Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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Quoting Levi32:
Weeeee>


LOL I'm glad we're not the only one's getting some action! Being from the NW we've had plenty of "winter storms" that were every bit as bad as a hurricane!

Stay safe man!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I don't understand why some always have to talk about the hype or the media when it comes to these systems.

I also don't understand why, if the NHC makes people aware of something that could occur; and it doesn't; that they hyped the event.

That kind of mentality will really effect your stance on reality.
You can say that again! In 2005 When we were getting a Hurricane a month starting in June, by October I was over the "hype" and stopped listening to my detriment. If I had listened to the Wilma forecast I would have known about the storm surge we got and would have been better prepared. So I have learned my lesson there. No matter how weather weary I am, I must listen to the forecasts.
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Your turn, Levi. :)
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Quoting Levi32:
Weeeee....

WWAK81PAFC_AKZ121
-----------------
AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-011400-

...A POWERFUL FALL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL
THEN TRACK TO JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY.

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS.
WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. OVER
LAND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION FROM CORDOVA TO WHITTIER AS WELL AS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY
AND TURNAGAIN ARM. AS THE STORM EXITS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY
GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT LOTS OF WARM AND MOIST AIR.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THIS POWERFUL
FALL STORM.

$$
FPAK51PAFC_AKZ121


Jeje... almost that time of the year.
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Quoting largeeyes:
Five people are confirmed dead after a weather-related accident in Washington County.

We are told the crash happened on U.S. 64, west of Creswell. The Highway Patrol says it happened at exit 554.

Killed was a family from Atlanta, Georgia. Troopers say a father, mother, an infant and twins were killed in the crash.

Witnesses told the Highway Patrol that the Jeep lost control on the highway, went off the right side of the road. The vehicle then ran down a small hill, hit an embankment and flipped over into a canal.

Troopers say the five appeared to have drowned and that weather is a factor in the crash


Horrible... omg, that's just horrible to read. Very similar to my family... will send email to wife at work to remind her to be careful coming home from work.
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Yes sir that's a nasty trough.

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Quoting toddbizz:


Just making a general observation read lots of posts actually...and analyzed the data...just seemed a lot of hyping going on is all...no need to jump all over me...
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Weeeee....

WWAK81PAFC_AKZ121
-----------------
AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-011400-

...A POWERFUL FALL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL
THEN TRACK TO JUST NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY.

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS.
WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. OVER
LAND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION FROM CORDOVA TO WHITTIER AS WELL AS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY
AND TURNAGAIN ARM. AS THE STORM EXITS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY
GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT LOTS OF WARM AND MOIST AIR.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THIS POWERFUL
FALL STORM.

$$
FPAK51PAFC_AKZ121
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bayside:


Looks like hopefully the worst is over for us now. The next bad bands seem like they should track more to the west from you and I. That one this morning that ran right over the top of us and straight up the Chesapeake Bay was an awful lot of rain...


roger that, Bayside. I am sure hoping that next round stays west. Of course, that probably means the Blackwater will flood Suffolk in a day or so ....
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Quoting WatchILM:
The rain has started back up here in Wilmington. This is getting ridiculous - I could canoe through the yard right now.

I was awakened at 6:10 this morning to the pine tree slamming into the house 8 feet away from where I was sleeping. A bit surreal. Some windy bands swept across our neighborhood downing several loblollies. Fortunately, it wasn't raining and I got plastic sheeting up over the hole before it started again around 8. Note to self to not expect duct tape, even the really good stuff, to adhere to house siding. The tree is actually helping to hold the sheeting in place. Nobody hurt, so counting blessings.


A pine uprooted? Now that some saturated ground. It's usually the oaks and laurels that get uprooted. The pines snap off.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Will - if it gets too bad I'll call the guys at ACU4 to send one of their LCACs up river for me, LOL! Had a ride in one of those lovelies a few months back - 70mph plus out on the Bay was awesome!


yea you can go about anywhere you want to go with those. But dont stand on the deck lol
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the only way 97L could be trouble in the GOM is if the GOM water vapor imagery is more impressive. not sure how moist it is looking 7-10 days down the road but if it stays as dry as it is going to the next week, the storm will have it's work cut out for itself. shear of course is a whole other issue
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Quoting kwgirl:
Thanks for the info. That's more than I get out of her.


Any time. I'm probably 6-8 miles north and a bit east of Plaza Trail - so mileage may vary, LOL.
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I don't understand why some always have to talk about the hype or the media when it comes to these systems.

I also don't understand why, if the NHC makes people aware of something that could occur; and it doesn't; that they hyped the event.

That kind of mentality will really effect your stance on reality.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have an Update on Invest 97L with full garphics and also pulled out my Severe Weather Blog with a Flood map graphics within for the Carolina's areas that need it. Hope this helps some.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting gordydunnot:
One thing for sure about nature lately she has been having a lot of 100 and 500 year rain events lately.


It's global warming.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Little flooding this am - not too bad in VaBeach at the moment even though it is high tide. Nice little dry slot right now letting things drain off and a stiff breeze out of the south. Norfolk as always - a mess and a half.


Looks like hopefully the worst is over for us now. The next bad bands seem like they should track more to the west from you and I. That one this morning that ran right over the top of us and straight up the Chesapeake Bay was an awful lot of rain...
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery looking at the 1km blowup of pg151L is your house under the North or south towering cumulus cloud, if your still here.

Under the southern one.
I am halfway down the west coast, 4 miles inland.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23910
The rain has started back up here in Wilmington. This is getting ridiculous - I could canoe through the yard right now.

I was awakened at 6:10 this morning to the pine tree slamming into the house 8 feet away from where I was sleeping. A bit surreal. Some windy bands swept across our neighborhood downing several loblollies. Fortunately, it wasn't raining and I got plastic sheeting up over the hole before it started again around 8. Note to self to not expect duct tape, even the really good stuff, to adhere to house siding. The tree is actually helping to hold the sheeting in place. Nobody hurt, so counting blessings.
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Quoting will40:





lololol you gonna need one of those amphibious craft


Will - if it gets too bad I'll call the guys at ACU4 to send one of their LCACs up river for me, LOL! Had a ride in one of those lovelies a few months back - 70mph plus out on the Bay was awesome!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Five people are confirmed dead after a weather-related accident in Washington County.

We are told the crash happened on U.S. 64, west of Creswell. The Highway Patrol says it happened at exit 554.

Killed was a family from Atlanta, Georgia. Troopers say a father, mother, an infant and twins were killed in the crash.

Witnesses told the Highway Patrol that the Jeep lost control on the highway, went off the right side of the road. The vehicle then ran down a small hill, hit an embankment and flipped over into a canal.

Troopers say the five appeared to have drowned and that weather is a factor in the crash
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like the media are not playing the nhcs name game on this storm
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Another image of the screaming moisture highway:



That's just amazing, isn't it? The deeper that trof kept digging in, I figured the southeastern seaboard was going to get a soaking, but I never imagined this. Wow!
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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z ECMWF I sure hope this doesn't pan out for the sake of Dominican Republic/Haiti and PR.

Thankfully since ECMWF appears to be trending, I won't sweat it just yet.


seems to me its trending further south and west

00Z run only took it near PR over the islands and then took it north

12Z took it south of PR and DR
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Quoting toddbizz:
Well I'm new to the blog and got caught up in the hype of the last storm...not much panned out here in South Florida however if I listened to the lot of your postings I should have been washed out to see here in Delray Beach...not much of a storm...thanks for all the great intel...
Hi...I'll try greeting you with a welcome instead of a whack. Welcome.
.
.
The hype here moves like the tide....it ebbs and flows. After awhile, you get to recognize the pattern.....and there are many posters here who have good points to add to supplement what you read from the NHC, Dr. Masters, etc.
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12Z ECMWF I sure hope this doesn't pan out for the sake of Dominican Republic/Haiti and PR.

Thankfully since ECMWF appears to be trending, I won't sweat it just yet.
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If any winds show up with this here in eastern NC, we are going to be seriously screwed.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Little flooding this am - not too bad in VaBeach at the moment even though it is high tide. Nice little dry slot right now letting things drain off and a stiff breeze out of the south. Norfolk as always - a mess and a half.
Thanks for the info. That's more than I get out of her.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Will - I'm 2.5 south of Gate 5, hang a left and half a mile east - water, water, everywhere, LOL.





lololol you gonna need one of those amphibious craft
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Quoting kwgirl:
How is it looking there in Va Beach? My sister lives on South Plaza Trail and I know she gets flooding but she says it isn't too bad. Of course that was hours ago and I haven't heard since.


Little flooding this am - not too bad in VaBeach at the moment even though it is high tide. Nice little dry slot right now letting things drain off and a stiff breeze out of the south. Norfolk as always - a mess and a half.
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Quoting toddbizz:
Well I'm new to the blog and got caught up in the hype of the last storm...not much panned out here in South Florida however if I listened to the lot of your postings I should have been washed out to see here in Delray Beach...not much of a storm...thanks for all the great intel...


Washed out to see what? Hopefully next time you will get to see whatever you were looking for.
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Quoting will40:


familiar wit that place i did some military duty at the little creek amphibious base. Lot of water around there lol


Will - I'm 2.5 south of Gate 5, hang a left and half a mile east - water, water, everywhere, LOL.
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Quoting toddbizz:
Well I'm new to the blog and got caught up in the hype of the last storm...not much panned out here in South Florida however if I listened to the lot of your postings I should have been washed to see here in Delray Beach...not much of a storm...thanks for all the great intel...


you dont pay much attention do you?, no one said anything like that and you know it

trying to make a name for yourself here? throwing out false claims is a quick way to end up on ignore lists here
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Virginia Beach - about 2 miles south of the Chesapeake Bay on the Western Branch of the Lynnhaven River
How is it looking there in Va Beach? My sister lives on South Plaza Trail and I know she gets flooding but she says it isn't too bad. Of course that was hours ago and I haven't heard since.
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Well I'm new to the blog and got caught up in the hype of the last storm...not much panned out here in South Florida however if I listened to the lot of your postings I should have been washed out to see here in Delray Beach...not much of a storm...thanks for all the great intel...
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Quoting pilotguy1:


About twenty five years ago my folks retired to the Phoenix area and promptly had three one hundred year floods in three years.


That's about the same time I saw three inches of snow on the ground in Phoenix. It was one of the most wicked snow scenes I've ever witnessed, with the saguaro cactus draped in the white stuff.
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Quoting NCWatch:
I am south of you in Nashville, NC. We have received 8.5 inches of rain so far. Very leery of rain events after Floyd!


did Floyd the last time we were stationed here. Yes, I watch, LOL.

High tide soon - creek will clear out in a couple of hours.
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Virginia Beach - about 2 miles south of the Chesapeake Bay on the Western Branch of the Lynnhaven River


familiar wit that place i did some military duty at the little creek amphibious base. Lot of water around there lol
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Pottery looking at the 1km blowup of pg151L is your house under the North or south towering cumulus cloud, if your still here.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
What is the worst case scenario for 97L?

For it to stay south of the islands and swing northeast into South Florida?

Or get caught up in the trough and move right in behind what was Nicole?
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I am south of you in Nashville, NC. We have received 8.5 inches of rain so far. Very leery of rain events after Floyd!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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