Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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1673. Bielle
Quoting NRAamy:
Trauma...I got into this nut conversation late....the menfolk started it....
I figured as the only chick in here, my take on nuts would be more relevant....

Young nuts are fresher, but the taste doesn't last as long....

So, if you have young nuts, it's best to add cheese....

If "only chick" = only young 'un, then perhaps yes; if "only chick" = only female, then no.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


North Park top of the hill...have only missed a few races in last ten years up there. Free camping and the best of the partying....if that is what you like to do. If you go to bed at 9pm would not recommend North Park!!

Yeh, I've heard some great stories about that area.
With work/time conflicts, we've only been able to go up ultra-early Sun AM for the cup race and then head back home in the PM.
Someday maybe we can do the whole weekend. It's good to have goals!
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1671. geepy86
hey NRA your not the only chick.
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1670. xcool
jasoniscoolman2011xz .ouch lots of rain..
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1668. NRAamy
Trauma...I got into this nut conversation late....the menfolk started it....
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1667. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:


ROFLMFAO.....did you actually ask if we had ever had ......lol.....CHEESY NUTS??

They sound so,....unclean
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
1665. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


how bout some wasabi nuts or peas??

MMMMMM
I love you
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1664. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL....."Its not the years.....it's the miles!"


If that were true, I am well beyond my expiration date, under both categories.
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Quoting NRAamy:
California girls prefer nuts with some bite to them....


how bout some wasabi nuts or peas??

MMMMMM
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Quoting JLPR2:


XD I'll get you for that, some laxative on your English muffing and coffee should do it. XD LOL!



Thank you, it is a little hobby of mine.


what little hobby are you talking about??
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1661. xcool
jasoniscoolman2011xz: hey
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Quoting Grothar:


Spit soda over the keyboard and the funny thing is I wasn't even drinking at the time. You are all on a roll tonight. One thing about Amy, she brings out the best in people. I guess everything has an expiration date. What scares me, is when it reads "best if used before August 10, 1998.


LOL....."Its not the years.....it's the miles!"
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1658. NRAamy
.
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1657. geepy86
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
Tornado warning for east haven unit 1:15am..wow..i am dancing now.
why?
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1656. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

There are some Cashews around here somewhere...


Walnuts are the best, they are easy to crack.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Ever have cheesy nuts?
Damn, where's Orca with the smiley face cartoon......


ROFLMFAO.....did you actually ask if we had ever had ......lol.....CHEESY NUTS??
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1654. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:


Amy I am looking and I think the date has been worn off or something......can't determine age :-)


Spit soda over the keyboard and the funny thing is I wasn't even drinking at the time. You are all on a roll tonight. One thing about Amy, she brings out the best in people. I guess everything has an expiration date. What scares me, is when it reads "best if used before August 10, 1998.
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1653. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
You started the young nut controversy, Pott...

I'm still hungry.....


There are some Cashews around here somewhere...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
1652. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


Got it.....brought the average down though!! :)


XD I'll get you for that, some laxative on your English muffing and coffee should do it. XD LOL!

Quoting Grothar:


In all sincerety, If you did those photos, it is the work of a true artist. When I worked in Washington, DC. I would spend as much time at the Botanic Gardens at Garfield Center and at the Washington Botanical Gardens at the capital. Great work.


Thank you, it is a little hobby of mine.
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Quoting NRAamy:
You started the young nut controversy, Pott...

I'm still hungry.....



Never been/Not going....but you gotta love those California Girls!!!
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1649. geepy86
Quoting NRAamy:
Ever have cheesy nuts?
Damn, where's Orca with the smiley face cartoon......

Those don't sound real tasty.
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Young nut, get outta my mind:

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Quoting emeraldcoast:
Do yall usually do the infield?
We haven't ever been able to work that out.


North Park top of the hill...have only missed a few races in last ten years up there. Free camping and the best of the partying....if that is what you like to do. If you go to bed at 9pm would not recommend North Park!!
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1645. geepy86
You just can't have one pistachio.
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1644. xcool




sw of jamaica
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1643. NRAamy
.
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1642. NRAamy
Hahahahahahahaha!

;)

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1641. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Hey Trauma!

You got some young nuts? They've been on everyone's minds tonite.

"young nuts, with time, get old"
Ancient Arabic saying...
(actually, I just made that up, but it is possibly factual. I would'nt know, of course)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Do yall usually do the infield?
We haven't ever been able to work that out.
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Quoting Grothar:


That'll work.


Dam right it will!!
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1638. Bielle
Quoting geepy86:
god, I'm getting old.


That's the same year I got a divorce and my MBA. Now that's old.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Hey Trauma!

You got some young nuts? They've been on everyone's minds tonite.


Amy I am looking and I think the date has been worn off or something......can't determine age :-)
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1636. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:


naa but could probably rustle up a brown bomber for you!!


That'll work.
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1635. Bielle
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually I am going to go and check our specialty store. They have a special Canadian Navy 100th anniversary special edition... I want one :) BTW, the rum is one of a kind 42% or 84 proof :)


Link


We have Pusser's in Canada, but not that decanter:
PUSSER'S BRITISH NAVY RUM
LCBO 136754 | 750 mL bottle

Price: $ 35.85
Spirits, Rum
42.0% Alcohol/Vol.

Made in: Barbados, Barbados
By: Pusser'S Rum Ltd.
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1634. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


There where the deepest convection is developing, it's a little to the NE of the last center adjustment, but right with the 850mb vort max.


In all sincerety, If you did those photos, it is the work of a true artist. When I worked in Washington, DC. I would spend as much time at the Botanic Gardens at Garfield Center and at the Washington Botanical Gardens at the capital. Great work.
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Quoting pottery:

If I drank a coffee now, there is no telling what will happen next.......
(and as I typed that, a Screech Owl Scheeched just outside the window and nearly caused me to expire entirely) Whew...


ROFL.....I love old people!!!!
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1631. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:


There where the deepest convection is developing, it's a little to the NE of the last center adjustment, but right with the 850mb vort max.

More NE??
May have to change the tracks there Orca..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting emeraldcoast:
Hi traumaboyy!
Got my caffeine level in therapeutic range - I'm good for a couple of hours.
BTW - going to Dega in Oct?


We are working on that right now as a matter of fact!!

Seems like all my bunch has a conflict this time so it is not looking good but will just have to have a Dega party at my place!!
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1628. NRAamy
.
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1627. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:
Good morning/Evening night shift....Hot Cofee and Cheese danish ready!!

If I drank a coffee now, there is no telling what will happen next.......
(and as I typed that, a Screech Owl Scheeched just outside the window and nearly caused me to expire entirely) Whew...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting geepy86:
god, I'm getting old.


That song is considered a "cult" classic. Sadly, she passed away a few years later.
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Quoting Grothar:


Any prune danish there?? LOL


naa but could probably rustle up a brown bomber for you!!
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Hmm 940 pm... time to kick the mutts out to do their thing... and then crawl into bed.. being an old man.. I go to bed at 10 :)

Knowing the time zones... I have no idea what some of you are doing up so late.. or in some cases..so early.

Complete Update, showing Pottery Jr having some bad ideas for the future.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting JLPR2:
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link


Got it.....brought the average down though!! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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