Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

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Quoting pottery:

I feel so left out.
I have not been insulted for the entire evening.


Ummm ok Shep
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Quoting hunkerdown:
did the nurses already put him in bed for the night ?
After they held the nightly drawing to see who got to climb in with him to warm it up since his circulation isn't what it once was.
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1371. xcool
traumaboyy .i'm nott ready for noo dam cold air
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks doorman. LOL
have you become so lame that you are requiring others to defend you :)
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Quoting pottery:

I feel so left out.
I have not been insulted for the entire evening.


You bad and mean pottery!!

That sounds creepy lol
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting xcool:
feel soo good outsidee


64�F


Feels too dam good to be at work for sure!!
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Quoting fldude99:
So is the 2010 season done...kaput?

NO
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1363. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

I feel so left out.
I have not been insulted for the entire evening.


Don't worry, pot. The evening is young and your not.
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks doorman. LOL


Anytime :)
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1361. Seastep
Just looked at the 12Z CMC. LOL.

That would be something. And, yes, this could be considered "hype" by the model.



Link

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So is the 2010 season done...kaput?
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1359. Grothar
Quoting doorman79:


Never under estimate Grothar. just change a word or 2 in there and you have it right. lol


Thanks doorman. LOL
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1358. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


No still here watching everybody insulting each other between storms.

I feel so left out.
I have not been insulted for the entire evening.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
when in reality all they are looking at is a lot of blowoff and mid level clouds. Mid level clouds make a great picture and can mislead people into thinking that a storm is brewing and growing


Is this why those 'rainbow' graphics people post always look so ominous, but then when you look at the real Doppler radar (when available), there's hardly any green rainbands?
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1355. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


don't say that. you are gonna hurt his feelings . this model is not too bad.


Eh....
XD
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1354. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
did the nurses already put him in bed for the night ?


No still here watching everybody insulting each other between storms.
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What happened to Invest 97L?

Its not on the floater anymore, and look at post #1153
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Quoting hunkerdown:
did the nurses already put him in bed for the night ?


Yes. IV is in and teeth are in the glass.
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1351. xcool
feel soo good outsidee


64F
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Quoting hunkerdown:
did the nurses already put him in bed for the night ?


Never under estimate Grothar. just change a word or 2 in there and you have it right. lol
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well the NAM is onboard with a system in the NE Caribbean, but this is just for entrainment, the NAM doesn't count. xD



don't say that. you are gonna hurt his feelings . this model is not too bad.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1581
Dr. Masters..I just want to correct a post that I saw yesterday. In it you called the Cayman Islands the Grand Cayman Islands. There are three Islands: Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and Grand Cayman.
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Quoting xcool:
Cowboys.lol


evenin young man!!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For Grothar:

did the nurses already put him in bed for the night ?
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Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: June - July

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of June and July 2010. This video features Hurricane Alex, which blew up quickly and torched the Mexico Gulf coast and well inland! Also shown is Tropical Storm Bonnie, which could not quite get it together. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."



Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: August - September

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? This is one killer video you will want to see again and again. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."

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1344. pottery
Quoting txjac:
Thats a lot of rain pott ...in such a small amount of time ...I cant compain, been beautiful here in Houston

Caused some flooding on roads and in the City. Nothing serious.
Plenty lightening and squally winds from the south and west.

Clear skies now, but lightening to the north.

Glad to hear Houston is good.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
97L will most likely turn out to be nothing...shear will not be favorable...upper level flow dropping a ton of cold air. Even going to see a low of 46 in southern miss sunday night. it is just a nice trough of a cluster of tstorms to help churn the water as hurricane season is nearing the end as conditions for formation contine to fall off.
7 day outlook for central Palm Beach County

Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.

Saturday
Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday
Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Breezy. Lows 73 to 77. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Breezy. Lows 75 to 79. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy. Lows 77 to 81. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 79. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

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1342. xcool
Cowboys.lol
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1341. JLPR2
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

No prob...one thing that people jump on too much here is they thing a system is firing off a ton of convetion when in reality all they are looking at is a lot of blowoff and mid level clouds. Mid level clouds make a great picture and can mislead people into thinking that a storm is brewing and growing. yea it looks great but nothing is really happening. I think that is when a lot of people get frustrated with NHC wondering why something isnt upgraded.


Remember 92L back in June when it exploded once it entered the Caribbean, it looked like a TD but well... no trace of a circulation, just pretty convection. XD
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1340. Seastep
Quoting hunkerdown:
the hype that Ron is causing...and by the way, which blogger on here labeled that cloud an invest ?


That cloud designation is not hype. A simple relocation. :)

Look at the NHC "circle the Atlantic." LOL.

I'll take your word for it on Ron, but I didn't see anything crazy.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

No prob...one thing that people jump on too much here is they thing a system is firing off a ton of convetion when in reality all they are looking at is a lot of blowoff and mid level clouds. Mid level clouds make a great picture and can mislead people into thinking that a storm is brewing and growing. yea it looks great but nothing is really happening. I think that is when a lot of people get frustrated with NHC wondering why something isnt upgraded.
Which is why I like this cloud top temp product...
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1337. JLPR2
Well the NAM is onboard with a system in the NE Caribbean, but this is just for entrainment, the NAM doesn't count. xD

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1336. txjac
Thats a lot of rain pott ...in such a small amount of time ...I cant compain, been beautiful here in Houston
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Quoting Orcasystems:


If you loose them, they are on my blog...somewhere...above the Orca eating the penguin


How is the penguin these days, I'll trade you some gator or nutria lol.
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Quoting Seastep:


What hype?
the hype that Ron is causing...and by the way, which blogger on here labeled that cloud an invest ?
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
MOVING WNW ON HERE
you were saying Jupiter ?
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Quoting txjac:
Thanks Orca ...I grabbed and bookmarked those links as well


If you loose them, they are on my blog...somewhere...above the Orca eating the penguin
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1331. pottery
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I don't think I've ever seen a formation potential area so big as the orange one east of the Antilles. I wonder how much moisture is in that thing. Whether it will cause flooding in the Antilles even if it doesn't develop. And whether it will cause flooding on the east coast or the Gulf coast if it goes there.

We had a small cell pass over the Island today, and it dropped 2" of rain in 35 mins...
I think that there is a lot of moisture out there.
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1330. XLR8
I will take some rain if someone can send it this way.
Our rainfall total of 0.04" ties the driest September on record in Jackson, MS.
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Quoting txjac:
Doorman ...I like the way you think! Been saying that same thing much lately ...I could probably do all that you mention (not killing the pig though, I'd be a vegitarian). We are soft and lacking


Well I grew up poor, so that was a way of life lol. I love my puter, but honestly, how many people and buisnesses can't do without em now? Time would probably stop for most.
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hey guys I got a feeling that we may get 98L in the NW caribbean soon between tonight and saturday night
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1326. txjac
Thanks Orca ...I grabbed and bookmarked those links as well
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1325. Seastep
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

No prob...one thing that people jump on too much here is they thing a system is firing off a ton of convetion when in reality all they are looking at is a lot of blowoff and mid level clouds. Mid level clouds make a great picture and can mislead people into thinking that a storm is brewing and growing. yea it looks great but nothing is really happening. I think that is when a lot of people get frustrated with NHC wondering why something isnt upgraded.


Just saying that vort is there at 45W. 850 and 700.

And I haven't seen anyone speaking about this being upgraded. Has a ways to go and haven't heard anything to the contrary.

Tough at night to see any of that anyway.

We'll see how it goes. :)
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1324. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, as anyone who's ever looked at a map of the Atlantic can tell you, southern Mississippi is a long way north of the Caribbean, so the temps there won't have one iota of effect on the development of 97L. (FWIW, temps here in south Florida are still in the upper 70s to low 80s at night, with highs in the low 90s...happy happy hurricane weather.)

Yes, hurricane season is nearing the end...as it has been since June 2nd. There are still two solid months of that season left, with anywhere from a bare minimum of three or four more storms to as many as ten more before it's all said and done.

Having said all that: yes, there are many on here who simple parrot what they read or see elsewhere. But that's okay; this isn't a forum just for professional tropical forecasters and employees of the NHC, but rather for those interested in and enthused by tropical (and other) weather. And since most on here have no plans to become professional meteorologists, what's the harm in them doing a little layman learning?

Good Post, man!!
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1323. txjac
Nice Neapolitan, very well said.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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