97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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sorry new to this...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Looks like some of the dry air from ull is getting into it. it should back off in a bit.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
When will the D minimum get to 97L. It looks like right now from what im seeing on the satellite


Sunset.
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When will the D minimum get to 97L. It looks like right now from what im seeing on the satellite
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting NRAamy:
Cold and rainy here in South Orange County, Calif.


I thought it was always nice In Ca? lol

Thats what the cows say on the milk commercials;)
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Cold and rainy here in South Orange County, Calif.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Quoting sunlinepr:
2010 Storm Paths



If i looked at this 5 years from now i would think that most storms went out to sea which really wasnt the case
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
It looks like 97L will likely not form for another 2 or 3 days
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2010 Storm Paths


Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Afternoon Everyone!

Hammond Municipal Airport
Lat: 30.52 Lon: -90.42 Elev: 43
Last Update on Oct 4, 4:01 pm CDT

Fair

79 °F
(26 °C)
Humidity: 32 %
Wind Speed: NW 13 G 16 MPH
Barometer: 30.18"
Dewpoint: 46 °F (8 °C)
Heat Index: 79 °F (26 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The GFS is picking up on something big near the SE coast...3120 hours out.


It's already got 3 majors on Christmas Day.
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Quoting weatherlover94:


i think the us has been pretty lucky this year once we get past oct with no major landfalls its rare for a hurricane to hit the us in nov


Well.. true. But after Ida, the fact a hurricane was in the Gulf in November in a El Nino year I wouldn't let my guard down.
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Quoting BobinTampa:


it's not unusual for this place to slow to a crawl when there's nothing going on. Especially once you walk outside and feel fall in the air. If something develops, it will blow up in here again.
The GFS is picking up on something big near the SE coast...3120 hours out.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Alex, TD2, Bonnie, TD5, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, and Nicole either hit land or made a direct hit this year.

Basically put.. 69% of all tropical cyclones this year hit land.


i think the us has been pretty lucky this year once we get past oct with no major landfalls its rare for a hurricane to hit the us in nov
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97L is starting to lose some of it's heavy thunderstorms again...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting wilmakat:


AGREED.wilma...


i dont think so i think it will be just like nicole or matthew and go into mexico or hit cuba....they are still forecasting 7 landfalling storms so far none have made landfall in the us i still think at least 1 major will hit the us
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Quoting mrpuertorico:


well it looks like the rain is starting to reach the USVI

Sure, but the real thing is that last night it was there in the same spot.... well maybe this time it will reach PR... Hey, Susan.... what's your opinion???
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Quoting sunlinepr:

Last night I told my wife and daughter, tomorrow it's going to be pouring rain all day..... They woke up laughing at my predictions.... They believe now a local met. called Susan than me....

Sounds like you should have checked with Susan first, LOL.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
Quoting mrpuertorico:
i am going to laugh if the rain dissaptes tonight just before it reaches pr and refires after it passes the mona passage tomorrow afternoon

Last night I told my wife and daughter, tomorrow it's going to be pouring rain all day..... They woke up laughing at my predictions.... They believe now a local met. called Susan than me....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Good afternoon...
Pretty impressive flare-up just south of DomRep, and showers starting to show on shore as well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
i am going to laugh if the rain dissaptes tonight just before it reaches pr and refires after it passes the mona passage tomorrow afternoon
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Quoting sunlinepr:
We're still waiting for announced rain...



well it looks like the rain is starting to reach the USVI
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We're still waiting for announced rain...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Invest97L : NHC-ATCF
3Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.6n61.4w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n61.8w
4Oct 12amGMT - - 17.6n62.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n63.9w
4Oct 06amGMT - - 17.6n64.1w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n65.4w
4Oct 12pmGMT - - 17.7n65.4w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
4Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.7n65.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Coordinates from 12hours ago, before NHC again reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers

Copy&paste 17.6n61.4w-17.6n62.8w, 17.6n62.8w-17.6n64.1w, 17.6n64.1w-17.7n65.4w, 17.7n65.4w-17.7n65.8w, bqn, ngd, gbj into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.
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Good amount of dry air north 25N

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Quoting JLPR2:


8 out of 14 made landfall, seems pretty bad to me.


Alex, TD2, Bonnie, TD5, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, and Nicole either hit land or made a direct hit this year.

Basically put.. 69% of all tropical cyclones this year hit land.
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Well, seems like that trough from the Gom, has taken control of the whole climatic scenario....
Though cloudy, now in Caguas, No rain yet....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9694
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
we have fish storm # 50


This coming from the person who called Nicole a fish storm.

Was Karl a fish too?
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Rain today in Southern Calif.
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286. myway
Quoting Jeff9641:


Most models do seem to be opening the door for a Wilma type scenario next week. Stay tuned and don't get caught holding the bag.


?????????????????????
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I like seflagamma's optimism. The season hopfully is about done. This latest weather is a wonderful change for us in broward. Since Its2Humid most of the time down here. :)
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Quoting seflagamma:
another beautiful day here in SE Fla!
while still hot temps in day time ....upper 80's... we are getting in low 70's at night...

nice change...that is also why I can plant my tomatoes now..they will not polinate unless night temps get below 75 and now we've done that 5 nights in a row.... YIPEE

It's been a wierd year from my plants. I have a few maple trees that are actually changing colors and loosing their leaves (a few months early).
It's a nice sight but I know it isn't good for the tree. I'm guessing it is drought induced.
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we have fish storm # 50
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another beautiful day here in SE Fla!
while still hot temps in day time ....upper 80's... we are getting in low 70's at night...

nice change...that is also why I can plant my tomatoes now..they will not polinate unless night temps get below 75 and now we've done that 5 nights in a row.... YIPEE
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Absolutely gorgeous day here in E C Fla! Loving this weather!
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276. JLPR2
this one is interesting to see, maybe a subtropical system will try to form here



Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting mrpuertorico:
Very very hot here in guaynabo not a drop of rain yet


Isla Verde is also hot & dry, no rain or wind yet.
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Very very hot here in guaynabo not a drop of rain yet
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273. JLPR2
Pressure down from 1006.6mb to 1006mb in Carolina
Looks like we could go below 1006mb tonight.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
I still think area south of Andros Island looks like it spinning up drifting wnw,albeit very small if it does.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm talking US landfalls. CSU said the US would be hit hard and infact has been the opposite.


I am hoping there would be no hits. But there are 2 months left to the season. the jury must remain out for now.
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270. JLPR2
Quoting Jeff9641:


Most models do seem to be opening the door for a Wilma type scenario next week. Stay tuned and don't get caught holding the bag.


Now that would be amazing, and it would probably come from an area of low pressure that is almost dead and then the next day, bamm! hurricane!

This season is playing with us. LOL
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.