Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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1723. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?


You have "In The Wee Small Hours of the Morning", from Sleepless in Seattle. appropriate for this time, since most will be here for the TWO at 2.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Hey I'm out to. Jed just trying to tell you. Granny.s getting upset.
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1720. geepy86
What is a two?
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Quoting pottery:

Me too!
It was fun. Thanks for the Laffs, you all.

Some intriguing stuff to consider in the daylight, with this storm out there.
Right now, sky is clear and bright.
I would have lost $$$ had I bet on that, considering what the thing looked like earlier today (yesterday, actually)


Hope it stays that way for ya man!!

Night!!
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1718. Grothar
Quoting Bordonaro:

There are 3 tropical waves combining into one system, that is an awesome question!!


I guess Fujiwhara never saw this scenario, they may have to name this the Fuji-fujiwhara.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Grothar:


There is also a TWO at 5 another TWO at 8. I am so confused.


To say the least!
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1716. geepy86
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?
I was a seager fan.
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1715. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


There is also a TWO at 5 another TWO at 8. I am so confused.

The TWO @ 2 is the REAL one.
The others are Imposters.

Night all...........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24869
1714. Bielle
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?


Stones: I Can't Get No
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1712. geepy86
good times , see ya'll later.
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Quoting geepy86:
sorry, kinda got my own. Maybe next time?
On a weather note I got 5.5 inches of rain from nicole.


That's a lot of water!!

Drink one for me....at work....darn rules :(
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Warning blog police have arrived from an orderly line an evacuate. It's for your own safety.



hey man, you're a real mature feller now aren't ya?
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1708. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Crap….I’ll be up till the 2:00 am. TWO.


There is also a TWO at 5 another TWO at 8. I am so confused.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting NRAamy:
Sorry Jed.....

:(

I'll say goodnight....



Sorry to be the kill joy, but somebody has to stand for whats right!

I'm not here to hate, correction is care, not hate folks!
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1706. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Sorry Jed.....

:(

I'll say goodnight....

Me too!
It was fun. Thanks for the Laffs, you all.

Some intriguing stuff to consider in the daylight, with this storm out there.
Right now, sky is clear and bright.
I would have lost $$$ had I bet on that, considering what the thing looked like earlier today (yesterday, actually)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24869
1705. xcool
jasoniscoolman2011xz you better run Tornado ..
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1704. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


Whoa!!....like three of em.....Drinks are on ME!!
sorry, kinda got my own. Maybe next time?
On a weather note I got 5.5 inches of rain from nicole.
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1703. Bielle
Quoting geepy86:
Didn't see the post.


#1638
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Quoting geepy86:
darn


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?
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1700. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1699. geepy86
I guess we can babble to jason.
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Quoting pottery:
the place is positively swarming with Babes, Trauma!


Whoa!!....like three of em.....Drinks are on ME!!
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1697. geepy86
darn
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Crap….I’ll be up till the 2:00 am. TWO.
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1695. NRAamy
Sorry Jed.....

:(

I'll say goodnight....
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Warning blog police have arrived from an orderly line an evacuate. It's for your own safety.
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1693. geepy86
Quoting Bielle:


And, if you read my earlier post about the year 1978, then I doubt you are this old, either.
Didn't see the post.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
WHERE IS THIS CRAZY CENTER TO Disturbance 97L

There are 3 tropical waves combining into one system, that is an awesome question!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting emeraldcoast:

Yeh, I've heard some great stories about that area.
With work/time conflicts, we've only been able to go up ultra-early Sun AM for the cup race and then head back home in the PM.
Someday maybe we can do the whole weekend. It's good to have goals!


Usually get there tuesday morning when the campground opens and stay till Monday. My crew consists of about 20 people normally and I am affectionately called the "Mayor" of Hell Hill.....but seems everyone busy this time around so probably be April before we can hit it again :-(
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1689. Bielle
Quoting NRAamy:
Bielle, sorry...

And I'm not that young...

:)


And, if you read my earlier post about the year 1978, then I doubt you are this old, either.
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hey guys just cause you won't get banned for innuendos and metaphors doesn't mean they aren't just as gross and inappropriate...
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1686. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well that's what happen.....hang on....better just keep that one to myself!!!
dude, don't clean it on my account. I've been around. LOL
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1685. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well that's what happen.....hang on....better just keep that one to myself!!!

Good plan....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24869
Good evening/morning I put together a quick update on Ex-Nicole, if you want to take a look and leave a comment, the link is below:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1683. pottery
the place is positively swarming with Babes, Trauma!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24869
1682. NRAamy
Bielle, sorry...

And I'm not that young...

:)
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Quoting pottery:

They sound so,....unclean


Well that's what happen.....hang on....better just keep that one to myself!!!
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1680. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:


I hope yer a girl!!

heheheheh
I love this place...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24869
Right geepy and amy - I'm a chick - yikes I'm too old to be a chick. More like a hen. Yikes, that's even worse.
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Quoting NRAamy:
California girls prefer nuts with some bite to them....


:0 seriously....?
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1677. NRAamy
Sorry geepy....
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1676. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


I hope yer a girl!!
yes, but you said wasabi nuts first.
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1675. geepy86
Quoting Bielle:

If "only chick" = only young 'un, then perhaps yes; if "only chick" = only female, then no.
same here.
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Quoting geepy86:
I love you


I hope yer a girl!!
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1673. Bielle
Quoting NRAamy:
Trauma...I got into this nut conversation late....the menfolk started it....
I figured as the only chick in here, my take on nuts would be more relevant....

Young nuts are fresher, but the taste doesn't last as long....

So, if you have young nuts, it's best to add cheese....

If "only chick" = only young 'un, then perhaps yes; if "only chick" = only female, then no.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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