Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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Quoting JLPR2:
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link


Got it.....brought the average down though!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi traumaboyy!
Got my caffeine level in therapeutic range - I'm good for a couple of hours.
BTW - going to Dega in Oct?
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1621. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

Where do you put it?


There where the deepest convection is developing, it's a little to the NE of the last center adjustment, but right with the 850mb vort max.
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Quoting beell:
Not looking too tropical tonight.



Loop


The trough still amazes me, ATM.

So does this at the dawn of October, very fall like in SEFL.
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1619. geepy86
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who is old enough...or wise...to remember this song:

god, I'm getting old.
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1618. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:
Good morning/Evening night shift....Hot Cofee and Cheese danish ready!!


Any prune danish there?? LOL
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1617. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Keep going! I am a little slow on the uptake. If it is the flower on your post, it is the most exotic image I have seen since Betty White was in a bathing suit.


ha!
For some reason an image of Betty White currently came to my mind and that and a bathing suit... well... :S

Actually I'm pretty active on Wunderphotos, this blog isn't the only thing keeping me here. XD
So far 171 photos uploaded in 3months. :D
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Good morning/Evening night shift....Hot Cofee and Cheese danish ready!!
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1615. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:
To me it seems 97L has decided where it wants to be.

Where do you put it?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting Bielle:


I gather this is a special rum not available where you live.


Actually I am going to go and check our specialty store. They have a special Canadian Navy 100th anniversary special edition... I want one :) BTW, the rum is one of a kind 42% or 84 proof :)


Link
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1612. JLPR2
To me it seems 97L has decided where it wants to be.
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Who is old enough...or wise...to remember this song:

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1610. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


Approvers Choice :]


Keep going! I am a little slow on the uptake. If it is the flower on your post, it is the most exotic image I have seen since Betty White was in a bathing suit.
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Quoting pottery:

I have to tell you...
they ship full bottles.
It's the Delivery Guy at your end who made up the empty bottle story.
And you fell for that????


Nice, LOL. Have a good night, all.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Well you can't live in S. Fl without AC.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
Orca that cereal sounds magically delicious.
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1605. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum?

I have to tell you...
they ship full bottles.
It's the Delivery Guy at your end who made up the empty bottle story.
And you fell for that????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
1604. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


We will if you explain what AC means.


Approvers Choice :]
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1603. Bielle
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum?


I gather this is a special rum not available where you live.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1602. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

Not sure I like the look of that...
And I promise I wont change my name.
I am much too arrogant for that..........


Good... good... I dont think I couldn't handle another blogger like that :\

LOL!
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1601. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link


We will if you explain what AC means.
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Quoting zoomiami:


lmao


Thank god Zoo is here.. maybe sanity will prevail?
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1599. beell
Not looking too tropical tonight.



Loop
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1598. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:
Also another little thing, sorry for interrupting your awesome self conversation Pottery!

The new area of developing convection is pretty much aligned with the 850mb vort.



Carry on Poterry, but dont go around making handles like ''DudePoteryisCool! XD

Not sure I like the look of that...
And I promise I wont change my name.
I am much too arrogant for that..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting pottery:

Oh Lord, save me from this Woman.....
Red Bulls
Brown Cows
Purple Hippos....
We are all DOOM.......


lmao
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1596. xcool


south Haiti
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1595. JLPR2
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1594. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Oh Lord, save me from this Woman.....
Red Bulls
Brown Cows
Purple Hippos....
We are all DOOM.......


Sounds like some barn yard cereal.. Lucky Farms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bielle:


ORCA: I'll be there in December. Does that help?


Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1590. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Pott....it seems all my harping on my non-husband has turned his mind to glue....

Get a hold of yourself, man! Here, try this redbull....

Oh Lord, save me from this Woman.....
Red Bulls
Brown Cows
Purple Hippos....
We are all DOOM.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
1589. JLPR2
Also another little thing, sorry for interrupting your awesome self conversation Pottery!

The new area of developing convection is pretty much aligned with the 850mb vort.



Carry on Poterry, but dont go around making handles like ''DudePoteryisCool! XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models.


yeah... those 3's do give it a little level of respect don't they
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1587. Bielle
Quoting pottery:

I am sure that lots of people live close to there.
But they dont discuss weather at midnight.
They dont even blog.
I wonder why???


ORCA: I'll be there in December. Does that help?
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Quoting pottery:

Dont be so Aggressive! Are you a Troll?
October starts with O
Orca starts with O
Otto starts with O
Trouble starts with Oh ****

see??

hey...
O I get it
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1585. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:
97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models.

Looks like a Scorpion to me. On the Rainbow..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
1584. NRAamy
Pott....it seems all my harping on my non-husband has turned his mind to glue....

Get a hold of yourself, man! Here, try this redbull....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1583. Grothar
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Night All!



Not GT. Don't like that map though. Too close to home. You know how long it takes us to evacutate on walkers.
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Good Night All!

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97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models.
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1579. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Yeah?
So What?

Dont be so Aggressive! Are you a Troll?
October starts with O
Orca starts with O
Otto starts with O
Trouble starts with Oh ****

see??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Critics agree this is best blog in America.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1577. NRAamy
Hahahahahahahaha! Love it, Orca!!

:)
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Quoting pottery:

Trying it's best!
I hope it goes POOF!


Agreed!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting Grothar:


Where did you ever find that? She was one beautiful woman.


No argument there at all. YouTube. It's a wonderful resource. I am sincerely gratified that you enjoyed it.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1574. pottery
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good evening Pottery, Hope the weather's not treating you poorly. Looks like the area we spoke about, is trying hard.

Trying it's best!
I hope it goes POOF!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.