buoy last reported WNW winds and the ground stations show South winds. That places the center of the surface low to the SW of the SW corner of PR near 68 W approximately.

This position is due South of the Mona passage which means that 97L is well to the South of a track to take it along the North Coast of Hispaniola. The only way for it to get there now would be to cross over that island and such a passage would likely spell the end of the system due to very mountainous terrain. The other alternative would be for the center to reform to the NE of the current position.

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Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree, as i keep getting bashed by this one guy on here and have reported him on numerous occasions and admin keeps him on. That is what drives people out of here. Canwarning for example got picked on for days and eventually the poor guy snaped.


Ya now 156 post in 4 hours! That is some nice traffic. Too Bad what this use to be. Much abuse and harressment has occured on here for no reason and for some time. Watch this comment be removed. Someone copy and paste it fast.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cool as it has been over the south, only one record low has been set in the entire area over the past two days, and just a handful (22) of record lows or record low maximums have been set in the entire country. Contrast that with 198 record highs or record high minimums over the same period. In other words, the news of the Great Autumn Cold Snap of 2010 has been greatly exaggerated:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


I second that! We should be able to give our opinions without being bashed on here. unfortunately people don't play by the rules anymore and it has caused many great examiners of the weather to leave this blog.



Yes it has. I am not claiming to be good by any means but, i use to come on here much more often. I have just been lurking all morning. Heck when i did my updates i use to post them on here to let those that like know. Now i have stopped doing that. I figure if anyone wants info that can go to my blog to see if its updated. I have stopped posting that i have updated on this main blog.
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Quoting Jeff9641:



Is this the correct one? I know there has been an imposter here lately claiming to be Reedzone.


It's me.. notice the different picture and 2 E's in the name.
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Quoting oracle28:


I never said storms would not fire up. I said I didn't think there would be any more majors and that if anything hit the U.S. it would be at most a tropical storm.

People read far too much into other's posts. I was just giving my opinionated answer to another poster's question. Relax.

Let me BE wrong before you TELL me I'm wrong.


Ummm, it appears you didn't actually read my repsonse to your post. Here it is in its entirety so you don't need to go back and look for it:

"You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but would you mind sharing with the rest of us your forecasting methodology? You may eventually be proven right, but, frankly, climatology doesn't agree with you, and neither do the SSTs in most areas of the MDR."

So, as you can see, I didn't tell you you were wrong; I simply--and, I thought, very politely--asked for you to share with the rest of us here how you came to your conclusion, especially in light of that fact that it doesn't jibe with either most official forecasts or climatology. That's all.

So...what was that you said about reading too much into other people's posts? :-)
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Quoting pottery:

Good to see you Reedzone.


Hey Pottery,
It's beautiful outside, I might take a bikeride later. Enjoying the fall weather, was driving last night with the windows down and it actually got a little chilly. I still think the 2010 Hurricane Season has a few more tricks up it's sleeve, over all, the USA dodged a bullet. Now if Earl had not took that erratic jog east after crossing 75W, we would have been talking about an East Coast Hurricane. Luckily it took that small jogged that brought it away from the coastline. I'm calling for 3-5 more storms, 2 of those possible reaching Hurricane status whether it be in the Western Caribbean or out in the open Atlantic (Epsilon, Delta, Vince type storms), one more major. Those waters are still relatively warm down there.
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S to SSW winds at 16.5N/63.5W since yesterday afternoon:

Link

W to WSW winds at 15N/67.5W since 3am:

Link

Pressure dropping at above station, but nothing dramatic or unusual.

Link

Nothing overly indicative here and it doesn't fit well with the vort maps for the vorticity to be S of PR. Would have liked to have seen the west half of that ASCAT pass.

FWIW, Taking S of PR as a center point, there are S winds to the E, E winds to the N, and W winds to the S. Just don't have the N winds to the W, although it could be inferred from the N winds at buoy 42059 prior to the wind shift to out of the W.

Nothing too windy either.
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I kinda think the whole "we'll have x number of named storms, x number of hurricanes, and x number of majors...etc" is silly. Actually, I find it a bit rediculous. Organizations should simply state we will have a below average, average, above average season... and here is the criteria for what those terms mean". Otherwise, it's just guessing based on that criteria and for what? Bragging rights/egos? The season ain't over 'till it's over, plus some of us still have to worry about flooding from Nor'easters etc... speaking of which it's been blowing a little nor'easter like since sunday. We have a coastal flood advisory or warning here and I have had water in my yard the last couple of high tide cycles.
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Quoting reedzone:


I second that! We should be able to give our opinions without being bashed on here. unfortunately people don't play by the rules anymore and it has caused many great examiners of the weather to leave this blog.

Good to see you Reedzone.
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Quoting IKE:


+1.


I second that! We should be able to give our opinions without being bashed on here. unfortunately people don't play by the rules anymore and it has caused many great examiners of the weather to leave this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. JLPR2
Something interesting to see, is this
ULL making its way to the surface.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
As StormJunkie and portlight assessed the situation in N. Carolina,,,we came across this Older woman who can use a hand from us.

Presslord just got off the phone with this kind soul and she was in tears over hearing were gonna help her.

So I ask everyone to consider helping us, help her.

We can change Lives for the better,,and thats what were gonna do here.

Cuz we can.


Dayle White is a widow from Jacksonville, NC, who lost about 60% of her belongings and her landlord is unsure when or if she'll be able to return to her home. Her renters' insurance (Nationwide) is denying her coverage due to lack of flood coverage. She is on a limited fixed income. She is in need of a place to live...as well as clothes and furniture. We want to help her get another apartment, as well as some clothing and furniture. She is particularly upset over the loss of her recliner chair, which was destroyed.

Please help as you can. And know that Ms. White will be grateful.

We are identifying others in need and will post their stories as things come into focus.


portlight.org

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141. IKE
Quoting oracle28:


I never said storms would not fire up. I said I didn't think there would be any more majors and that if anything hit the U.S. it would be at most a tropical storm.

People read far too much into other's posts. I was just giving my opinionated answer to another poster's question. Relax.

Let me BE wrong before you TELL me I'm wrong.


+1.
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ASCAT:

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Quoting Jeff9641:
97L needs a raise I see. Expect a raise to 40 percent at the 2.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html

HEH!!
Last week, I commented on the fact that 97L looked like a Scorpion.
But then it's tail was off to the East...

Well, it is beginning to look Scorpio-like again, but the tail is West.

And we all know what "west" means.....

There is a Sale on Shower-Curtains at the Mall near you...
Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, climatology is what we have to go on. And if climatology--the historical data set to which you alluded--says that dozens and dozens of tropical cyclones have spun up in the Atlantic MDR during the post-September months over the past many, many years, it's not wise, I think, to resolutely state it won't or can't happen this year.

Look: while there's much more that goes into cyclogenesis than simply an ample supply of hot water, it would pay to remember just how much heat there is trapped and untapped in the NW Caribbean. Water warm enough to drive cyclogenesis extends in some places down to 500 feet and more. I can assure you it'll take more to cool that water down to sub-cyclone levels than a breeze blowing over it for a few days.

Yes, atmospheric conditions aren't currently ripe in the Gulf or the western Caribbean to fire anything up...but one thing is certain, and that's that those conditions will not stay that way.

No forecaster worth his or her degree can promise any further 2010 TC landfalls...but neither can they promise it won't happen.

I have not said the "season" is over, or that no more storm-systems will spin up.
I am saying that this season has not lived up to the forecasts (could still do that, but unlikely).
And I dont want to get into splitting hairs about whether 10 storms or 14 storms manifests a high or low count.

I am interested in the overall (including the E. Pac.), from the point of view of the Forecasts (pre season), compared to the current counts.
And I would love to know the REASONS behind the LOWER THAN FORECAST numbers/impacts/etc.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, climatology is what we have to go on. And if climatology--the historical data set to which you alluded--says that dozens and dozens of tropical cyclones have spun up in the Atlantic MDR during the post-September months over the past many, many years, it's not wise, I think, to resolutely state it won't or can't happen this year.

Look: while there's much more that goes into cyclogenesis than simply an ample supply of hot water, it would pay to remember just how much heat there is trapped and untapped in the NW Caribbean. Water warm enough to drive cyclogenesis extends in some places down to 500 feet and more. I can assure you it'll take more to cool that water down to sub-cyclone levels than a breeze blowing over it for a few days.

Yes, atmospheric conditions aren't currently ripe in the Gulf or the western Caribbean to fire anything up...but one thing is certain, and that's that those conditions will not stay that way.

No forecaster worth his or her degree can promise any further 2010 TC landfalls...but neither can they promise it won't happen.


I never said storms would not fire up. I said I didn't think there would be any more majors and that if anything hit the U.S. it would be at most a tropical storm.

People read far too much into other's posts. I was just giving my opinionated answer to another poster's question. Relax.

Let me BE wrong before you TELL me I'm wrong.
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Quoting PakaSurvivor:
It was 40F at 4AM in Crestview, (Panhandle) Florida. Way too cold for anytime of the season. Would someone please pay the heating bill so I (and the dog)can warm up? Please!
10 degrees warmer on the sound....sorry you missed it!
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Quoting pottery (#123):
But (and without wanting to stir up any noises), ..
I dont believe that Climo. is a relevant comparison.
I think we need to take into account that overall, some climatic conditions have/or are changed.
How this will change weather is a question we dont know the answer to, as yet.

Cilmo. is a Historical Data set, basically.

And Historically, have we been here before??


Well, climatology is what we have to go on. And if climatology--the historical data set to which you alluded--says that dozens and dozens of tropical cyclones have spun up in the Atlantic MDR during the post-September months over the past many, many years, it's not wise, I think, to resolutely state it won't or can't happen this year.

Look: while there's much more that goes into cyclogenesis than simply an ample supply of hot water, it would pay to remember just how much heat there is trapped and untapped in the NW Caribbean. Water warm enough to drive cyclogenesis extends in some places down to 500 feet and more. I can assure you it'll take more to cool that water down to sub-cyclone levels than a breeze blowing over it for a few days.

Yes, atmospheric conditions aren't currently ripe in the Gulf or the western Caribbean to fire anything up...but one thing is certain, and that's that those conditions will not stay that way.

No forecaster worth his or her degree can promise any further 2010 TC landfalls...but neither can they promise it won't happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
97L needs a raise I see. Expect a raise to 40 percent at the 2.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html

HEH!!
Last week, I commented on the fact that 97L looked like a Scorpion.
But then it's tail was off to the East...

Well, it is beginning to look Scorpio-like again, but the tail is West.

And we all know what "west" means.....

There is a Sale on Shower-Curtains at the Mall near you...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Obligatory Gratuitous Tropical Image for continuity.

WV False Colour Image 97L

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It was 40F at 4AM in Crestview, (Panhandle) Florida. Way too cold for anytime of the season. Would someone please pay the heating bill so I (and the dog)can warm up? Please!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
W Pac is having one of the quietest seasons in history. I do feel that we may still have a major in the Caribbean over the next few weeks that could affect the SE US.


You are right. I dread to think of a future Wilma but the Caribbean has to release that high SST.
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Quoting Patrap:
Never have I seen a summer like the one just past,,Fall here is early and I for one embrace it like a long lost friend.

Pass the 9/16th's Box End wrench please,,
Which one? The one that looks like jaws?
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125. KUEFC
Quoting Jeff9641:
97L needs a raise I see. Expect a raise to 40 percent at the 2.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html


And there you go, i rest my case :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:


You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but would you mind sharing with the rest of us your forecasting methodology? You may eventually be proven right, but, frankly, climatologys doesn't agree with you, and neither do the SSTs in most areas of the MDR.
You are making good points again..
But (and without wanting to stir up any noises), ..
I dont believe that Climo. is a relevant comparison.
I think we need to take into account that overall, some climatic conditions have/or are changed.
How this will change weather is a question we dont know the answer to, as yet.

Cilmo. is a Historical Data set, basically.

And Historically, have we been here before??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.