Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1073 - 1023

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Quoting presslord:


the NHC is run by little green humanoid alien creatures from a secret bunker at Area 51 in New Mexico...from which they receive their daily instructions from the Vatican to achieve world dominion...your denial of the conspiracy in no way impacts its' demonstrable reality...



yeah i heard about that....don't they meet at the Bilderberg hotel every year with the Freemasons to plan the demise of "the little people".....??? lmao....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1071. breald
Quoting presslord:


the NHC is run by little green humanoid alien creatures from a secret bunker at Area 51 in New Mexico...from which they receive their daily instructions from the Vatican to achieve world dominion...your denial of the conspiracy in no way impacts its' demonstrable reality...



LOL
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
1070. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


They stopped at 06Z today. Judging by the large circle and two waves involved, they may be waiting to see which one is going to win out. No point running models when the AOI is a thousand NM.


Seems pretty obvious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Teeth !!. You kidding ??. Have you seen what it costs to cap a nice set of pearly whites ??


Too true!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1068. breald
Quoting srada:


I have a feeling they may be waiting to see what the rivers do..


Could be. Had this been a "named" storm they would have done so before it even hit like they did with Earl.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting xcool:


wow


Hmmmmmmm....poor North Carolina!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I hope we're not going to go through that insane NHC conspiracy theory again. It was a marginal case. It was warm-cored but without a well defined center. It had very low pressures. They named it. So what?


the NHC is run by little green humanoid alien creatures from a secret bunker at Area 51 in New Mexico...from which they receive their daily instructions from the Vatican to achieve world dominion...your denial of the conspiracy in no way impacts its' demonstrable reality...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1065. will40
Quoting srada:


I have a feeling they may be waiting to see what the rivers do..



Gov has already declared state of emergency
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




....good news for charleston, just pray for your neighbors up in wilmington.....they have been literally pounded today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1063. ackee
Quoting kmanislander:


My bad :-(

Still, I think the area East of the islands has the edge for odds on developing. The Caribbean is also a fertile breeding ground from now thru the end of November.
agree that where suface low or spining is occuring
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1062. pcola57
Looks like the NHC has alooooot of square miles in the circles.May be due to uncertainty but that's a bit striking.Very large.Possibly monsoonal developments?I wonder just how much area that is in Sq. Miles?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1061. xcool


wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1060. Patrap
Charleston is drying out and dodge a Lot of the worst seems


133
fxus62 kchs 302307
afdchs


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
707 PM EDT Thursday Sep 30 2010


Synopsis...
upper level low pressure will shift into the middle-Atlantic region
tonight while the remnant low pressure system from Tropical Storm
Nicole moves into eastern North Carolina. Cool...dry high pressure
will build into the southeast states Friday through the middle of
next week.


&&


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
last few hours of water vapor satellite imagery indicates the
closed upper low over central Georgia is beginning to kick out to the
northeast. Now that it is moving...it should quickly lift into
the Middle Atlantic States tonight. The remnant low from T.S.
Nicole as well as its associated rainfall will remain just east of
our coastal waters this evening as it slides into eastern NC
overnight. Wrap around moisture with the upper low will maintain
mostly cloudy skies in most areas tonight. The exception could be
in southeast Georgia and interior SC where negative vorticity advection behind the
departing low should work to scour out clouds.


Scattered showers have developed across the central Savannah
River area in an area of lift just east of the low center. We
maintained a slight chance of showers across northern areas this
evening to account for spotty shower coverage with the upper low.
High pressure will advect cooler drier air in from the west late
tonight which should allow for low temperatures in the 50s inland to
lower 60s coastal.


&&


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
cool dry high pressure building in from the north will prevail Friday on
through the weekend while a stationary front remains offshore. At
least one wave of low pressure is forecast to move north out of the
Caribbean during this time. Latest thinking is that most of the
moisture will remain offshore and thus will maintain a dry forecast
over land but cannot completely rule out a few showers near the
coast. Noticeably lower dewpoints along with much cooler/
below-normal temperatures...are expected. Highs in the low-middle 80s
Friday will drop to the middle-upper 70s by sun. However...the most
noticeable change will be in low temperatures where some upper 40s are
possible well inland Sun morning.


&&


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
cool dry high pressure at the surface will prevail for the first half of
next week...although there will be an increase in clouds Monday as an
upper level trough axis drops southeast from the Great Lakes into the Middle
Atlantic States. There only looks to be upper level clouds moving across
as the low-middle levels look too dry to support precipitation. The upper
level trough looks to hold in along the East Coast through middle week.
There may be a few weak waves of low pressure trying to move north out
of the Caribbean but they should remain well offshore with the upper
trough in place. Have maintained a dry forecast over land areas
through the period due to the offshore flow and lack of significant
moisture. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period...with
mins reaching the upper 40s well inland /low-middle 50s closer to the
coast/ at least through Wednesday morning...and maximum temperatures mainly in the
middle 70s.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:



Nope. That was from a chat 4 days ago where the other person in question altered about 90% of what I said before posting it.


But then, if I were, you Wouldn't really expect me to tell you, would you?


lol....I saw that this morning....wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1058. bwat
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



It is hard to tell where Nicole is....I have seen people show maps in this blog that show the low pressure making landfall in south carolina; however the remnants of Nicole are still hanging down above Cuba.

The training of precip and wind voracity will continue to move in the same track it has been all day long. With the high pressure parked to the east of the precip. train even if the remnant low of Nicole slides east the squeeze is on between the low pressure aloft along the coast and the strong high pressure to the east in the Atlantic. It's all pointing it at NC/SC/VA and that isn't going to change anytime soon. All precip is going to be squeezed out like a sponge over the states since the squeeze is holding in place.
With respect my friend, I dont think the remenants of Nicole are nowhere near Cuba. I think they are just north or near the GA/SC border. Can you post a link to show me where its at? I think that moistern by cuba is just that. Moisture left behind that the next system would love to find. Then again, I'm a newb and dont know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1057. srada
Quoting breald:


I am very surprised the Governor of NC has not done so yet. Especially in Wilmington


I have a feeling they may be waiting to see what the rivers do..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oops, dinner bell just chimed LOL

Back later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
when we see new model run on 97L


They stopped at 06Z today. Judging by the large circle and two waves involved, they may be waiting to see which one is going to win out. No point running models when the AOI is a thousand NM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening. I see the largest circle of the season east of the Antilles, which shouldn't be so big since the eastern side seems to be more dominant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. will40
Quoting breald:


I am very surprised the Governor of NC has not done so yet. Especially in Wilmington



see post 1035
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1051. Patrap



NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any news out of Charleston, SC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Caymanfishnut:



Hi Kman, on the errr... bright side - I guess atleast it was light enough to not be using your teeth while holding a flashlight/torch!

Sure would have been a few sleepless nights for some of us "boaties" here in Cayman! Mines on a trailer right now, phew!


Teeth !!. You kidding ??. Have you seen what it costs to cap a nice set of pearly whites ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1048. centex
After ex-Nicole moves out (which is happening real fast) the Carib AOI may catch up with 97L development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1047. Patrap
All I have still is the 06 package..but maybe we will get a 00Z update within the Hour from ATCF

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. breald
Quoting flsky:
Does anyone know if the govs of N/S Carolina or VA have made disaster declarations yet? A lot of people are going to need help.


I am very surprised the Governor of NC has not done so yet. Especially in Wilmington
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting JLPR2:


Was talking about 97L but yes, that too.


My bad :-(

Still, I think the area East of the islands has the edge for odds on developing. The Caribbean is also a fertile breeding ground from now thru the end of November.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I think the word "circle" is a misnomer for what the NHC do with their crayons. Still raining here too. I had to replace the fuse for the bilge pump float switch in my boat this afternoon while holding an umbrella in one hand and tools in another LOL.

Got it done though.



Hi Kman, on the errr... bright side - I guess atleast it was light enough to not be using your teeth while holding a flashlight/torch!

Sure would have been a few sleepless nights for some of us "boaties" here in Cayman! Mines on a trailer right now, phew!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


There's just something about the colour red though. DANGER !



Yeah, I see you there. Nix the yellow and orange though. White to 80%, then Red.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1040. ackee
when we see new model run on 97L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bwat:
Here in NE NC, winds picking up. Too much rain. My zip is 27944 if anyone wanted to search it. Winds have been picking up all evening, can we look for this to continue? Rains have let up for now, but we really dont need any more precip! Please give me some good news and tell me the worst is over! According to Accuweather (aka: buy your weather :)) Bastardi thinks ex Nicole gained strength. I myself find this hard to beleive since Nicole joined with the trough. I did read back and read Levi's blog, and he said, some tropical storm force gust for us. But from what I have seen at 27944, we've already had that, so whats to come? I'm telling you guys that the closer these so called "reminents" get, the more wind we are getting. Please tell me whats up! did ex-nicole strengthen?



It is hard to tell where Nicole is....I have seen people show maps in this blog that show the low pressure making landfall in south carolina; however the remnants of Nicole are still hanging down above Cuba.

The training of precip and wind voracity will continue to move in the same track it has been all day long. With the high pressure parked to the east of the precip. train even if the remnant low of Nicole slides east the squeeze is on between the low pressure aloft along the coast and the strong high pressure to the east in the Atlantic. It's all pointing it at NC/SC/VA and that isn't going to change anytime soon. All precip is going to be squeezed out like a sponge over the states since the squeeze is holding in place.

Somehow I think that the models over a week ago were correct, in a way. They were predicting low pressures all over the place and so far this has played out due to so many scattered spawns for precip. training northbound.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1037. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:


Large area of residual troughness left over from TD 16. Surface pressures still relatively low plus climatology. Something could spin up out of that area.


Was talking about 97L but yes, that too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1036. Patrap
Quoting flsky:
Does anyone know if the govs of N/S Carolina or VA have made disaster declarations yet? A lot of people are going to need help.


As relief and Communications Coordinator for Portlight,,we havent heard any State Declaration made yet...as of 4pm last I checked.
But many relief org's are already preparing to go in and help as soon as possible.


NC storm brings 'historic rains'
Early responders compare flooding to Hurricane Floyd 11 years ago.
BY JOHN PAPE | WILMINGTON, NC


The National Weather Service downgraded Tropical Storm Nicole to a subtropical weather system Wednesday afternoon, but that did not stop the storm system from pushing drenching rains into North Carolina, triggering a state of emergency declaration in two counties.

As a tropical storm, Nicole had a lifespan of only six hours; however, moisture produced by the storm is expected to bring heavy rain and flooding to much of the east coast for several days.

Brunswick and New Hanover counties, both of which are located in the Wilmington metropolitan area, declared states of emergency after receiving more than 15 inches of rain.

The rains were initially triggered by a front that moved across much of the eastern seaboard on Sunday, but was quickly followed by moisture pushed across the region by the remnants of Nicole.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. will40
Gov. Beverly Perdue has proclaimed a state of emergency as North Carolina's coastal residents brace for drenching rains from a weather system interacting with approaching remnants of a recent tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. bwat
Quoting flsky:
Does anyone know if the govs of N/S Carolina or VA have made disaster declarations yet? A lot of people are going to need help.
Your answer is NO. I have lived here all my life. Other than Isabel I have never really been concerned. Right nor I'm worried. Not for myself, but for the ppl that have to go into work tomorrow. I'm telling ya, we are under water! I've been listening to my scanner and already heard of 8 wrecks so far. Ppl arent aking this seriously!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Agreed, I dont get why they included the westernmost area of convection, not much going on there.


Large area of residual troughness left over from TD 16. Surface pressures still relatively low plus climatology. Something could spin up out of that area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flsky:
Does anyone know if the govs of N/S Carolina or VA have made disaster declarations yet? A lot of people are going to need help.


it has been surprisingly difficult today to get information from up there...we've been working all day on trying to get a clear picture of the situation...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pilotguy1:
I take it from this patter that no one is taking 97L very seriously.


I have one eye on the blog and the other on 97L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1027. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The circle for 97L is a little to0 large when it's evident that the easternmost disturbance is the most likely one to develop.


Agreed, I dont get why they included the westernmost area of convection, not much going on there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1026. flsky
Does anyone know if the govs of N/S Carolina or VA have made disaster declarations yet? A lot of people are going to need help.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1025. centex
I don't see any circles. Maybe they should just shade the whole Caribbean and SW Atl with various shades.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1024. bwat
Here in NE NC, winds picking up. Too much rain. My zip is 27944 if anyone wanted to search it. Winds have been picking up all evening, can we look for this to continue? Rains have let up for now, but we really dont need any more precip! Please give me some good news and tell me the worst is over! According to Accuweather (aka: buy your weather :)) Bastardi thinks ex Nicole gained strength. I myself find this hard to beleive since Nicole joined with the trough. I did read back and read Levi's blog, and he said, some tropical storm force gust for us. But from what I have seen at 27944, we've already had that, so whats to come? I'm telling you guys that the closer these so called "reminents" get, the more wind we are getting. Please tell me whats up! did ex-nicole strengthen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
is nwc/noaa/nasa planning on assigning a floater to 97L?
If the need arises, they are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1073 - 1023

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.