Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1023 - 973

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
is nwc/noaa/nasa planning on assigning a floater to 97L?
If the need arises, they are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting popartpete:
Jersey Shore: 24 mph sustained, 34 mph gusts, so far. It feels like a tropical wind, very moist, out of the SSE.
.....must be those fierce hurricane force gusts jb predicted earlier,what the heck was he thinking,show me one ob or sat estimate of that(hurricane gusts)??.....maybe in a waterspout or nader though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I think the word "circle" is a misnomer for what the NHC do with their crayons. Still raining here too. I had to replace the fuse for the bilge pump float switch in my boat this afternoon while holding an umbrella in one hand and tools in another LOL.

Got it done though.
I couldn't go to work yesterday because water got in the wires at the EE Post Office so the electronic key pad couldn't open the door. No power there from 9 pm Tues. night until around 9 pm last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I suggested that kind of circle to the NHC. I am proud of that !!! he he he .....
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I hope the NHC doesn't jump the gun again and name it Otto tonight!


What do you mean by "Jump the gun?"

I dont know why I'm asking, I already know what you mean. Don't bring it up...Please don't bring it up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Quoting Patrap:


Well I wanted Magenta and Fuchsia to be used but they never got to me after numerous e-mails.

Go Fig-ya,Huh?


Maybe next year ?? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


How about a white circle with just a percentage. I agree this color system leaves little to be desired.


Typical.. the kids are having fun with their crayons.. and you want to take away all the good colours. Who ever used the white crayon anyway? other the Santa's beard... or Pottery's hair.... its useless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


How about a white circle with just a percentage. I agree this color system leaves little to be desired.


There's just something about the colour red though. DANGER !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jersey Shore: 24 mph sustained, 34 mph gusts, so far. It feels like a tropical wind, very moist, out of the SSE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1013. centex
They sure have their bases covered.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1012. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, they need some sort of system for rating the odds of development. Colours, percentages, more or less likely to develop, who knows ??


Well I wanted Magenta and Fuchsia to be used but they never got to me after numerous e-mails.

Go Fig-ya,Huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, they need some sort of system for rating the odds of development. Colours, percentages, more or less likely to develop, who knows ??


How about a white circle with just a percentage. I agree this color system leaves little to be desired.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They have got to be the weirdest looking "circles" I have ever seen. Raining here again.


I think the word "circle" is a misnomer for what the NHC do with their crayons. Still raining here too. I had to replace the fuse for the bilge pump float switch in my boat this afternoon while holding an umbrella in one hand and tools in another LOL.

Got it done though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OMG!!! they saw my graphic early today
I suggested the NHC they should do this





Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
Large hatch area.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Seriously? Those are some big disturbances. XD

The circle for 97L is a little to0 large when it's evident that the easternmost disturbance is the most likely one to develop.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Patrap:


Well the colors dont do much for development...last I checked..it only causes confusion and monomania.
But thats a opine,,not stated fact Kman,


Well, they need some sort of system for rating the odds of development. Colours, percentages, more or less likely to develop, who knows ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


SW ??
Oops, my bad. You're right, SW of the vort max.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1002. ackee
I agree with NHC on graphs on 97L think centre can consoliddate anywhere looks like it doing that near the windward to me guess same could be say area in NW carrbbean think low could for near central america or near the caymans just my view .
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
Complete Update

Nicole - heading towards the Carols

97L (aka. Pottery Jr.) - A lot likes its name sake, meandering towards the islands, drinking Rum... heading towards Box #2



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
999. JLPR2
Seriously? Those are some big disturbances. XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good call. :) I see what you mean, the surface circulation is to the SE of where the vort max is located. The system is also barely discernible at 500mb let alone vertically aligned. The convective organization is pretty decent though. Development of this into a tropical depression will be slow to occur...


SW ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery




These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

All one needs to watch development from Africa to Mexico..in ONE Link. Have at it..maybe bookmark it for da futa'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Good evening

I think I'll go with 30 % LOL

The 850 vort looks good tonight but it is displaced to the NE from the where the surface low is. Also, the convection is disorganized.

Good call. :) I see what you mean, the surface circulation is to the SW of where the vort max is located. The system is also barely discernible at 500mb let alone vertically aligned. The convective organization is pretty decent though. Development of this into a tropical depression will be slow to occur...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting thelmores:
no threat, but interesting anyway....

ex-nicole.....

Neuse River, New Bern, North Carolina (PWS)

Pressure: 29.37 in (Steady)




Thanks, I thought I was the only one to mention New Bern here. Can you take your circle off my house?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
We may need to put Caribbean on birth control.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


There should have been a yellow circle in the NW Caribbean from yesterday IMO


Well the colors dont do much for development...last I checked..it only causes confusion and monomania.
But thats a opine,,not stated fact Kman,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL! Well said, Patrap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
I was wondering when the NHC would focus on the NW Caribbean again.
They have got to be the weirdest looking "circles" I have ever seen. Raining here again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The Caribbean from GOES-13 in False Color,WV
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kimoskee:
Will it ever end???

Met Service of Jamaica
NEWS RELEASE
September 30, 2010 – 5:00 p.m.

***FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT***


Maybe you could ask Tampa to borrow their shield? You guys seriously need a break.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Who needs the NHC to focus when we have 400,000 eyes here doing it..



There should have been a yellow circle in the NW Caribbean from yesterday IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stay the same at 30%, option B wins. Cogratulations to ackee, scott39 and CybrTeddy.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
Quoting scott39:
Going off convection can be deceiving.


What else is there? experence? SST? what elce?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Beaufort Cty, NC under a state of emergency.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
979. ackee
Quoting kmanislander:
I was wondering when the NHC would focus on the NW Caribbean again.
agree
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
says it show signs of organization now but i dont get it shouldve got a 40% but that bevens choice...he seems consertative


30% is the right call IMO. See my post 971
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who needs the NHC to focus when we have 400,000 eyes here doing it..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And a new 10%'er
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was wondering when the NHC would focus on the NW Caribbean again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I never Poll on a Thursday..

Bad mojo can only come from it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1023 - 973

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
78 °F
Partly Cloudy