97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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270. JLPR2
Quoting Jeff9641:


Most models do seem to be opening the door for a Wilma type scenario next week. Stay tuned and don't get caught holding the bag.


Now that would be amazing, and it would probably come from an area of low pressure that is almost dead and then the next day, bamm! hurricane!

This season is playing with us. LOL
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
269. beell
We are a little early-but as far as climatology, a couple weeks may not be that big a deal.

Surface chart from last year 10/17/2009


Link

200, 500, 850, and 100mb chart - 10/17/2009


Link
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Quoting calusakat:


Lately, there has been some discussion on the internet regarding Gamma radiation and the fact that the heliosphere, which protects us from its deadly effects, has begun distorting and becoming more elongated than previously thought.

As many of you know, the heliosphere is formed due to the solar wind generated by our sun and they have noticed that the heliosphere is shrinking and that it could lead to a serious increase in Gamma radiation reaching our planet. That shrinking is due to the fact that the solar wind has reduced lately, as evidenced by the lack of sunspots, and that is not good. Hint, hint, less activity by the sun equals less energy reaching terra firma. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more, say no more.

Which should go to show all of us that nature has her own way of doing things and we are but a speck in it all.

One other thing to consider is the fact that the maps we view are all flat and that is a false view because the surface of this earth is also spherical and means direction of travel is not always as it would seem logical on a flat map.

Read up on Chaos Theory and see that attempting to predict the weather beyond a few days is something of a parlor game to be played at our leisure and not taken so seriously.

Just came back in and saw the above..
Very interesting concept there.
I will need to read some more on it. (elongated heliosphere)
Thanks...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24001
265. JLPR2
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm talking US landfalls. CSU said the US would be hit hard and infact has been the opposite.


Ah I see, yes it has been a wacky season, it just kind of ignore all predictions and did its thing. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
263. JLPR2
Quoting Jeff9641:


Seems to be other atmospheric patterns setting up to offset La Nina some. You can already notice what has happened to this years hurricane season. La Nina usually means a later end to the rainy season in FL but had a early end instead, Many TC landfall instead hardly any because of dry air and troughs. 12Z GFS shows an active southern branch later this month so hold on best not be duped again by seasonal forecast as the summer forecast was wrong on most accounts.


8 out of 14 made landfall, seems pretty bad to me.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
262. 7544
Quoting Waltanater:
Did anyone notice the NEW area of storms to the west of 97L just under hispanola? It is flaring up pretty well and there seems to be a lot of energy and possible rotation there. This may be the new area of interest forming.


yeap its been doin that all day i ask if this could become 98l latter people said thats part of 97l but i think it will be a differnt system anyone else know about this area tia
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Seems to be other atmospheric patterns setting up to offset La Nina some. You can already notice what has happened to this years hurricane season. La Nina usually means a later end to the rainy season in FL but had a early end instead, Many TC landfall instead hardly any because of dry air and troughs. 12Z GFS shows an active southern branch later this month so hold on best not be duped again by seasonal forecast as the summer forecast was wrong on most accounts.
Thaale actually showed a tendency of hurricane season to produce fewer named storms than usual in October and November during a La Nina. Haven't figured out a synoptic dynamics reason for this yet...head scratchin for a few days, now.

West coast ridging / east coast trough right now doesn't mean a thing for DJF...JMHO.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
258. JLPR2
Quoting Seastep:
Wind really picked up here and pressure down to 1006.5mb


Seems 97L's west side is the one with the unch, that's why I'm all sunny and nice here. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Did anyone notice the NEW area of storms to the west of 97L just under hispanola? It is flaring up pretty well and there seems to be a lot of energy and possible rotation there. This may be the new area of interest forming.
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Quoting oracle28:


Yes, shocking. GFS is the "boy who cried wolf" when it comes to tropical development.


AGREED.wilma...
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Again?


Yes, shocking. GFS is the "boy who cried wolf" when it comes to tropical development.
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And La Nina winter snowfall tends to favor less snow through the middle of the US east of the rockies.



El Nino tends to reduce the snowfall for the far northern US states, with a positive anomaly for Texas and the Appalachians:



(Caveat: Seems that deep south snowfall is infrequent enough that these maps do not generate an anomaly plot. Makes sense, statistically, if the sample size is too small.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Noooooooooo! I don't want a repeat from last winter.
Given the La Nina, most likely will be very different most of the time with a warmer and dryer SE USA. Of course, still could get the odd setup that didn't read about the La Nina tendency on the web...

La Nina patterns:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting sflawavedude:
You're annoying oracle28! Reed is a good poster.
With all the troughs and colder air taking over the us, the season is really wrapping up soon. Probably a system out in atlantic or carrib but none by u.s.


Agreed, on all points :)
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Wind really picked up here and pressure down to 1006.5mb
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You're annoying oracle28! Reed is a good poster.
With all the troughs and colder air taking over the us, the season is really wrapping up soon. Probably a system out in atlantic or carrib but none by u.s.
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245. JLPR2
Well 97L is supposed to be right to the south of PR but....

Yeah, it aint looking so good

Unless there is a center reformation to the east with the convection and vorticity 97l isn't going to do so well in the future. XD
Surface Vort Max is still to the SE of PR


Oh, also the pressure is down to 1006mb here.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Noooooooooo! I don't want a repeat from last winter.


According to Henry Margusity at AccuWeather, this winter will be pretty different from last. Especially in the SouthEast and NorthWest.
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Quoting Waltanater:
...and what was your prediction for Nicole??


he missed it by 300 yards.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummm, it appears you didn't actually read my repsonse to your post. Here it is in its entirety so you don't need to go back and look for it:

"You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but would you mind sharing with the rest of us your forecasting methodology? You may eventually be proven right, but, frankly, climatology doesn't agree with you, and neither do the SSTs in most areas of the MDR."

So, as you can see, I didn't tell you you were wrong; I simply--and, I thought, very politely--asked for you to share with the rest of us here how you came to your conclusion, especially in light of that fact that it doesn't jibe with either most official forecasts or climatology. That's all.

So...what was that you said about reading too much into other people's posts? :-)


I was not referring to you, but other responders, once again, reading too much into my posts.

I did see that only 4 Cat 5's have ever occurred after this date. I thought that was an interesting stat.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Meaning the effects of La Nina in FL really won't amount to much because it is looking like a pattern similar to that of last winter and that is cold air intrusions for the SE US. pattern is favoring a ridge out west and a trough in the east.


Noooooooooo! I don't want a repeat from last winter.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Again?


LOL. It's not as bad as the NOGAPS constantly spinning something up from the Columbia low.
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Quoting Seastep:
12Z GFS spins something up in the W Carib in 7 days:



Again?
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Heavy rain and moderately high seas all day Monday here in Dominica, Lesser Antilles. Check this photo (not sure if I have uploaded it right) of Prince Rupert Bay, Portsmouth, northern Dominica. usually a very calm bay with a wide beach, but today the high swells are from the west and the waves are just pounding in.
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=236185&id=634011370#!/photo.php?pid=5786956&id=634011370&ref= fbx_album
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, good point!
It would need a pretty thorough examination of all of those years to see what conditions applied where, then compare all that to now, to see if it is relevant.

Since we are fast approaching the "GW Comments Season" (tm), (LOL), I would throw-out that we have yet to come to terms with the effects of Climate Change on our weather.
Did the relatively low temp. differential from Equator to Pole have an effect on this season?


Lately, there has been some discussion on the internet regarding Gamma radiation and the fact that the heliosphere, which protects us from its deadly effects, has begun distorting and becoming more elongated than previously thought.

As many of you know, the heliosphere is formed due to the solar wind generated by our sun and they have noticed that the heliosphere is shrinking and that it could lead to a serious increase in Gamma radiation reaching our planet. That shrinking is due to the fact that the solar wind has reduced lately, as evidenced by the lack of sunspots, and that is not good. Hint, hint, less activity by the sun equals less energy reaching terra firma. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more, say no more.

Which should go to show all of us that nature has her own way of doing things and we are but a speck in it all.

One other thing to consider is the fact that the maps we view are all flat and that is a false view because the surface of this earth is also spherical and means direction of travel is not always as it would seem logical on a flat map.

Read up on Chaos Theory and see that attempting to predict the weather beyond a few days is something of a parlor game to be played at our leisure and not taken so seriously.
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233. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
according to the NHC, the low preassure area of 1008mb is passing south of Puerto Rico as we speak and I didn't noticed. Here in Villa Fontana, Carolina, Puerto Rico is very sunny and warm like a typical summer day.


yeah, it's actually sunny, hurray! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Good afternoon, Looks like the NW Carribean will be the place to watch at the end of this week.
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according to the NHC, the low preassure area of 1008mb is passing south of Puerto Rico as we speak and I didn't noticed. Here in Villa Fontana, Carolina, Puerto Rico is very sunny and warm like a typical summer day.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:
My two cents, Reed, while you may go out on a limb or not conform to others, you always back up your forecasts with maps, information, and other "stuff" that says where you're coming from. In that, you do more than most...and are showing the rest of us what went into your forecast thought process.

I don't think we can ask for much more...


Totally agree!
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12Z GFS spins something up in the W Carib in 7 days:

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My two cents, Reed, while you may go out on a limb or not conform to others, you always back up your forecasts with maps, information, and other "stuff" that says where you're coming from. In that, you do more than most...and are showing the rest of us what went into your forecast thought process.

I don't think we can ask for much more...
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
invest 97L will be die before its get to the east coast with wind shear that high.
....yepper tutt should do it in, however a peice of it may go south into the carib and that could be a future threat to develop imo
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Reed, how do you know that he is a real met?? Did he say so or is there real proof of that?


I wonder if the REED model can tell whos a metetorologist and who isn't one.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy, have you ever seen a La Nina this strong resemble something totally different? This pattern coming up in 8 days or so is featuring a strong sub tropical jet. I wonder what is causing this to happen with such a strong La Nina.


It appears the transition is fully underway to a La Nina Modoki(central/west based).
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Quoting reedzone:


I get bashed constantly by scottsvb, who is an actual MET.. Though I'm still here, making my silly predictions.


Reed, how do you know that he is a real met?? Did he say so or is there real proof of that?
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
super wind shear of 90 to 100 knots on the east coast..wow I NEVER SEE A 100 KNOTS WIND SHEAR BEFORE..
.....thats the jetstream jay!!!!,i used to live near foxwoods,everbeen???
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.