97L a major rainfall threat; October hurricane outlook; NC rains finally end

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2010

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A large and complex region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday and Sunday. Wind shear is a moderate 5 - 15 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C. However, recent satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal coverage of 97L's heavy thunderstorms have decreased this morning, thanks to some dry air being ingested into the storm. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Saturday through Tuesday, but some of the global computer models depict only moderate amounts of shear for 97L during this period. The NOGAPS model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L, and that model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, Haiti on Wednesday, and Eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, but as of this morning, had not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will slow down to 5 - 10 mph on Sunday, bringing the potential for an extended 3 - 4 day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba next week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

October hurricane outlook
October is here, and it is time to take stock of where we stand and how far we have to go before hurricane season is over. The beginning of October traditionally marks the two-thirds point of hurricane season; approximately one-third of all hurricanes and 28% of named storms occur after October 1. Tropical Storm Nicole brought us up to fourteen named storms for the year, and I expect about 4 - 5 more named storms this year with 2 - 3 of these being hurricanes. That would add up to 18 - 19 named storms for the season, putting 2010 in 3rd - 5th place all-time for most named storms. Since record keeping began in 1851, only four seasons have finished with more than eighteen named storms. These seasons were 2005 (28 named storms, with the 17th named storm, Rita, occurring by October 1); 1933 (21 named storms, with the 18th named storm occurring by October 1;) 1995 (19 named storms, with the 15th named storm, Opal, occurring by October 1;) and 1887 (19 named storms, with the 10th named storm occurring by October 1.) The most likely time to get activity is during the first two weeks of October. There are still two weeks of peak hurricane season left before the activity traditionally begins to decline steeply (Figure 2.) Given the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic this fall, the presence of La Niña in the Eastern Pacific keeping wind shear lower than average, and the observed increase in late-season activity in recent decades, I expect this year's peak portion of hurricane season will last until the end of October. I predict three named storms, two hurricanes, and one intense hurricane will form in the Atlantic this month, with two named storms and one hurricane occurring in November - December, making 2010 as the third busiest Atlantic hurricane season of all-time.


Figure 2. Climatological frequency of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes.

Jamaica cleans up after Nicole
Tropical Storm Nicole lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but the storm's torrential rains hit Jamaica hard. Nicole's rains killed at least six people on the island, and at least thirteens others are missing and feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Wunderground member JamaicaZed wrote me to say his rain gauge in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook caught 17.39" of rain Monday through Thursday, with 11.10" coming on Wednesday.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina ends
The rains have finally ended In North Carolina, where tropical moisture streaming northward in advance of Nicole generated a historic rainfall event this week. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Only minor to moderate flooding is occurring on North Carolina rivers, with just one river, the Northeast Cape Fear River near Chinquapin, expected to experience major flooding. Portlight.org is beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the wake of the flooding, and expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies.

The most remarkable thing about Wilmington's second-wettest month in history is that it came without a hurricane affecting North Carolina. All four of the other top-five wettest Septembers in history were due, in large part, to hurricanes:

#1 23.41 inches 1999 (Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd)
#2 22.72 inches 2010 (plume of tropical moisture in advance of TS Nicole)
#3 20.10 inches 1877 (Hurricane Four)
#4 18.94 inches 1984 (Hurricane Diana)
#5 16.93 inches 1924 (Hurricane Five and Tropical Storm Eight)


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts of fifteen inches (white colors.)

Heavy rains and flooding for New England
The plume of tropical moisture that affected North Carolina is now triggering heavy rains in New England, and flood warnings are posted throughout most of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Delaware, and Vermont this morning. In New York City, heavy rains this morning have overwhelmed one section of the city's subway system, and flooding closed several key road arteries in the city, snarling the morning commute. About two inches of rain have fallen so far this morning in the city. Severe weather is not expected, and no tornadoes were reported yesterday in association with this weather system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather continues in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole will bring isolated heavy rain showers today to Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and northern Honduras. The GFS model predicts this activity will concentrate near Hispaniola over the weekend, then push northwards into the Bahamas, with a subtropical or extratropical storm forming over the Bahamas on Sunday or Monday. This storm could bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. The storm will then move north-northeastwards, parallel to the U.S. East Coast, and not affect any other land areas. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 5 - 7 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding (jdwagon)
Shannon Hills, Ridgeway, VA
Flooding
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I don't see anyone on this blog make lite of anyone being struck by a storm except maybe a handful of younger people who don't know what it like to go through one.Most people if they have money donate to the various charities.Portlight was founded by individuals from this blog and I don't think they have any boundaries.
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667. Relix
97L is awful.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I understand.
But my point is, I dont think it is fair to say that people on this blog dont care what happens in Mexico from Weather systems.


I am a lot more interested and concerned in any hits on Mexico/Cuba/Jamica or any other of the islands then I am in a CONUS hit.
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best friends food alcohol, and whatever else they've got to offer in Jamaica mon'
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Didn't say that. I'm happy that the US hasn't been hit really bad this year.
Well, that's the understood definition of self-centered (your word), that folks would be glad they didn't get hit...

Guess I misunderstood something...
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How about this? For those of us who have been fortunate enough not to have been affected by any tropical (or non-tropical) system at this point in time...we can breathe a sigh of relief....then say our prayers for those affected/damaged/devestated. And, maybe, contribute to Portlight to help those not as fortunate as we are (at this point in time...the season is definitely not over..IMHO). Good compromise????
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I understand.
But my point is, I dont think it is fair to say that people on this blog dont care what happens in Mexico from Weather systems.


Unfortunately, the general public does not view this the same way.
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Quoting pottery:

That's a hard one to predict.
If it was me, I would leave the venue where it is, and know that Weddings are always a Good Party, regardless...

is it in Western Jamaica?


I think, but i'm not positive that it's eastern. your right about the party. with their best friends, food, and alcohol, they'll still have a good time. hopefully one of the 4 days will offer some dry weather.

i suppose if it rains, the resort will just move them inside. i wouldn't change it unless absolute certain a TS or Hurricane, which she won't know closer to the wedding date.
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Since Invest97L is taking the "pause that refreshes" (usually) to significant changes in heading, windspeed , pressure, and/or status by the next report.
1Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.7n49.7w - - knots -- mb -- NHC-ATCF
1Oct 06pmGMT - - 16.3n51.0w - - knots -- mb -- NHC-ATCF
2Oct 12amGMT - - 16.8n52.5w - - knots -- mb -- NHC-ATCF
2Oct 06amGMT - - 17.1n54.0w - - knots -- mb -- NHC-ATCF
2Oct 12pmGMT - - 17.3n55.1w - - knots -- mb -- NHC-ATCF

Copy&paste 15.7n49.7w-16.3n51.0w, 16.3n51.0w-16.8n52.5w, 16.8n52.5w-17.1n54.0w, 17.1n54.0w-17.3n55.1w, iga, myg, pos, 17.3n55.1w-19.36n69.22w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection of the heading averaged over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions.
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Quoting pottery:

Good point...
But I dont think that 'they' are saying that there is no regard for the Mexican problems this year.


Exactly. When you survive driving I-75 through the middle of Atlanta, you're just glad to be in one piece. You know others weren't so lucky. That's just a fact. Like hurricane season, some aren't going to make it through to the other side. It doesn't mean people don't care, it only means they're glad they made it through one more time.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


oh no, I was inferring that they didn't care. Its great news that the United States hasn't gotten hit yet so far, this season has been far from benign.

Yeah, I understand.
But my point is, I dont think it is fair to say that people on this blog dont care what happens in Mexico from Weather systems.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I have no problem with people being happy that their house wasn't erased this year...how could you fault someone for that?

Heck, that's a lot better than the ones that wish for it.


Didn't say that. I'm happy that the US hasn't been hit really bad this year.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Weddings don't know why but the song Why don't we do it in the road popped into my head. I'm waiting for the Neapolitan psycho analysis of this post.

LOL, me too....
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Quoting pottery:

Good point...
But I dont think that 'they' are saying that there is no regard for the Mexican problems this year.


oh no, I was inferring that they didn't care. Its great news that the United States hasn't gotten hit yet so far, this season has been far from benign.
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Weddings don't know why but the song Why don't we do it in the road popped into my head. I'm waiting for the Neapolitan psycho analysis of this post.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
hello. Looks like I missed a lot since Colin. I watched all of it with great interest though, particularly Igor, but didnt feel the need to blog.

i noticed some people talking about how they feel relief about how the Gulf might be spared again this year. I always thought that these comments where pretty self centered and careless. While 'you' and the rest of the AMERICAN Gulf Coast escaped damage this year the MEXICAN Gulf Coast got hit pretty bad.

There's nothing to cheer about there.
I have no problem with people being happy that their house wasn't erased this year...how could you fault someone for that?

Heck, that's a lot better than the ones that wish for it.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
hello. Looks like I missed a lot since Colin. I watched all of it with great interest though, particularly Igor, but didnt feel the need to blog.

i noticed some people talking about how they feel relief about how the Gulf might be spared again this year. I always thought that these comments where pretty self centered and careless. While 'you' and the rest of the AMERICAN Gulf Coast escaped damage this year the MEXICAN Gulf Coast got hit pretty bad.

There's nothing to cheer about there.

Good point...
But I dont think that 'they' are saying that there is no regard for the Mexican problems this year.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
While not very respectable, as a met, I'd say the northern Gulf has escaped this hurricane season with no significant threat.

A late season oddball (see Ida) is always a possibility, but a major is probably out of the question.

And this one cold front is getting reinforced. Today. Which will happen again before the month is out.


The northern Gulf has definitely escaped the season with no major threat this year...and for that we should all be thankful. And you're right that, climatologically-speaking, chances of an intense landfalling hurricane on the south shore are very, very low, although it has happened in the past (Opal, et al.)

Too, looking at the NOLA ten-day, yes, it's going to be in the mid 50s tomorrow night and Monday night. But by next weekend and into the early part of next week, temps rebound into low 80s highs/high 60s lows...hardly the stuff of Jack Frost. And of course there will be reinforcing cold fronts later this month; that's how October is. (I'm in SW Florida, and our first real cold front--that is, temps into the upper 40s or low 50s--seems to come through within a week either side of Halloween year after year.)

I'm simply saying this: while the threat of tropical devastation in the area diminishes with each passing day, that threat is in no way gone...and anyone in a position of meteorological authority who doesn't remind people of that is being irresponsible.
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hello. Looks like I missed a lot since Colin. I watched all of it with great interest though, particularly Igor, but didnt feel the need to blog.

i noticed some people talking about how they feel relief about how the Gulf might be spared again this year. I always thought that these comments where pretty self centered and careless. While 'you' and the rest of the AMERICAN Gulf Coast escaped damage this year the MEXICAN Gulf Coast got hit pretty bad.

There's nothing to cheer about there.
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Quoting truecajun:


good morning everyone. I posted this late last night. I don't think anyone was on. Anyone want to add their 2 cents? I told the bride I'd get her some scoop. All I can say is rain most likely.


That's a hard one to predict.
If it was me, I would leave the venue where it is, and know that Weddings are always a Good Party, regardless...

is it in Western Jamaica?
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Quoting flash2010:
the hurricane season is over for the gulf states...with this powerful cold front coming down today it should be the end to any formation in the gom...well it's wait and see for 2011...what a relief..


IDA 2009 (in November, when the Southern USA was about to enter that extreme cold snap)


WILMA 2005


LILI 2002


Just to name a few.

Then you go to remember, we're not the only place in the universe. The Caribbean could get hit bad in these months. Hopefully Paloma, Omar, Noel, Beta, Mitch and a load more ring a bell.
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646. srada
Good Morning Everyone

Whats up with all these low pressures developing? I do however remember in some past runs the GFS had predicting all these low pressures but they were discounted..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY AS WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP OFF THE GA
COAST. LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
IT STRENGTHENS. PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES. TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM THE EVENT WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH AND SHOULD
NOT EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

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Quoting truecajun:
hi everyone. i have a friend of a friend who is supposed to get married in Jamaica on Oct. 10. How bad do you think the weather will be there then. Hard to say for sure, I know. But most likely, not good. Right? The wedding and reception are planned for the beach. All of the guests are flying down from Indiana. She is wondering if she should move the wedding elsewhere. Poor thing. I don't know what to tell her. The resort did say that they have power.


good morning everyone. I posted this late last night. I don't think anyone was on. Anyone want to add their 2 cents? I told the bride I'd get her some scoop. All I can say is rain most likely.

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Good Morning all....
Overcast, cool(ish), chance of rain, today.
Recovering from a late night, so please, no shouting....
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


This happens last year with one system, I don't remember the name.. Was a wave and in Mona Channel became a Hurricane, we should be safe for this in Puerto Rico. I hope Dominicans and the Bahamas do well.


We didn't have a storm like that last year. Sounds like your talking about Hurricane Noel.
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What a glorious fall day in Florida! Good morning, all.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Hmmm... I can understand a "respectable met" expressing his opinion that he hopes or thinks the northern GOM is safe from any further threats this year--so long as those opinions aren't delivered as concrete fact. There's a lot of time left, and one late September cold front does not an end of season make.

Here's a map showing all the hurricanes or tropical storms generated in or passing through the GOM in the months of October through December over the past 150 years or so (tropical storms are shown in yellow, hurricanes in red, and intense hurricanes in dark red):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


There are, to be sure, fewer storms post-September...but to call it over with 100% certainty at this time is foolishness...
While not very respectable, as a met, I'd say the northern Gulf has escaped this hurricane season with no significant threat.

A late season oddball (see Ida) is always a possibility, but a major is probably out of the question.

And this one cold front is getting reinforced. Today. Which will happen again before the month is out.
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97l looks to be tracking a little wsw today on the loop.That,s why I think heads up Puerto Rico.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I get worried when any female I am related to is nice to me.. it usually means my bank account is gonna take a beating.
Or there is a considerable amount of manual labor in my near future...

G'morn, y'all.
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Quoting flash2010:
the hurricane season is over for the gulf states...with this powerful cold front coming down today it should be the end to any formation in the gom...well it's wait and see for 2011...what a relief..


Hmmm... I can understand a "respectable met" expressing his opinion that he hopes or thinks the northern GOM is safe from any further threats this year--so long as those opinions aren't delivered as concrete fact. There's a lot of time left, and one late September cold front does not an end of season make.

Here's a map showing all the hurricanes or tropical storms generated in or passing through the GOM in the months of October through December over the past 150 years or so (tropical storms are shown in yellow, hurricanes in red, and intense hurricanes in dark red):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


There are, to be sure, fewer storms post-September...but to call it over with 100% certainty at this time is foolishness...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I get worried when any female I am related to is nice to me.. it usually means my bank account is gonna take a beating.


HA!!
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Quoting flash2010:
i have and awsome mother in law we get along so good we go places together all the time...


Actually, I do as well. That is why I can tease about it.
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, never saw that site before. Here is another one related to it. You might find it interesting. Lot of stuff on it. Thanks, I am sure others might like.

Link


This is a good one too, thank you. Going for a walk at the beach, later. Take Care
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


This happens last year with one system, I don't remember the name.. Was a wave and in Mona Channel became a Hurricane, we should be safe for this in Puerto Rico. I hope Dominicans and the Bahamas do well.


Too early to tell. Hurricane Omar was supposed to track between PR and DR but it finally ended up further east through the Northern Leewards and VI.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting Orcasystems:

Maybe because I don't have it?
WUmail me your zip code.

BTW, I have been married 32 years...I am very suspicious of people who are nice to me :)


You should only be worried when your mother-in-law is being nice to you.
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Quoting Eugeniopr:
Link

I think I found out myself. Take a look.


Thanks, never saw that site before. Here is another one related to it. You might find it interesting. Lot of stuff on it. Thanks, I am sure others might like.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Orca, how come you never have my name on your map? I'm one of the few people who are nice to you. LOL.

Maybe because I don't have it?
WUmail me your zip code.

BTW, I have been married 32 years...I am very suspicious of people who are nice to me :)
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


Ignorance is not good, please show me how, is a very interesting site.
Link

I think I found out myself. Take a look.
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Quoting Grothar:


It won't open. Do you know how to post a link on it? If not, I'll tell you how.


Ignorance is not good, please show me how, is a very interesting site.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at the models a little closer, I think what all the models are showing are indeed 97L but on a different path. ECMWF takes the energy that is 97L WSW into the Caribbean THEN it begins to form as it nears Hispaniola. This is also the case with the CMC, GFS, UKMET. Development begins as early as Tuesday.


This happens last year with one system, I don't remember the name.. Was a wave and in Mona Channel became a Hurricane, we should be safe for this in Puerto Rico. I hope Dominicans and the Bahamas do well.
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


No doubt about it. Did you check this site http://weather.rabirubia.com/ ?


It won't open. Do you know how to post a link on it? If not, I'll tell you how.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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