97L a major rainfall threat; October hurricane outlook; NC rains finally end

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2010

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A large and complex region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday and Sunday. Wind shear is a moderate 5 - 15 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C. However, recent satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal coverage of 97L's heavy thunderstorms have decreased this morning, thanks to some dry air being ingested into the storm. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Saturday through Tuesday, but some of the global computer models depict only moderate amounts of shear for 97L during this period. The NOGAPS model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L, and that model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, Haiti on Wednesday, and Eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, but as of this morning, had not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will slow down to 5 - 10 mph on Sunday, bringing the potential for an extended 3 - 4 day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba next week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

October hurricane outlook
October is here, and it is time to take stock of where we stand and how far we have to go before hurricane season is over. The beginning of October traditionally marks the two-thirds point of hurricane season; approximately one-third of all hurricanes and 28% of named storms occur after October 1. Tropical Storm Nicole brought us up to fourteen named storms for the year, and I expect about 4 - 5 more named storms this year with 2 - 3 of these being hurricanes. That would add up to 18 - 19 named storms for the season, putting 2010 in 3rd - 5th place all-time for most named storms. Since record keeping began in 1851, only four seasons have finished with more than eighteen named storms. These seasons were 2005 (28 named storms, with the 17th named storm, Rita, occurring by October 1); 1933 (21 named storms, with the 18th named storm occurring by October 1;) 1995 (19 named storms, with the 15th named storm, Opal, occurring by October 1;) and 1887 (19 named storms, with the 10th named storm occurring by October 1.) The most likely time to get activity is during the first two weeks of October. There are still two weeks of peak hurricane season left before the activity traditionally begins to decline steeply (Figure 2.) Given the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic this fall, the presence of La Niña in the Eastern Pacific keeping wind shear lower than average, and the observed increase in late-season activity in recent decades, I expect this year's peak portion of hurricane season will last until the end of October. I predict three named storms, two hurricanes, and one intense hurricane will form in the Atlantic this month, with two named storms and one hurricane occurring in November - December, making 2010 as the third busiest Atlantic hurricane season of all-time.


Figure 2. Climatological frequency of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes.

Jamaica cleans up after Nicole
Tropical Storm Nicole lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but the storm's torrential rains hit Jamaica hard. Nicole's rains killed at least six people on the island, and at least thirteens others are missing and feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Wunderground member JamaicaZed wrote me to say his rain gauge in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook caught 17.39" of rain Monday through Thursday, with 11.10" coming on Wednesday.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina ends
The rains have finally ended In North Carolina, where tropical moisture streaming northward in advance of Nicole generated a historic rainfall event this week. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Only minor to moderate flooding is occurring on North Carolina rivers, with just one river, the Northeast Cape Fear River near Chinquapin, expected to experience major flooding. Portlight.org is beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the wake of the flooding, and expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies.

The most remarkable thing about Wilmington's second-wettest month in history is that it came without a hurricane affecting North Carolina. All four of the other top-five wettest Septembers in history were due, in large part, to hurricanes:

#1 23.41 inches 1999 (Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd)
#2 22.72 inches 2010 (plume of tropical moisture in advance of TS Nicole)
#3 20.10 inches 1877 (Hurricane Four)
#4 18.94 inches 1984 (Hurricane Diana)
#5 16.93 inches 1924 (Hurricane Five and Tropical Storm Eight)


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts of fifteen inches (white colors.)

Heavy rains and flooding for New England
The plume of tropical moisture that affected North Carolina is now triggering heavy rains in New England, and flood warnings are posted throughout most of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Delaware, and Vermont this morning. In New York City, heavy rains this morning have overwhelmed one section of the city's subway system, and flooding closed several key road arteries in the city, snarling the morning commute. About two inches of rain have fallen so far this morning in the city. Severe weather is not expected, and no tornadoes were reported yesterday in association with this weather system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather continues in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole will bring isolated heavy rain showers today to Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and northern Honduras. The GFS model predicts this activity will concentrate near Hispaniola over the weekend, then push northwards into the Bahamas, with a subtropical or extratropical storm forming over the Bahamas on Sunday or Monday. This storm could bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. The storm will then move north-northeastwards, parallel to the U.S. East Coast, and not affect any other land areas. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 5 - 7 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding (jdwagon)
Shannon Hills, Ridgeway, VA
Flooding
()

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Quoting MZT:
Earl and Matthew may be gone. Igor definately. I would not rule out the possibility that "six hour Nicole" could be retired either.

Perhaps this season will be a record-breaker in terms of names removed from use.

And yet we had so many in August ready to call the season a dud...


Why Igor?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
"...east of the Lesser Antilles...there is a low chance...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone...as it moves westward..."
"...over the northwestern Caribbean...there is a low chance...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone...as it moves eastward..."

When Lows Collide
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415. beell
GFS and ECMWF model a low embedded in N/S surface troughing left over from Nocole near the mid-Atlantic coast for the start of the workweek. A strong mid-level low centered over western VA/eastern KY bringing another cold front along the east coast Strong surface high pressure (1030mb centered over the Midwest) may rachet up the pressure gradient and onshore winds over coastal NC and VA.High pressure may tend . A bit of a Nor'Easter.

Just a brief (haha) mention in this abbreviated discussion.
Not making too much of it in this short long-term forcst..


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...UNSETTLED WX CONTS INTO (ERY PART OF) XTNDD FCST...AS STM ALOFT CRSS THE MTNS AND REACHES THE CST...AS CSTL LO PRES IS SLO TO DVLP/MVG
NNE. 00Z/01 ECMWF RMNS THE SLOEST OF THE MDLS W/ MVMNT OF SYS OFF
THE CST BY MIDWEEK. XPCTG CLDNS AND CHC RA TO LINGER TUE (ESP
CNTRL/E SXNS)...AND THEN BRING LWRG POPS (W-E) AND DCRSG CLDNS TUE
NGT/WED. RAINFALL NOT LIKELY TO BE AS SGFNT AS WHAT HAS FALLEN THIS
WK OVR THE FA. AFT WED...SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN FM THE W
BRINGING DRIER/MILDER CONDS. TEMPS AVGG SVRL DEGS F BLO NRML (ESP
DYTM) THROUGH WED...THEN RETURNING TO AOA NRML BY THE END OF THE WK...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
This has to be the slowest the blog has been all year


Judging by the TWO, looks like it will get slower too.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
410. IKE
Who said 30%? Down to a 20%'er and a 10%'er moving east.

123 days in the books
60 to go and it's turkey and Christmas time.
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409. MZT
I think we won't see Karl and Alex in 2016.
Earl and Matthew may be gone. Igor definately. I would not rule out the possibility that "six hour Nicole" could be retired either.

Perhaps this season will be a record-breaker in terms of names removed from use.

And yet we had so many in August ready to call the season a dud...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This has to be the slowest the blog has been all year
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Quoting JLPR2:
Someone needs to tell Africa that it is October. XD


yes I've noticed that. A front went through last week and cleaned a couple up but now we have new ones.
They have to get past the Atlantic troughs though which are becoming very powerful. Not only the one off the East Coast but the North Atlantic storms off the Azores should really start to wind up.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
THIS is sweet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
97L rather disorganized right now. Not surprised it was dropped to 20%. Wouldn't be surprised to see it decrease further unless it can begin to organize quite soon, which doesn't look very likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Down to 20%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
403. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
97L still at 30%
How do you know that ? When I go NHC it still has the 2 pm TWO.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8393
400. CybrTeddy
11:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I would have been shocked to have saw anything greater than 30%.


Interesting seeing the TWO's not out yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
399. stormwatcherCI
11:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting PRweathercenter:

when did that come ted ?

1800Z
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8393
398. CybrTeddy
11:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Alex...retired...for sure, yes.

Igor yes, but Earl will still be shy of cat 5 like you said. I can see 150 though.


There was a dropsone reading in Earl that said 177 mph at about 950 mb above the surface. Certainly possible Earl will be bumped up to 150.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
397. markot
11:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
why do some of youkeep saying its over. study the weather patterns. this year is diff. than normal years...ok
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
395. sailingallover
11:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting PRweathercenter:
TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT


NEW WAVE AT 13 N 38 W


That one is the one mentioned in the Blog.. models have developed it all week and take it NNW into the trough out to sea.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
393. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:48 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:
Someone needs to tell Africa that it is October. XD



They may try to develop too...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
392. CybrTeddy
11:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd be very surprised if he wasn't upgraded. I expect Earl to get upgraded a little bit too - He offically had winds of 145 mph - I think it'll be bumped to 150 mph or 155 mph...Especially with his pass near the Bahamas.

I believe Alex will be reitred...Caused $2 billion dollars in damage to Mexico...Very expensive. I highly believe Karl will get retired...4$ billion to Mexico...


I watched the twin bringers of terror in 2007, Igor was more impressive than both of them.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
391. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
97L still at 30%
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
389. JLPR2
11:45 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Someone needs to tell Africa that it is October. XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
388. Neapolitan
11:42 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Perhaps, but I strongly doubt Nicole was our last. The Doc's much more bold than I am even, 4-5 he thinks.


A reminder--and, yes, these are historical analogs, and as they say in Wall Street, past results are no guarantee of future performance--1933, which ended with 20 named storms, saw five more storms after this date. 2010, which famously ended with 27 named storms, saw ten more after this date. Even 2009, which ended with a paltry nine named storms, saw three more after this date...and I find it very difficult to believe this season can't at the very least equal that post-9/30 activity.

Since August 22, this season hasn't had the long stormless periods that even past overactive seasons have had: 2005 went two weeks between numbers #17 and #18, 1995 had several dry spells including one of two weeks between #18 and #19, and 1933--which ended with 21 named storms--went three-and-a-half weeks between #18 and #19.

(1933 saw two storms form on two consecutive days at the end of October, and 1995 saw two storms named on October 7th.)

Still sticking with my 20/12/6 for integrity's sake, though I admit the 12 may be the most unrealistic of those numbers.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13568
387. sailingallover
11:42 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
The MOST AMAZING thing I have seen this hurricane season is that incredibly powerful Front/Trough that is simply cleaning the GOM, stretching down to the YUCATAN,CUBA and driving into the Caribbean on OCTOBER 1st?????
Now thats a record season isn't it?
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
385. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
You think Igor will ever have a shot of getting upgraded (like what they did with Andrew)?


I'd be very surprised if he wasn't upgraded. I expect Earl to get upgraded a little bit too - He offically had winds of 145 mph - I think it'll be bumped to 150 mph or 155 mph...Especially with his pass near the Bahamas.

I believe Alex will be reitred...Caused $2 billion dollars in damage to Mexico...Very expensive. I highly believe Karl will get retired...4$ billion to Mexico...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
384. CybrTeddy
11:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
You think Igor will ever have a shot of getting upgraded (like what they did with Andrew)?


I do, the ADT and SAB for a extended period of time had a 7.0 average (~140 knots) or Category 5. Unlike Hurricane Floyd, which at peak was at 135 knots (155) there was no recon inside Igor when it peaked so they have no real evidence to indicate that Igor did NOT reach Category 5 status. But they have evidence that it did, and the structure continued to improve somewhat once it reached 155 mph.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
383. PRweathercenter
11:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT


NEW WAVE AT 13 N 38 W

Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
381. AstroHurricane001
11:36 PM GMT on October 01, 2010


GFS 18z...named storm landfall on Mauritania?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
380. PRweathercenter
11:36 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wondering if anyone saw this?

when did that come ted ?

Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
379. CaptnDan142
11:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting robert88:
Too much energy and close proximity to get anything to bundle and consolidate into anything other than a TD or weak TS. It's probably why the GFS shows like 50 weak LP's spinning around out there and doing nothing significant.


This may be a bad analogy, but... Look at all the potential in the Carib, it's everywhere. Kinda like a big pot, or a cauldron. When you apply heat to a cauldron of water, it is distributed more or less evenly. But when it starts to boil it doesn't just make one huge bubble. It makes lots of little bubbles all over the place.

All those little spin-ups are not getting anywhere because there is another one nearby and it's trying to grow too and they are stealing energy from one another, the end result is, none of them ever reach their potential.

I warned you, the analogy isn't good, but it's the closest I can seem to get to describing what I am seeing as a case of "so much potential that nothing happens".
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
378. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Alex - 110 mph - 946 mb.

Bonnie - 40 mph - 1005 mb.

Colin - 60 mph - 1005 mb.

Danielle - 135 mph - 942 mb.

Earl - 145 mph - 928 mb.

Fiona - 65 mph - 997 mb.

Gaston - 40 mph - 1005 mb.

Hermine - 65 mph - 991 mb.

Igor - 155 mph - 925 mb.

Julia - 135 mph - 950 mb.

Karl - 120 mph - 957 mb.

Lisa - 80 mph - 987 mb.

Matthew - 60 mph - 998 mb.

Nicole - 40 mph - 996 mb.

Otto - ???????????????????
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
374. CybrTeddy
11:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Season's been active, regardless of what some may say. But it's been as unusual as it has been active. Did we have a storm that didn't pull off a 'first' or 'farthest' or something?


The few storms that didn't become a hurricane out of no where (or the way it felt last month) where pretty unnoticeable.. 'cept Matthew.

This season has also been deadly.
While I'm sure, people will gloat and cheer about how the US has been spared again if October and November come and go without a US hit Mexico's ordeal was worse than 2007.

Alex: 2 billion in damages. I think it was the 8th destructive or so hurricane to ever hit Mexico, remember Mexico isn't as rich as we are.. so the tolls are a lot higher to them.

Karl: 4 billion, only Pauline, Wilma and Gilbert have done worse to Mexico than Karl did.

I think we won't see Karl and Alex in 2016.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
373. weatherwatcher12
11:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
For all with interests in Jamaica:
THE Meteorological Service has extended the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 pm tomorrow.
A Flash Flood Warning means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely.
Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.
A broad area of Low Pressure over the western Caribbean, continues to influence weather conditions across Jamaica. It is causing disorganised showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Radar reports and satellite images indicate that throughout the day scattered light to moderate and at times heavy showers and thunderstorms affected most parishes. The forecast is for showers and thunderstorms to continue affecting the island for at least the next two days.
Due to the soft soil conditions currently being experienced across the country further flash flooding is expected in vulnerable areas.
Gusty wind conditions and above normal wave heights are expected north and south of the island through the weekend. Fishers and other marine interests, are therefore advised not to venture far from port.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
372. NRAamy
11:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Hahahahahahahaha!

Nah, Im not scary....ok, first thing in the AM, with my afro and no makeup....

I even scare myself.....

But you're safe Jerry.... For now.....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
370. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:30 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: June - July

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of June and July 2010. This video features Hurricane Alex, which blew up quickly and torched the Mexico Gulf coast and well inland! Also shown is Tropical Storm Bonnie, which could not quite get it together. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony -"The Planets."



Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: August - September

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? This is one killer video you will want to see again and again. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony -"The Planets."



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------

Oh my god...You have to watch these videos. You just have to
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
369. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:30 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Stay well Flood
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
368. CaptnDan142
11:27 PM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Floodman:


The pleasure was all mine...guess I offended Amy...LOL

As if


LOL!
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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