Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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1173. Seastep
Quoting Chicklit:
monsoonal


I think that is definitely the defining word of this season.
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1172. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Potts. Feeling a little stuck in the middle?

Indeed!!
Cannot figure out what happens next...
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Shear
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Hi Potts. Feeling a little stuck in the middle?
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Quoting Chicklit:
monsoonal


Wow! Elongated AoIs! The world has ended. :O
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1168. hydrus
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


See post 1140
Thank you and JLPR2...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21507
I hope it snows in Astroland.
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1166. centex
Explain how weak tropical system created 1 1/2 foot rain thousand miles away. I think that supports no name and just a high octane event between extra strong trough and large area of tropical moisture.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


In South Florida they waited until the streets and such were flooded before deciding to open the canal gates and lower water levels in the canals so that the waterways would be able to handle the influx of water from the drains. The problem is that they were well aware of what was coming and knew that the specific areas that flood would be drenched, South Florida Water Management says that they were ready for hurricane season, if so, why then did they wait until the flooding was already underway before opening the gates, imagine if this was a hurricane.


Hi Plywood: actually they opened them up about 36 hours prior to when they thought we would be hit. I think they did a pretty good job, most of the canals I saw were good. Now, the little lakes were a different story, but there isn't anything they can do about those.
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1161. pottery
Good Evening all.
Weather has cleared up nicely since earlier flooding rains and squalls from the South and West.
Satelites were out (?) for a few hrs., and while that was happening much of the heavy rainfall seemed to drop south over Guyana/Venezuela.
The center has "relocated" to the east? That would be more in keeping with the second AOI that was pegged at 30% yesterday then.
Interesting stuff going on down here...
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1159. bwat
Alright, i'm leaving after this. sorry to be this way and I hope it don't get me banned! But a lot of you guys and gals worry about the current weather, but dont worry aout the after effects! I think we, (and I hope you) want to do more than observe weather! You have many options, including PortLight. I'm telling you guys, united we stand, divided we fall! If anything else someone WU-mail me how I can make a difference. Always with you guys, Brian.
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monsoonal
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1157. beell
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I hope we're not going to go through that insane NHC conspiracy theory again. It was a marginal case. It was warm-cored but without a well defined center. It had very low pressures. They named it. So what?


It hooked up with the cold front almost as soon as it cleared Cuba and came under the influence of the strong divergent (exhaust)upper winds from the trough. Ascent of warm moist air (isentropic-some say over-running) began pretty quick. The Warm Conveyor Belt. The "core" was leaning into and over the front. No longer symmetric in thermal profile.

It was a TS for how long?

I'll leave out the conspiracy/alien components of this opinion!
:)
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look at the moisture wrapping back around the eastern side of that high pressure in the atlantic. it looks like it wants to recycle water back into the caribbean if the loop continues.
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Quoting Stoopid1:
Got a couple of inches of rain here in Saratoga Springs, NY. Wind wasn't so bad, max gust was around 31 mph. Barometer reading 29.53 inches and dropping still.


Ever go out on Lake George? The clam bar still there?

Evening everyone. Humidity is back, guess our cool spell, or at least the best part of it is gone. It was great with low humidity.
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1154. xcool
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1153. xcool


oh wow goo bye 97l

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1152. hydrus
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


See post 1140
Thats reassuring with a very large looking 97L looming. Even looks ominous.....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21507
1151. JLPR2
Quoting hydrus:
What does that mean for storm tracks?


CyclonicVoyage gave a perfect explanation just before you asked. :]
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Link



csn you plzs stop spaming the blog with that link plzs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



So people know what that means.

The NAO influences landfall probability for Atlantic hurricanes through changes in the above-mentioned subtropical high-pressure cell over the Atlantic Ocean. A positive NAO index is correlated with elevated pressures in the subtropical high over the North Atlantic Ocean and more frequent re-curvature of Atlantic hurricanes. A negative NAO index is correlated with lower pressures in the subtropical high and a more zonal atmospheric flow that tends to maintain an east-to-west hurricane track.


Thank you for that concise explanation!
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Quoting RMM34667:
Looks like the STOOPID CIRCLE is back!



hey i resemble that statement...lol
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Quoting hydrus:
What does that mean for storm tracks?


See post 1140
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1143. hydrus
Quoting JLPR2:
Was this posted today?
The EURO has the NAO going from a strong positive to a strong Negative.

What does that mean for storm tracks?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21507
1142. bwat
Quoting bwat:
Thanks for all that you and PortLight do! I have give, but not as much as I would of liked too. I encorage everyone that reads this to please give! These folks give a great service and should not be taken forgranted!
I am sorry, I thought I quoted to Patrap/PortLight. They are the ones I wish everyone to try to donate to. Please, they need the funds, and know how to use them. Please donate!
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1141. JLPR2
Very interesting center relocation. :\

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Quoting JLPR2:
Was this posted today?
The EURO has the NAO going from a strong positive to a strong Negative.




So people know what that means.

The NAO influences landfall probability for Atlantic hurricanes through changes in the above-mentioned subtropical high-pressure cell over the Atlantic Ocean. A positive NAO index is correlated with elevated pressures in the subtropical high over the North Atlantic Ocean and more frequent re-curvature of Atlantic hurricanes. A negative NAO index is correlated with lower pressures in the subtropical high and a more zonal atmospheric flow that tends to maintain an east-to-west hurricane track.
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1139. bwat
Thanks for all that you and PortLight do! I have give, but not as much as I would of liked too. I encorage everyone that reads this to please give! These folks give a great service and should not be taken forgranted!
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rainbow loop--eastern seaboard

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html


...and the ride looks like it's gonna get bumpy..


dvorak loop--

Link


link to index page of sat. floaters--

Link
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Got a couple of inches of rain here in Saratoga Springs, NY. Wind wasn't so bad, max gust was around 31 mph. Barometer reading 29.53 inches and dropping still.
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1136. WXTXN
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That post was removed.
anyway that's how Carter came up...
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evening everyone...looks a carrib storm coming very soon....but is there any chance that maybe something could form at the tail end of that frontal blob just below jamaica??
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1133. Patrap
Beaufort, North Carolina

Updated: 2:57 PM EDT on September 30, 2010
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...
High surf advisory in effect until 8 am EDT Friday...
Wind Advisory in effect until midnight EDT tonight...
Flood Watch in effect through late tonight...
High rip current risk in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...



527
fxus62 kmhx 301941
afdmhx


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 PM EDT Thursday Sep 30 2010


Synopsis...
strong low pressure...associated with the remnants of Tropical
Storm Nicole will move north of the area tonight...with a cold
front sweeping offshore by early Friday. Strong Canadian high
pressure will build north of the area for the next few days.
Meanwhile another area of low pressure will move offshore of North
Carolina Sunday into Monday.


&&


Near term /through Friday/...
as of 345 PM Thursday...plume of deep moisture continues to
spread from south to north from the Bahamas into southeast
Virginia. Large area of heavy rain continues to train across our
County Warning Area...mainly west of Highway 17 with flooding rainfall continuing.
Will continue Flood Watch until 08z with an additional 2 to 4
inches possible. Storm total rainfall amounts back to Sunday show
an incredible 16.6 inches over portions of northeast Onslow
County...so even once the rainfall ends...waters will be slow to
recede. As tropical remnant low moves north of the area later
tonight...the rain should gradually start to diminish late tonight
and early Friday morning. The departing low will finally pull a
strong cold front offshore by early Friday morning. Lows tonight
should drop into the 60s inland to around 70 near the coast.
Lingering showers Friday should mostly diminish by afternoon with
some partial sunshine. Maximum temperatures should be in the lower to middle
70s.


&&


Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
as of 345 PM Thursday...the first taste of true Fall like weather
will be felt Friday night as mins range from the upper 40s well
inland to around 60 on the coast. Saturday should be pleasant with
mostly sunny skies with maximum temperatures in the lower and middle 70s.
Another pleasant night Saturday night with mins again into the 50s
most areas. Nam12 and European model (ecmwf) have been fairly consistent in
producing another low off the Carolinas coast and spreading
moisture into mainly the coastal sections Sunday and especially
Sunday night where will have high chance probability of precipitation.
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Quoting WXTXN:

I am joking: didn't you read 1079...? I come here for weather and conspiracy theories.


That post was removed.
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000
NOUS41 KAKQ 010032
PNSAKQ
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-010137-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
830 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


MARYLAND

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
PRINCESS ANNE 0.54 700 AM 9/30

...WICOMICO COUNTY...
DELMAR 0.43 630 AM 9/30
SALISBURY 0.27 700 AM 9/30
SALISBURY 0.23 755 AM 9/30

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
BISHOPVILLE 0.11 500 AM 9/30

NORTH CAROLINA

...BERTIE COUNTY...
PERRYTOWN 11.66 906 AM 9/30 COOP
WINDSOR 7.01 926 AM 9/30 RAWS SITE THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
ELIZABETH CITY 4.95 924 AM 9/30 THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY
SOUTH MILLS 4.07 700 AM 9/30

...CHOWAN COUNTY...
EDENTON 2.18 925 AM 9/30 THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY
EDENTON 13.7 600 PM 9/30 SPOTTER

...CURRITUCK COUNTY...
CAROVA BEACH 0.69 800 AM 9/30

VIRGINIA

...ACCOMACK COUNTY...
ONANCOCK 0.40 700 AM 9/30

...CAROLINE COUNTY...
RUTHER GLEN 2.33 440 AM 9/30

...CHESTERFIELD COUNTY...
CHESTER 2.30 659 AM 9/30
MIDLOTHIAN 1.19 700 AM 9/30
WALTHALL 4.75 100 PM 9/30

...GREENVILLE COUNTY
PURDY 5.26 245 PM 9/30

...CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS...
NEWPORT NEWS 1.58 923 AM 9/30 THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY

...CITY OF NORFOLK...
NORFOLK 3.83 921 AM 9/30 THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY
NORFOLK 9.52 600 PM 9/30 COOP

...CITY OF RICHMOND...
RICHMOND 4.68 920 AM 9/30 THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY

...CITY OF WILLIAMSBURG...
WILLIAMSBURG 4.27 914 AM 9/30 THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY

...HENRICO COUNTY...
RICHMOND 3.09 730 AM 9/30
GLEN ALLEN 2.78 1201 PM 9/30

...ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY...
CARRSVILLE 5.06 700 AM 9/30

...JAMES CITY COUNTY...
WILLIAMSBURG 5.72 700 AM 9/30
WILLIAMSBURG 5.41 700 AM 9/30
WILLIAMSBURG 5.22 530 AM 9/30

...LANCASTER COUNTY...
LANCASTER 4.82 700 AM 9/30

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
HARTFIELD 4.47 700 AM 9/30

...PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY...
DISPUTANTA 6.31 600 PM 9/30

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
WARSAW 3.35 600 PM 9/30

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
WAKEFIELD 7.45 800 AM 9/30

...WESTMORELAND COUNTY...
MONTROSS 4.30 800 AM 9/30

...YORK COUNTY...
YORKTOWN 3.89 700 AM 9/30
GRAFTON 3.45 640 AM 9/30




too bad this is not in snowfall
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1128. Seastep
Loop
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1127. breald
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
My step-dad was Jimmy Carter’s personal Secret Service Agent!


Cool!!
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1126. Patrap
Quoting bwat:
I'm telling yall, were gonna need PortLight around here! Lots of flooding without many reports! they will come with time was the reporters get to us.


Were working on a plan as to relief but its tentative ATM and Presslord will have more to say soon.
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1125. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI




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1123. bwat
I'm telling yall, were gonna need PortLight around here! Lots of flooding without many reports! they will come with time was the reporters get to us.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.