97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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770. P451
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
New Blog!
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Quoting P451:
As 97L pulls away from PR - as systems frequently do it will organize more quickly the further it gets away. Just something about that region for organizing disturbances and even modest TSs...they don't seem to take off until they pull a few hundred miles north of PR and then they spin up more quickly.

Also as 97L pulls away and there is separation between it and the apparently organizing area of weather south of the DR - I think we'll see mention of that feature later in the day if it persists.

When 97L turns North and North East that is when you see the real chance for Otto - and if it's already Otto by then maybe we see Hurricane Otto briefly down the line once it's embedded in that SW flow and not fighting it. If there's 30kts of shear provided by the SW flow - and Otto is moving at 20kts - then he only has 10kts of shear and can strengthen.

97L like almost every feature this year has combated an ULL and an associated area of disorganized weather. These two accompanying features have slowed the organization of nearly every single disturbance we've seen form this year.


Otto will most definitely be born...he just likely won't be talked about that much since he's not posing any threat to the CONUS and he'll probably be overshadowed by this new disburbance south of DR if it amounts to anything...and it very well could.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
768. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
...i'll betcha 97l does develop though eventually,my guess is atleast into a td in next 48hrs,the real threat w/be what forms in the nw carib this weekend imo...


When it pulls away from PR and gets heading NE with the SW flow then it will probably get it's act together.

Yep, the western Caribbean is looking ominous. That area in the south west should persist and this area coming in from the south of the DR will link up with that energy. Could have something of a problem down the road here. Don't want to ring the alarm bell just yet but it does look like a problematic situation could unfold.
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New Blog!
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766. P451
12HR WV Imagery, Caribbean Sea, Ending 815AM ET, Courtesy of the U of Hawaii (direct link to imagery)

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

It is very ominous...some of those cloud tops are very very cold. Brrr


Kinda reminds me of this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qql0Yi4DxU&ob=av2e
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting outofdablue:
I live on 3acres, open to fields on three sides backing onto a cypress swamp. NO tall trees anywhere near my house! Lessons learned from hurricaines past. Would an anomometer need to be so high if it has nothing blocking it?

Well then you sure don't have to worry about any trees obstructing anything!

If you can't get up on the roof or just don't feel like going through the trouble, leaving it 5 or 6 feet above the ground if fine. I just always wanted to keep mine 33 feet (not 35 feet by the way...i meant 33 before) above ground because that is the standard, universal height at which wind measurement devices are kept at official NWS recording stations (ie: airports).
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Anything noteworthy coming off the African coast? Maybe? (Ignorant lurker here)
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Go to the Caribbean visible Sat. and animate it. You will think that this is 97L. What is 97L looks like EX Nicole a disorganized train wreck.
...i'll betcha 97l does develop though eventually,my guess is atleast into a td in next 48hrs,the real threat w/be what forms in the nw carib this weekend imo...
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The following table (courtesy of the NOAA) might just hold back the "Season Is Over" crowd for a few more weeks:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14846
Personally I'm more impressed with the area South of DR, than 97L, JMO though.
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Good Morning.......I am also a bit surprised at the 60% from NHC on 97L. Not second guessing them per se as they often see things we don't but I see more negatives in it's path (a ULL, higher sheer, and very dry air to just to it's NW where it is headed) than positives (warm water a good vorticity)at the moment.....I won't be convinced until the ULL moves away from the area or collapses.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11979
Quoting hydrus:
I was watching that a couple nights ago. There was an obvious spin in between Puerto Rico and the Domemican Republic. Someone said it was an upper low within some convection. It looked impressive and said it has a shot at development.

I do recall you bringing it up a while back. You seemed to be on this from the get-go
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Quoting Jeff9641:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.

It is very ominous...some of those cloud tops are very very cold. Brrr
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
756. P451
Quoting Jeff9641:


Go to the Caribbean visible Sat. and animate it. You will think that this is 97L. What is 97L looks like EX Nicole a disorganized train wreck.


Specifics always help.

97L looks like a late season sub-tropical storm cyclogenesis.

The area south of the DR looks tight, compact, rotating, etc. Would expect 98L soon. If it does develop it could really take off down there quickly.

The area east of the Antilles also looks decent. May have three invests before the day is out.

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Quoting Jeff9641:
Here is more proof that something is going on S of DR.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
This is from yesterday's CaribWX discussion.


TROPICS:
--Vigorous TropicalWAVE 21N/62W...10N/70W, with Widespread squalls as detailed in E Caribbean IMAGERY section, moving W-WNW@5-10.
Upper-LO just NW of WAVE has prevented formation of Tropical LO...but as upper-LO moves W-NW faster then WAVE, Tropical LO may
develop near-or-N-of-PuertoRico or DomRep about Wed6-Thu7...if Tropical LO forms, it will bring stronger S-W wind to areas from
Leewards-PuertoRico or DomRep...LO would likely move N-ENE, though not sure how-fast.

--If no Tropical LO forms, WAVE will continue moving W-WNW.

--Regardless of whether the above Tropical LO forms, some part of the above WAVE is likely to move W & merge with pre-existing
"monsoon" flow in West-Central Caribbean (75W-84W, N of 12N), where a Tropical LO may begin forming as early as Fri8, or maybe not
till sometime next week. If a Tropical LO forms in this area, it should move NE-NW, possibly thru areas anywhere from Haiti to the
Yucatan...and beyond that anywhere from N&E of Bahamas to E half of GOMEX.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
Quoting hydrus:
I was watching that a couple nights ago. There was an obvious spin in between Puerto Rico and the Domemican Republic. Someone said it was an upper low within some convection. It looked impressive and said it has a shot at development.


Yes, you did! You were the first one to call this one.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
753. P451


Oct 5, 2010 1200 19N 65.3W 29.71 (1006) 35 (30)
Oct 5, 2010 0600 18.5N 65W 29.71 (1006) 29 (25)
Oct 5, 2010 0000 18.1N 64.6W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 1800 17.8N 64.2W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 1200 17.6N 63.8W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 0600 17.5N 63.4W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 0000 17.5N 62.6W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 1800 17.5N 61.4W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 1200 17.5N 60.2W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 0600 17.5N 58.7W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 0000 17.4N 57.4W 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 1800 17.3N 56.2W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 1200 17.2N 55.1W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 0600 17.1N 54W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 0000 16.8N 52.5W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 1800 16.3N 51W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 1200 15.7N 49.7W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 0600 15.3N 48.2W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 0000 14.8N 46.5W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 1800 14.4N 44.7W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 1200 14.1N 42.8W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 0600 13.9N 40.9W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 0000 13.6N 39W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 29, 2010 1800 13.3N 37.1W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 29, 2010 1200 13N 35.2W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


?

Just sends me to the WU Tropics main page.


Go to the Caribbean visible Sat. and animate it. You will think that this is 97L. What is 97L looks like EX Nicole a disorganized train wreck.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Bobbyweather:
According to ATCF, Nicole's ACE will be 0.1225*7, instead of 0.1225.


Yeah, the ATCF file on Nicole is a little, er, disorganized. They have her down as a 35-knot tropical storm for two TWOs on the 28th, three on the 29th, and two on the 30th, though for the first five of those she was still named TD16 while being classified as a TS.

Hmmm. This looks to be one of those that won't be sorted out until the post-season...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14846
Quoting Jeff9641:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.
I was watching that a couple nights ago. There was an obvious spin in between Puerto Rico and the Domemican Republic. Someone said it was an upper low within some convection. It looked impressive and said it has a shot at development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


?

Just sends me to the WU Tropics main page.
Me too so I was wondering what he was pointing out there.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
748. P451
Quoting Jeff9641:
Here is more proof that something is going on S of DR.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


?

Just sends me to the WU Tropics main page.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. P451
As 97L pulls away from PR - as systems frequently do it will organize more quickly the further it gets away. Just something about that region for organizing disturbances and even modest TSs...they don't seem to take off until they pull a few hundred miles north of PR and then they spin up more quickly.

Also as 97L pulls away and there is separation between it and the apparently organizing area of weather south of the DR - I think we'll see mention of that feature later in the day if it persists.

When 97L turns North and North East that is when you see the real chance for Otto - and if it's already Otto by then maybe we see Hurricane Otto briefly down the line once it's embedded in that SW flow and not fighting it. If there's 30kts of shear provided by the SW flow - and Otto is moving at 20kts - then he only has 10kts of shear and can strengthen.

97L like almost every feature this year has combated an ULL and an associated area of disorganized weather. These two accompanying features have slowed the organization of nearly every single disturbance we've seen form this year.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is more proof that something is going on S of DR.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Jeff9641:
Look at this image below and you tell what is better organized future 98L or present 97L. 97L looks terrible compared to this system S of DR. This system S of DR looks like trouble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
I see the circulation there but to be honest I see no organization with 97L at all but then again I am no met.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Years ago when I had one, I used to prefer Davis Instruments. But I'm sure since then, better stuff has rolled along. For the anomometer, I used to mount mine on the roof from a tripod...approximately 35 feet off the ground. But the damn towering oak trees always overpowered everything around, so I never got a good wind reading, even in a storm.
I live on 3acres, open to fields on three sides backing onto a cypress swamp. NO tall trees anywhere near my house! Lessons learned from hurricaines past. Would an anomometer need to be so high if it has nothing blocking it?
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743. MahFL
Red Alert !
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Quoting Jeff9641:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.


Anyone have a updated vortice map of the area south of the DR? Thx!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting outofdablue:
Mornin Y'all,
Quick Question. I am interested in setting up a personal weather station. Does anybody have information in regards to which is the best and what do I need to look at as far as the best location to install? Thanks in advance. Kelly

Years ago when I had one, I used to prefer Davis Instruments. But I'm sure since then, better stuff has rolled along. For the anomometer, I used to mount mine on the roof from a tripod...approximately 35 feet off the ground. But the damn towering oak trees always overpowered everything around, so I never got a good wind reading, even in a storm.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
739. Relix
And so 97L goes over PR latitude. Heck I am not expecting much rain at all XD! With that I am off, be back in the night to see what the Atlantic has to offer then
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 65.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Winds have been set to 30kt(35mph) and Pressure is 1006 mb

Startin' to finally rev up
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Look at this image below and you tell what is better organized future 98L or present 97L. 97L looks terrible compared to this system S of DR. This system S of DR looks like trouble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
According to ATCF, Nicole's ACE will be 0.1225*7, instead of 0.1225.

Oh, and every invest since 90L(Hermine) has formed into a tropical storm so far. Let's see if 97L does, too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mornin Y'all,
Quick Question. I am interested in setting up a personal weather station. Does anybody have information in regards to which is the best and what do I need to look at as far as the best location to install? Thanks in advance. Kelly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
97L 60%. Wow surprise there. Movement is to the NW so I am certain it won't affect us as bad anymore.

I was a bit surprised too, but SHIPS is calling for a strong cat 1. Not gonna affect CONUS though.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 65.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Winds have been set to 30kt(35mph) and Pressure is 1006 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally, 97L's winds are up to 30 knots--they've been at 25 since last Wednesday--while the pressure is still at 1006mb:

AL, 97, 2010100512, , BEST, 0, 190N, 653W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14846
Quoting Jeff9641:


Recent sat images suggest a nice circulation S of DR and continuing to get better organized. I would also say that this area is much better organized than 97L and I don't care what anybody tells as it is obvious that we should have 98L tagged right now as this could pose a very serious threat to the NW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
Looks better organized to me too but that is JMO.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
Quoting Jeff9641:


Recent sat images suggest a nice circulation S of DR and continuing to get better organized. I would also say that this area is much better organized than 97L and I don't care what anybody tells as it is obvious that we should have 98L tagged right now as this could pose a very serious threat to the NW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

I'll tell you I'm definitely not taking my eye off it anytime soon, regardless of if NHC tags it as 98L.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
Good Morning All,
Looks like 97L decided he wanted to form or get better organized today.
From what im looking at on satellite we should see the nhc bump it up to 70% on the next TWO, although it does depend on what happens before then. I say it will be named Td 17 by late tonight or tomorrow morning
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Quoting kmanislander:
Here is a look at the area South of Hispaniola from the ASCAT pass last night. You can see that it is really the SW end of the overall low known as 97L. It is moving away though and once it seperates itself from the low near PR it will stand a better chance of developing.

Notice also the area in the SW Caribbean that was partially caught by the pass.



Recent sat images suggest a nice circulation S of DR and continuing to get better organized. I would also say that this area is much better organized than 97L and I don't care what anybody tells as it is obvious that we should have 98L tagged right now as this could pose a very serious threat to the NW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

I have been watching that area since yesterday morning and posted about it a few times yesterday and last night. The pressure with it was around 1007 mbs yesterday and 4 of the models break this piece of energy off from 97L and spin it up in the SW Caribbean where there is already some convection associated with vorticity at the 850 mb level.

Something to watch over the next couple of days but in the meantime very nice conditions prevail here after all of the rain.
...any future tc threat to the US would likely come from the nw carib or gom.....agree 100% about a piece of energy splitting going into the nw carib and developing,i was commenting on that yesterday to Jcool......
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Quoting Jeff9641:
I am very surprised by the no mention of the disturbance S of DR. Very surprised as there appears to be a circulation embedded in that convection. I would also say that the area S of DR is better organized than 97L is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Maybe we will see a circle there later on today. I also noticed the spin and the persistent convection.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think that there is a low forming south of Dom Rep. near 15.5N 71.0W andf looks to be moving slowly west







as I get more data in the area I will post it
Alright buddy. Check out kman's earlier posts where he mentions this area.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 month

I checked mine online last night and it was the highest it ever been since I built my house in 98, $485, yet my daily usuage was down, though I was billed for 31 days this month, last month it was 29, something still ain't right. Go figure!!!
I tell you, it is getting beyond ridiculous. I work for government and they cut our salary but the cost of living is going up, up , up.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
I am very surprised by the no mention of the disturbance S of DR. Very surprised as there appears to be a circulation embedded in that convection. I would also say that the area S of DR is better organized than 97L is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
hey guys I think that there is a low forming south of Dom Rep. near 15.5N 71.0W andf looks to be moving slowly west







as I get more data in the area I will post it
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Quoting kmanislander:


$4.84 in town ( self serve ). I guess they add something to truck it the 24 miles your way.

Anyway, time for me to sign off now. Will check in later depending on what's happening in the Caribbean below Hispaniola.

Bye for now.
Bye and looking forward to your expertise later on.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485

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