Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm enjoying the Levi and Drak discussion which I find very informative, but just as soon as the blog became completely weather related and informative, Mr. Reeedzone showed up. Bleh. Time to get the popcorn and Dr. Pepper...
I'm gonna settle for a cold Coors Light, LMAO. Bad for someone to do that to Reed though, as for Drak and Levi, probably the 2 most knowledgable here as far as weather is concerned, kinda disappointing to see it becoming so competitive and personal, like I wrote earlier " a rose by any other name is still a rose"
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622. JRRP
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
JFV needs to get a life.

lol
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Quoting reedzone:


Don't worry, I'm the REAL "Reedzone" also known as Allan C. Reed. Jr. A 21 year old who has a job and a life ;)
relax i know who is who maybe if people on here would look at the membership date on the bottom of the posts we would not be wasting time with idiots
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yep.. and it look like admin may have gotten him/her!!!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


It's fall.


Well break it on out again come spring ;)
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I like the new reed
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JFV needs to get a life.
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Quoting reedzone:


That's not me


The "other" reed's comments were finally removed... Back to the weather
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hey reed I just realized it wasn't you but it was very amusing to me....
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Quoting will40:


Son i was here i know what happened. Dennis saturated the area . Floyd damage would not have been as bad if Dennis had not arrived just before


Read this to settle the discussion....
Link
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Thanks Reed, yikes!




thats not are reedzone that is a impostor posting in his name
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Thanks Reed, yikes!


No Joe, that's an impostor. I wouldn't do anything like that.
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whats new with 97L haven't been on all day
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97L is at 12N 51W, moving west according to the navy site. this now means that the models will have to shift further south
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Question to SSIG from the real k8ecane.... Why did you go and put your shirt back on?
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Now that is what I call a forecast!!!!! LOL Good job Reed!!!
DOOMCON CONTROL would be proud of you as am I.


That's not me
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594. JRRP
reeedzone
Member Since: Septiembre 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

reedzone
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 4869

¬¬ mmmm?
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Off to lunch, back later.
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I wonder what will happen with the remnant low of Matthew now at 15N/90W if it emerges into the GOH like it appewars it will?
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I have noticed this blob of convection over the Central & Western Caribbean Sea is no longer being stretched out and pulled into ex-Nicole.


Is this another new area of Low pressure developing?
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There sure are alot of pouches in the area of 97L!

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Quoting goavs4:
You guys noticed it actually wasn't reedzone right? It's someone posing as him with his avatar and the username reeedzone.


Ah hahahahaha!!!! That's priceless!
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Schweeeeeeet...........


Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 21 sec ago
Clear
81.9 °F
Clear
Humidity: 36%
Dew Point: 52 °F
Wind: 1.6 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 5.8 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Pollen: 9.90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
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Quoting Levi32:


It's ok. Nobody in official government positions is ever going to like me lol. They will say statements like "Nicole spares North Carolina" and many others including me will roll their heads. They were not spared....get real.
Levi lets just say its water from a good gulf neighborhood! Its all the same now! lol
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Quoting reedzone:


Umm, that's not me.. Please report and ignore that impostor.


That is silly. How and why would someone want to do that. I hope it was a kid and not an adult because that is a very immature thing to do.
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Levi please save your energy for your next Tropical Tidbit that this blog enjoys. You are awesome!

Quoting Levi32:


If you were in North Carolina would you be able to tell the difference? I'm not saying she is a tropical cyclone, but North Carolina did get hit by a tropical system. There is no way around that. It's a storm with origin in the Caribbean that is still passing over 28C waters producing tropical storm conditions on the coast. They got hit by a tropical storm. Doesn't matter that it's asymmetric now embedded in the front.
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577. JRRP
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Quoting will40:
as Pat would say let go my EGO



Oh yes,,I did come up wit dat un..

Itsa winna
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Quoting reeedzone:


Imposters, such as this one, are so childish. Make your own account if you'd like to post information. Otherwise, just stay away.


Scottsvb, if this is you trying to mock me, just stop before you get permabanned.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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