Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!
Hooray for the power company!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1423 - 1373

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Is 97L the front running convection that dissipated throughout the day heading west? or is it the convection blowing up heading WNW?? Cuz that convections is starting to looks serious and with a building high, Southeast US better watch out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now your showing your age...
Pottery remembers when it used to be Rum and Tab.


I remember when they were trying to market that...until they found out it caused cancer or something. And Fresca too...I think that's gone as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1421. pottery
Quoting melwerle:


The two of your posts have caused me a ton of clean up over here. Rum and diet coke, through the nose, on the screen of my computer. Thanks, guys.

Yer welcome, Mel.
Anything to help with the sinuses...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
I don't know about north of the border but they still sell Tab down here in the sunshine state


They would have to.. whats the average age down there... 65-70?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:


Florida


Now I feel like an a$$ lol. I'm toasted!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1418. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Next TWO comes out at 2:00 a.m. Elongate that you old fool:)


Is that why they call it a TWO? Is there a TWO at 5? I think you are all just trying to confuse me. They do the same here at the home, they tell us that the NCIS reruns are NEW shows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
ilove hothot weatherrr


+100

NOLA SUX!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now your showing your age...
Pottery remembers when it used to be Rum and Tab.
I don't know about north of the border but they still sell Tab down here in the sunshine state
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1415. MZT
Vorticity has held up pretty well down there today:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1414. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
feel soo good outsidee


64�F


Eh... it's ok here I guess XD

78.6 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting doorman79:


Where u from?


Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:


The two of your posts have caused me a ton of clean up over here. Rum and diet coke, through the nose, on the screen of my computer. Thanks, guys.


Now your showing your age...
Pottery remembers when it used to be Rum and Tab.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:


The two of your posts have caused me a ton of clean up over here. Rum and diet coke, through the nose, on the screen of my computer. Thanks, guys.


Wasn't them, it was the diet coke lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mbinmo:
Looks like those boys from college station don't like it ,sorry atmo
Ehh, it's been a long time since it was exciting.

Good thing we fired our winningest coach...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seeing as how there's very little chance we'll see Otto in the next 65 minutes, I figure I'm safe throwing up the final September numbers:

--The month saw ten active named storms: eight born during the month (Gaston through Nicole), and two carried over from August (Earl & Fiona)

--Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the month totaled a very high 84.685 (To put that into perspective, that's more than many entire seasons see, including 28 of the last 60).

--Average daily ACE: 2.8228

--Maximum daily ACE: 11.22 (9/15, with Igor, Julia, and Karl all active)

--Minimum daily ACE: 0 (five days: 9/5, 9/26-9/28, and 9/30)

--Number of days total: 30

--Number of days with at least one active named storm: 25 (83.3% of total)

--Number of days with at least one storm at hurricane status: 16 (53.3%)

--Number of days with at least one storm at major hurricane status: 8 (26.7%)

--Number of days with multiple active named storms: 16 (53.3%)

--Number of days with multiple storms at hurricane status: 4 (13.3%)

--Number of days with multiple storms at major hurricane status: 2 (6.7%)

For more, er, exciting stats and facts, be sure to visit my blog. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
atmoaggie wrote:
"I personally think you guys are hanging your "Nicole's moisture" hat on what is simply convergence, bringing very high moisture totals to the frontal boundary, nothingmore. This front is doing just that (heck, check out PA's TPW 2 days before Nicole got into the mix)".


Agreed. This is the ILM AFD from last Sunday, way b4 TD16 was anywhere near the area.

161
FXUS62 KILM 270710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

SYNOPSIS

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK ALONG FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...SETTING UP A DRY WEEKEND.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

AS OF 9:15 PM SATURDAY...WAVES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A STRONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED
ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. A LOOK AT THE BIGGER
PICTURE...REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS...PLUS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...SHOW THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS A NEAR CERTAINTY NO
MATTER WHERE YOU MAY BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. SO...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL...80 PERCENT
AND GREATER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH HAVE A COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST EARLY TUE
BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA. 5H TROF AXIS REMAINS TO THE
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE THE FRONT.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE
REGION WHILE KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY BERMUDA HIGH
WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD UNSETTLED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIP BOTH DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1407. xcool
Barefootontherocks .me too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Laughed so hard I pulled out my IV. Just wait, Geoff!! I am sitting here waiting for the 11PM to see if they elongate the AOI's. Something you might consider by the way.


Next TWO comes out at 2:00 a.m. Elongate that you old fool:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1405. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
How many pills did it take to elongate the AOI?
(sry, y'all, it was there!)


Well actually atmo, being part Italian, I don't need the pills.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
Barefootontherocks /new orleansss


I love your city.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Thanks, I needed that.
But I re-ported you anyway.
heheheheh


The two of your posts have caused me a ton of clean up over here. Rum and diet coke, through the nose, on the screen of my computer. Thanks, guys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

yes because that location is east of front.
i know but Ike had the front dropping down to the northern part of Cuba by Tuesday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
tru but old is a given, he just seems to run out of pep at such a late hour


Ok, now you are just stating old age.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, you me hunker, I don't like to get in arguments. (chuckle)
i know, the ooxygen is limited and when the damn thing starts beeping its a pain in the a$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1399. pottery
Quoting atmoaggie:
How many pills did it take to elongate the AOI?
(sry, y'all, it was there!)

you beat me, and a lot of others, to it......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
7 day outlook for central Palm Beach County

Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming light and variable.

Saturday
Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday
Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Breezy. Lows 73 to 77. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday
Partly sunny with scattered showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Breezy. Lows 75 to 79. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy. Lows 77 to 81. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 79. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday
Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.


yes because that location is east of front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting doorman79:


True, but thats part of being 180.
tru but old is a given, he just seems to run out of pep at such a late hour
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
How many pills did it take to elongate the AOI?
(sry, y'all, it was there!)


yea u right lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1395. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
have you become so lame that you are requiring others to defend you :)


Ah, you me hunker, I don't like to get in arguments. (chuckle)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1394. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Laughed so hard I pulled out my IV. Just wait, Geoff!! I am sitting here waiting for the 11PM to see if they elongate the AOI's. Something you might consider by the way.

HAHAHAHAHAHHHH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
How many pills did it take to elongate the AOI?
(sry, y'all, it was there!)
till all the air was out of the pump...Groth gave it everything he had
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
touche...but notice i said lame, not old


True, but thats part of being 180.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1391. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
what is this?

A Gigantic vortex??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

UH OH!!!


My bad... forgot it was only an insult the other way around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Laughed so hard I pulled out my IV. Just wait, Geoff!! I am sitting here waiting for the 11PM to see if they elongate the AOI's. Something you might consider by the way.
How many pills did it take to elongate the AOI?
(sry, y'all, it was there!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. xcool
ilove hothot weatherrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hate Cold weather......when I grow up I am moving to Florida!!


Where u from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1385. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummm ok Shep

UH OH!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy .i'm nott ready for noo dam cold air


Hate Cold weather......when I grow up I am moving to Florida!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting doorman79:


Hey, hey

Wait till you are 180 lol
touche...but notice i said lame, not old
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1382. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes. IV is in and teeth are in the glass.


Laughed so hard I pulled out my IV. Just wait, Geoff!! I am sitting here waiting for the 11PM to see if they elongate the AOI's. Something you might consider by the way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1381. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Don't worry, pot. The evening is young and your not.

Thanks, I needed that.
But I re-ported you anyway.
heheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1380. Seastep
Quoting fldude99:
So is the 2010 season done...kaput?


No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DarIvy959810:

NO


How so? Is there anything on the horizon? I feel the cooldown and IMO its over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what is this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
have you become so lame that you are requiring others to defend you :)


Hey, hey

Wait till you are 180 lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneBoz:
Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: June - July



Thanks for posting those! Interesting look at the season....so far
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DarIvy959810:

NO
but it must be, it will be October 1st in a hour or so and nothing forms after October 1...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1374. xcool
Barefootontherocks /new orleansss
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I feel so left out.
I have not been insulted for the entire evening.


Ummm ok Shep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1423 - 1373

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.