97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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As StormJunkie and portlight assessed the situation in N. Carolina,,,we came across this elderly woman who can use a hand from us.

Presslord just got off the phone with this kind soul and she was in tears over hearing were gonna help her.

So I ask everyone to consider helping us help her.

We can change Lives for the better,,and thats what were gonna do here.

Cuz we can.


Dayle White is a widow from Jacksonville, NC, who lost about 60% of her belongings and her landlord is unsure when or if she'll be able to return to her home. Her renters' insurance (Nationwide) is denying her coverage due to lack of flood coverage. She is on a limited fixed income. She is in need of a place to live...as well as clothes and furniture. We want to help her get another apartment, as well as some clothing and furniture. She is particularly upset over the loss of her recliner chair, which was destroyed.

Please help as you can. And know that Ms. White will be grateful.

We are identifying others in need and will post their stories as things come into focus.


portlight.org


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting Skyepony:
NC town expected to remain under water for days
October 04, 2010 08:15 EDT

WINDSOR, N.C. (AP) -- At least one eastern North Carolina town is expected to remain under water for several more days after the heavy rain caused by a storm last week.

The North Carolina State Emergency Response Team says much of Windsor in Bertie County is expected to remain under water for several days. The downtown was evacuated last week along with more than 40 residents from a nursing home.

Gov. Beverly Perdue visited Windsor on Sunday, comparing the damage to that caused by Hurricane Floyd's floodwaters in 1999. Perdue encouraged anyone who rebuilds to elevate their buildings. She says people who did that after Floyd didn't suffer any damage from the most recent flooding.

The rain is being blamed for at least six deaths in traffic accidents.


Floyd was worse here because Dennis came through first and saturated everything and filled the Rivers to capacity
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213. Skyepony (Mod)
NC town expected to remain under water for days
October 04, 2010 08:15 EDT

WINDSOR, N.C. (AP) -- At least one eastern North Carolina town is expected to remain under water for several more days after the heavy rain caused by a storm last week.

The North Carolina State Emergency Response Team says much of Windsor in Bertie County is expected to remain under water for several days. The downtown was evacuated last week along with more than 40 residents from a nursing home.

Gov. Beverly Perdue visited Windsor on Sunday, comparing the damage to that caused by Hurricane Floyd's floodwaters in 1999. Perdue encouraged anyone who rebuilds to elevate their buildings. She says people who did that after Floyd didn't suffer any damage from the most recent flooding.

The rain is being blamed for at least six deaths in traffic accidents.
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gfs is interesting. a florida straights threat?
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Quoting reedzone:


Some of them were very close this year. For example, I had predicted Alex to hit Northern Mexico. It made him mad and he started bashing my "opinion" on an outlier forecast for the storm to head more north. Earl was another successful one of mine, models had it hitting Bermuda, I had it scraping the East Coast. Was pretty close with Nicole's track. I really don't think I'm "wishcasting" anything.
...and what was your prediction for Nicole??
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thanks Jeff but what about october tropical chances?
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Quoting Grothar:


Only 6, pot. But I can insult people in 5 others. Comes in handy sometimes. I write to futuremet in Creole, but he always answers in English. Think you are going to stay dry this week?

We ought to be in our Petit Careme, right now.
It's a phenomena that has been observed for as long as History...
It's trying, but there is still a lot of moisture around.
During Petit Careme we can expect 2 weeks (or so) of clear skies and bright, hot days.
Traditionally, the Planters looked forward to the period to repair things like roads and drains, and to catch their breath before the next swamping.
November is often our highest rainfall month. Around 300mm average (about 12" for our American friends)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Nice spin on little system just se of Andros Island.
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Quoting CycloneUK:


La Nina still going strong

Very strong.
And as Forecasted, we have had a very wet Rainy Season here along the coast of Venezuela, right through to the Pacific coast of Central America.
But not many named systems...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting BobinTampa:


it's not unusual for this place to slow to a crawl when there's nothing going on. Especially once you walk outside and feel fall in the air. If something develops, it will blow up in here again.


I can actually forecast the odds of a tropical system hitting South Florida by logging on and seeing how many ppm (posts per minute) there are. Slow = All Clear; 200 ppm = Miami Cat 5 coming.
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La Nina still going strong
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197. KUEFC
Quoting Jeff9641:


On storm grazes by FL in 9 days then a ull dips in the gulf and could potentially soak FL. Almost resembles a weak EL-Nino with a active Sub Tropical Jet. Euro and GFS seem to agree on this and this is very uncharacteristic of a strong La Nina.


And there you are mentioning florida being hit by a storm,
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Quoting TampaSpin:


DUDE that was un called for. EVeryone one here already knows i am a jerk.....LOL......Good to see you too!


Aw, come on now, not everyone! LOL.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Hi Reed:

What do you see that is in store for CONUS for mid and late October?


Not really sure Joe, for the next 7-10 days, the CONUS is safe. After that, things will get interesting.
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel bad Jeff, a guy starting bashing me last week thinking I was correcting him and I never even made a reference to him. It was a private joke between GeoffWPB and Orca. Somehow or another, he thought I was talking about him. Never even saw his post. Got really nasty to me, TO ME!!! The nicest guy on the blog. LOL Just have to learn to not even answer them. He was trying to give me a language lesson. LOL Guess he didn't know what I do for a living.

Silly him!
Everyone here knows you talk crap in 11 languages....
heheheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree, as i keep getting bashed by this one guy on here and have reported him on numerous occasions and admin keeps him on. That is what drives people out of here. Canwarning for example got picked on for days and eventually the poor guy snaped.


Don't feel bad Jeff, a guy starting bashing me last week thinking I was correcting him and I never even made a reference to him. It was a private joke between GeoffWPB and Orca. Somehow or another, he thought I was talking about him. Never even saw his post. Got really nasty to me, TO ME!!! The nicest guy on the blog. LOL Just have to learn to not even answer them. He was trying to give me a language lesson. LOL Guess he didn't know what I do for a living.
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Jeff,

please pardon my ignorance on this matter but what exactly is a sub tropical jet? And does this unusual pattern bring the potential of more tropical cyclones to Florida in the next month?
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welcome
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Remember i said this pattern is resembling a weak EL-Nino well here you go. It looks as if October has a lot rain in store for FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_336.shtml



am I reading that wrong? Looks like less than 1/2 an inch over two weeks.
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Quoting Grothar:


No,diaper change! Feel good enough to join the crowd. How is it down your way. Almost fall-like here in South Florida, nice change.

LOL
I heard about your nice cool weather, from other reliable sources.
Still hot and damp here, but right now sky is clear and a nice breeze is moving the trees around.
An inch of rain last night....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting reedzone:


Some of them were very close this year. For example, I had predicted Alex to hit Northern Mexico. It made him mad and he started bashing my "opinion" on an outlier forecast for the storm to head more north. Earl was another successful one of mine, models had it hitting Bermuda, I had it scraping the East Coast. Was pretty close with Nicole's track. I really don't think I'm "wishcasting" anything.


Saw every bit of it. Saw that you got into some argument, as well. You were pretty close on most of those. But, reed, remember, people only remember your mistakes, not your triumphs. That is human nature. It is easier to kick someone when they are down and when they are standing.
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Hi Reed:

What do you see that is in store for CONUS for mid and late October?
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Some seriously gorgeous weather here in SW FL today. Sunny, cooler, dry, just like late autumn or early winter. Tropical weather is totally hosed for now at least around the GOM.
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Quoting pottery:

Hi Gro!
Just woke up??


No,diaper change! Feel good enough to join the crowd. How is it down your way. Almost fall-like here in South Florida, nice change.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy, have you ever seen a La Nina this strong resemble something totally different? This pattern coming up in 8 days or so is featuring a strong sub tropical jet. I wonder what is causing this to happen with such a strong La Nina.


Brother this entire year has been strange. We really did not have a true rainy pattern set up here in Florida as i expected the trough that stayed on the East Coast never allow the Sea Breezes to do what normally would occur with ThunderStorms forming on the EAst coast from the Seabreeze off the Atlantic and those storm marching across the state colliding with an evening GOM on shore breeze creating some big and stronger boomer on the West Coast. That never happened at all. We might just see a quick change over back to El Nino in my opinion.
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Quoting Grothar:


Your predictions aren't silly, they are your opinion of what you see and analyze. Don't let it bother you. People just like being disagreeable to get attention.


Some of them were very close this year. For example, I had predicted Alex to hit Northern Mexico. It made him mad and he started bashing my "opinion" on an outlier forecast for the storm to head more north. Earl was another successful one of mine, models had it hitting Bermuda, I had it scraping the East Coast. Was pretty close with Nicole's track. I really don't think I'm "wishcasting" anything.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya now 156 post in 4 hours! That is some nice traffic. Too Bad what this use to be. Much abuse and harressment has occured on here for no reason and for some time. Watch this comment be removed. Someone copy and paste it fast.....LOL


it's not unusual for this place to slow to a crawl when there's nothing going on. Especially once you walk outside and feel fall in the air. If something develops, it will blow up in here again.
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Quoting Grothar:


If you were a nicer guy, no one would pick on you! How you doing T????

Hi Gro!
Just woke up??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting TampaSpin (#156):


Ya now 156 post in 4 hours! That is some nice traffic. Too Bad what this use to be. Much abuse and harressment has occured on here for no reason and for some time. Watch this comment be removed. Someone copy and paste it fast.....LOL


It's funny to go back and read Dr. Masters' first blogs from early 2005. His second post received three whole comments. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy, have you ever seen a La Nina this strong resemble something totally different? This pattern coming up in 8 days or so is featuring a strong sub tropical jet. I wonder what is causing this to happen with such a strong La Nina.

This is just one of the reasons I am asking for some Learned Analysis on the thing....
The "conditions" are not conforming to Climo. and there must be reasons for this.
I am unable to figure it all out (as I am sure very many people are).
The point is (IMO) that we are seeing Changes and Conditions that are not the norm.
And without wishing to go in the "why and who" direction of apparent Climate Change, I would love to know what are the Climate reasons for the peculiar conditions...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting reedzone:


I get bashed constantly by scottsvb, who is an actual MET.. Though I'm still here, making my silly predictions.


Your predictions aren't silly, they are your opinion of what you see and analyze. Don't let it bother you. People just like being disagreeable to get attention.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Remember i said this pattern is resembling a weak EL-Nino well here you go. It looks as if October has a lot rain in store for FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_336.shtml


My yard thanks you ;-)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya now 156 post in 4 hours! That is some nice traffic. Too Bad what this use to be. Much abuse and harressment has occured on here for no reason and for some time. Watch this comment be removed. Someone copy and paste it fast.....LOL


If you were a nicer guy, no one would pick on you! How you doing T????
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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