Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1523 - 1473

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Quoting gordydunnot:
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.
Oh my...
Zing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1521. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

Pottery Jr (97L)
- Now has a 3 in one of the Track Intensitys... and 1 & 2's in numerous others.




AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
They still have 97L at 30%????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1519. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Thanks for your good humor. LOL!


And you as well!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1518. NRAamy
Night, doorman...

Don't forget the dress code for tomorrow night....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1516. Grothar
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Night Everyone!!!!!!!!!1


Nite doorman, thanks for the laughs. You did a good deed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1514. Skyepony (Mod)
Most water extracted from underground stocks ends up in the ocean, the researchers note. The team estimates the contribution of groundwater depletion to sea level rise to be 0.8 millimeters per year, which is about a quarter of the current total rate of sea level rise of 3.1 millimeters per year. That's about as much sea-level rise as caused by the melting of glaciers and icecaps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, and it exceeds or falls into the high end of previous estimates of groundwater depletion's contribution to sea level rise, the researchers add.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


As I mentioned many times before, I don't even buy green bananas anymore. Afraid I won't get to eat them.


Thanks for your good humor. LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1512. NRAamy
"young nuts are the best".....

Hmmm... I think I need a mouthful before i can qualify that statement..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
oh no, this is not gonna turn out good for you...


OMG... Did he actually type that???
this is gonna be good :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Night Everyone!!!!!!!!!1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I am now. Needed a good laugh. Thanks.


I am pleased. Long day here, glad to see the blog having some fun. A continued good evening to all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1508. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh oh... Pottery Jr is being bad...

Speak to his Mother.
I am done telling her...

(but what's he up to now??)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1507. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
at his age, every night you are alive is considered a good night


As I mentioned many times before, I don't even buy green bananas anymore. Afraid I won't get to eat them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update

Pottery Jr (97L)
- Now has a 3 in one of the Track Intensitys... and 1 & 2's in numerous others.




AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Doorman... I told you I ain't streaking in here by myself.....



I'm not bashfull, been busted wit a naked swirl before. Thank god I knew the cop!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1504. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No one can fault you for that. We all have our preferences. Hope you're having a nice night, Gro.


I am now. Needed a good laugh. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Missed this one in the Melee..
You are absolutely correct, of course.
But the quality of the coconut water is very important.
Young nuts are the best.
oh no, this is not gonna turn out good for you...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys and gals....I am amazed at how well the models predicted this whole situation WELL in advance. What was it?, a week and 1/2 ago the models where predicting the development of a tropical low in the western carib, with paths near south florida, and a north/south linear feed of moisture with low pressure systems training rains up the east coast.
Beautiful, and if 97 develops i can only hope for 1/2 of that level of accuracy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
at his age, every night you are alive is considered a good night


I will defer. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1500. pottery
Quoting kimoskee:


No, no, no... rum and coconut water. Isn't there a calypso song about it?

Missed this one in the Melee..
You are absolutely correct, of course.
But the quality of the coconut water is very important.
Young nuts are the best.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Oh oh... Pottery Jr is being bad...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No one can fault you for that. We all have our preferences. Hope you're having a nice night,Gro.
at his age, every night you are alive is considered a good night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1497. NRAamy
You first, doorman...my momma didn't raise no fools...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1496. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
i thought he was still working on the shuffle


That I do quite well. Every morning until about 10.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Ruby Keeler thought I was great, and that is Jitterbug, by the way. What do you have on your mind, rum and tab?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1494. Skyepony (Mod)
Jim Hansen getting arrested along with 100 others at the Mountain Top Removal protest Monday in Washington DC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I like the song, but Nena's German is just awful to my ear. They speak differently in that part of Germany.


No one can fault you for that. We all have our preferences. Hope you're having a nice night, Gro.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Maybe so.
But I hear he does great Limbo...
i thought he was still working on the shuffle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1491. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
i wasn't making fun of it or criticizing him...this time :)


Like the disclaimer at the end....you're too funny hunker.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1490. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar still has problems doing the Jiggerbug!

Maybe so.
But I hear he does great Limbo...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1489. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar still has problems doing the Jiggerbug!


Hey, Ruby Keeler thought I was great, and that is Jitterbug, by the way. What do you have on your mind, rum and tab?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Doorman... I told you I ain't streaking in here by myself.....



Well on your marks!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1487. NRAamy
Doorman... I told you I ain't streaking in here by myself.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1486. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


With all due respect, that was most recently posted by GrillinintheEye. I know this for a pure D, fact.


I like the song, but Nena's German is just awful to my ear. They speak differently in that part of Germany.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Just do the hustle, Groth....


Grothar still has problems doing the Jiggerbug!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Play nice!! LOL
i wasn't making fun of it or criticizing him...this time :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1483. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ohhhh I want I want....


Does anyone live close to here???

Pusser's West Indies Ltd
Lower Estate, Road Town, Tortola
British Virgin Islands

I am sure that lots of people live close to there.
But they dont discuss weather at midnight.
They dont even blog.
I wonder why???
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1482. Grothar
Quoting NRAamy:
Just do the hustle, Groth....


Are you kidding, Amy, one bump and there goes my good hip.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


That is the only one. I mean that all the other sites, like raleighwx and the spaghetti string models have not posted one model since it was initialized this morning. The GFDL and GFS are usually right on them. Maybe I missed during leather working shop today.


Oh Grothar...You've got mail! Let me know if you got it, my first time :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys and gals....I am amazed at how well the models predicted this whole situation WELL in advance. What was it?, a week and 1/2 ago the models where predicting the development of a tropical low in the western carib, with paths near south florida, and a north/south linear feed of moisture with low pressure systems training rains up the east coast.
Beautiful, and if 97 develops i can only hope for 1/2 of that level of accuracy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Just do the hustle, Groth....


There she is, I have been waiting for you to streak the blog all night lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1477. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
im sure the reed model is available somewhere but we can probably already guess how that one ends


Play nice!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1476. NRAamy
Just do the hustle, Groth....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do I have to repost 99 luft ballons?


With all due respect, that was most recently posted by GrillinintheEye. I know this for a pure D, fact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1473. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Think it was AHHHHHfermative

Actually, AHHHHfermented would be more in context.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307

Viewing: 1523 - 1473

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
68 °F
Overcast