Nicole's precursor moisture dumping epic rains on North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2010

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The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, is here, but not for long. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite imagery show that the storm is being stretched along a north-south axis as it gets absorbed into a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast. A separate extratropical storm is developing along a stalled-out front along the coast of South and North Carolina, and much of Nicole's moisture and energy will begin feeding into this new storm today and Thursday, leading to the demise of Nicole by Thursday. Nicole continues to dump torrential rains on Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the western Bahamas as it tracks steadily north-northeastwards up the U.S. East Coast. Some rain amounts from Nicole since yesterday morning include 9.14" at Plantation Key, FL and 8.47" at Irwindale in western Jamaica. In Southeast Florida, radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 4 - 10" are common across the coast (Figure 1.)

Surface observations don't show any winds in excess of 25 mph near the center of Nicole, and the strongest winds are located several hundred miles southeast of the center. Some of the stronger winds measured today were at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba (39 mph, gusting to 53 mph) and Cayman Brac Island in the Grand Caymans (33 mph, gusting to 43 mph).


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida. Nicole has brought over ten inches of rain to the Middle and Upper Keys.

Extreme rainfall for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the precursor moisture from Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC has measured 15.83 inches of rain over the past three days, as of 4pm EDT. This is the city's second highest 3-day total in history, behind the 19.06" that fell in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. The non-tropical low pressure system developing along the South Carolina/North Carolina coast today will move northwards, giving North and South Carolina an additional blast of heavy rain tonight, which will be followed by more heavy rain from Nicole (or Nicole's remains) Thursday morning. By the time the rains from Nicole finally clear the area Thursday afternoon, an extra 5 - 10 inches will have fallen, and Wilmington will be looking at a 4-day rainfall total of 20 - 25 inches, the highest in recorded history there. Severe and damaging flooding is likely today and tomorrow from the record rains. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Saturday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of eight inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is generating a modest amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has some dry air to the northwest of it that is interfering with development. None of the models develop this disturbance, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The wave is headed into a region of higher wind shear, and is not likely to develop.

Another tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is more of a threat. This wave is currently moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and is generating a large area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is 10 - 20 knots over the wave, and shear is forecast to decline by late this week. The latest 2am EDT runs of the NOGAPS and GFS models show some slow development of the wave late this week, and the storm is forecast to pass near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

Disturbed weather will continue in the Western Caribbean for at least the next ten days, and the NOGAPS and GFS models continue to predict that the region could spawn a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now. However, the models are being less aggressive about such a development than in yesterday's runs, and the models have not been consistent about the timing or location of such a storm.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherwart:
My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.


Niiice, Ike. I'll be in the low 60s Sunday and Monday. I'll take it.


I won't. I hate the cold. :(

I don't like summer either, but...
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My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.


Niiice, Ike. I'll be in the low 60s Sunday and Monday. I'll take it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
BTW, we have Invest 97L.


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1051. IKE
Florida panhandle extended....

THE SILVER LINING OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT DESPITE THE VERY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...THE OVERALL IMPACT FOR OUR WEATHER IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. STILL GOING WITH A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD. DESPITE THE
NEARBY UPPER LOW...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL SIMPLY BE TOO
DRY...AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE GRIDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECASTS WILL BE THE DEGREE TO
WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED DURING MUCH OF SEPTEMBER.
AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS REACHING
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S!!!. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...EVEN THE
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 850MB TEMPS FORECAST
BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM TO DROP BELOW 10C...WHICH EVEN WITH GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80.
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. GUESS
SUMMER HAD TO END SOMETIME.
..............................................

My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.
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Where is this crazy ass trough gonna be in 6-7 days? I'm liking it, but I worry it'll retreat north and leave SW Florida holding the bag.
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Whoa. Look at that trof and the ridge building in behind it. I'm amazed!

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Quoting sunlinepr:

My model says:
Plonto velan OTTO hulacan....
OTTO hulacan....


Wow...50's era ethnic stereotyping "humor" on WU. How quaint!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13462
Good morning night shift. I've been totally out of touch for 36 hours. No internet, no TV and a houseful of cable guys.

Oh, and no rain on my west central Florida home. Guess I'm in a dry slot, so where's the beef with this system?
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Link

floater re-assigned to nicole (al 16)

she has hardly moved over the past 12 hours

Link

eastern u.s. overview from noaa
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't feed the trolls. That's JFV.


Hey Kori....we are doing Coast to Coast AM here on the weather Blog.....how are you??
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BTW, we have Invest 97L.
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Quoting mara0921:


Um.. Your comment is borderline insane. Have you ever actually experienced a hurricane. I have, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, Frances, Irene. I am VERY thankful we have been spared. We are in very rough economic times and your hoping for devestation ? Death ? What is wrong with you.


Don't feed the trolls. That's JFV.
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1042. flsky
Quoting robert88:
""

This is very sad. I don't know how to "quote" this w/o the whole thing showing again. Sorry.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1915
Link

24 hr loop over eastern u.s.

so here it is to copy and paste

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_east_common /24h/


sorry link would not work when i pasted it
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1032. BreadandCircuses

Well ... I had Vladimir Putin over to the house for Sunday dinner last week !


Putin gives a great foot massage I hear...lol
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be careful in va/md big disturbance heading your way

000
WFUS51 KLWX 300757
TORLWX
MDC003-009-037-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0020.100930T0757Z-100930T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
EASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 430 AM EDT

* AT 355 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...MOVING NORTH
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLLYWOOD...
CHESAPEAKE BEACH...
NORTH BEACH...
SHADY SIDE...
SHERIDAN POINT...
PRINCE FREDERICK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 7638 3815 7648 3817 7653 3822 7659
3870 7668 3885 7666 3884 7648 3875 7652
3866 7652 3862 7650 3853 7650 3848 7648
3840 7639 3832 7640 3832 7638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 175DEG 30KT 3862 7656 3852 7657
3829 7653

$$

GMS

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000
WGUS52 KILM 300754
FFWILM
NCC017-019-047-129-141-301200-
/O.EXT.KILM.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100930T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT

* AT 350 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS
ROAD CLOSURES THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA DUE TO HIGH WATER...AS
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MALPASS
CORNER...TOPSAIL BEACH...WARDS CORNER...COUNCIL...SCOTTS
HILL...WILLARD...ROCKY POINT...PENDERLEA...MAPLE HILL...
HAMPSTEAD...RIEGELWOOD...DELCO...CASTLE HAYNE... BURGAW...
ELIZABETHTOWN AND LAKE WACCAMAW

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 20 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY 6
AM...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3442 7760 3442 7755 3420 7781 3384 7797
3387 7802 3391 7794 3406 7790 3419 7796
3389 7802 3392 7824 3388 7845 3485 7867
3483 7846 3457 7826 3473 7811 3473 7769
3443 7752

$$

RAS



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1035. JLPR2
An eye! XD LOL!


Well, I'm out, night/morning all!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
dvorak floater loop (td16)

Link
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1032. BreadandCircuses

Well ... I had Vladimir Putin over to the house for Sunday dinner last week !
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""
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""
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TORNADO WARNING
NCC013-095-187-300700-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0007.100930T0635Z-100930T0700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN HYDE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 233 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER PUNGO LAKE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLYMOUTH...
MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTER OF PHELPS LAKE...
ROPER...SCUPPERNONG...
PLEASANT GROVE...MACKEYS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
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Gusts to 64 mph in Georgetown, SC: 1:55 AM 73.4 °F 73.4 °F 100% 29.33 in 2.5 miles SE 36.8 mph 64.4 mph 0.08 in Rain Rain METAR KGGE 300555Z AUTO 14032G56KT 2 1/2SM RA 23/23 A2933 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V3 P0008

Cape lookout NC had a gust of 47kts
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Quoting JLPR2:
Interesting our two disturbances are linking up.



WE ALL DOOM!!
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Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-ft.html
Link




newest frame now shows the powerful high cloud stacks coming ashore....hold on folks in the carolinas' the ride is now gonna get bumpy....

notice 5:45 utc to 22:15 utc shows the low pressure appears to be completely stationary by ft. lauderdale/miami. it appears to slightly slide east but does not appear to move significantly north.
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1024. JLPR2
Interesting our two disturbances are linking up.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
1023. JLPR2
EURO develops the CATL disturbance at 72hrs


And it slams into PR at 96hrs


And then into DR at 120hrs


ECMWF is being bad with the islands... :S
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
1021. flsky
Quoting Bayside:
Woke up for the 1am tonado warning in SE VA. Lots of rain coming down for quite a while. With two boats tied up behind the house I hate storms with winds. Bet im the only one in the neighborhood up because of the warning, but guarantee I'm the only one looking like a dork with my headflashlight on or near me just in case. But I have kids that I love!

It pays to be a dork sometimes!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1915
Quoting TropicalInstigation:
Good evening/morning, all! Well, unfortunately speaking here, TS Nicole ended up being yet another carbon copy of what TS Bonnie was down here, a couple of months ago. Screw my horrific luck in this regard. We need a serious storm to hit SF. I'm still holding onto hope, ^_^. If not, the season will end and SF will be spared for yet another year, -______-.


Um.. Your comment is borderline insane. Have you ever actually experienced a hurricane. I have, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, Frances, Irene. I am VERY thankful we have been spared. We are in very rough economic times and your hoping for devestation ? Death ? What is wrong with you.
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1018. vis0
1 reminder for NE residents, 1 Questions for Dr. Jeff Masters

1- Clean your gutters In the NE as trees still have so many leaves sustained, not just gust above tropical force winds will blow many leaves, clean off.

2- Has there ever been storm with its TS status recalled. State this as in my book, 2 TS in 2010 where very suspect as to being tropical storms and wonder if their is a time limit for demoting their status.

State this as since the 1970s i've enjoyed keeping up with the Tropical Season predictions and stats. Yet notice certain years the requirements for TS status though not changed on paper is changed to fit the OFFICIAL predictions. Example, 2 years in the 1990s, 8 or less TS OFFICIALLY predicted, so when a few TDs seemed to become TS they where NOT called TS as the TS count would then go over 8 or higher. i know of 2 TD would've been given TS status 'cause an uncle (military guy very trustable & scientifically worthy) that worked on ships in the Atlantic measured sustained winds above 50, NOT 39 but 50 with TS characteristics, yet both times, OFFICIAL records stated they weren't TS and wouldn't accept ship reports though his reports have been accepted before & after. This year i say 2, others say as much as 4 so called TS seemed not to reach true TS status. I think since the OFFICIAL predictions of 22-26 (even 28) TS** is influencing that certain border line TD be categorized as TS.



**(BTW stated that a bit over half the official predictions or 12-16 TS. This is due to the false reading created by "ml-ds" i had set up in Puerto Rico, explanation of what i call an "ml-d" on my "vis0" blog) Therefore i'm not affected by the count ...so far.
When in NYC ml-d AOI
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1017. Bayside
Woke up for the 1am tonado warning in SE VA. Lots of rain coming down for quite a while. With two boats tied up behind the house I hate storms with winds. Bet im the only one in the neighborhood up because of the warning, but guarantee I'm the only one looking like a dork with my headflashlight on or near me just in case. But I have kids that I love!
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in the past 2-3 sat scans the convection is exploding northward in the track from ft. lauderdale. the low appears to be stationary off the fla coast for several hours. it's all heading north and is going to be squeezed like a sponge over the states and will probably bring mass voracity to virginia and the carolinas'.
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1015. xcool
hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Not good to be here during storm winds


Capilano Suspension Bridge
Canada (Now on Yahoo)


Originally built in 1889, this simple suspension footbridge surrounded by an evergreen forest is very high, fairly narrow, and extremely shaky—the cedar planks bounce on their steel cables as you walk across them. If the bridge doesn’t scare you, wait until the spring of 2011; the Cliffhanger attraction will allow visitors to climb across a series of suspended walkways attached to a cliff.
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Found out what's wrong.... the global sat image is 2 hrs behind the Carib. one.....

Quoting JLPR2:

Two hours older than this one.
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1012. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Thanks, something wrong with my link....
Anyhow, too bad, cause it looks stronger...
and looks like we're going to be affected at least by lot of rain......



Rains seems like a sure bet.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
Thanks, something wrong with my link....
Anyhow, too bad, cause it looks stronger...
and looks like we're going to be affected at least by lot of rain......

Quoting JLPR2:

Two hours older than this one.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Good morning!!

Hope it clears out and you guys have a great time!!


Thanks Trauma! All of the forecasts I can find show pleasant weather... If it holds through tomorrow morning's NWS re-evaluation of the conditions, we should be set for an awesome trip!

Good luck to all those in Jamaica, Central Cuba and North/South Carolina where the rain was seen earlier making a deposit for an apartment... I guess it's staying for a while.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 300534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...LOCATED
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...AND WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN
SQUALLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting Bahamagal:
Grand Bahama here...I think this is my first post ever so please take it easy on me. Been lurking here for years and appreciate all the good info. Just because what was Nicole is no longer tropical or threatening Florida does not mean she is not impacting someone else. TWC and Florida news are completely ignoring any Bahamas threat. We feel for our Caribbean neighbors especially Jamaica and Cuba. We are only getting a lot of rain and expecting a great deal more through the night.

I think we will be fine but we will never forget Wilma, which exited the Florida east coast with the proclamation that it was exiting Florida and heading out into the Atlantic. All those TV and radio weather people (including local ones) forgot there was a small island in her path and it was not even widely known for days what devastation she caused on our island in terms of storm surge. I was listening to the local radio and hearing the pleas of people (some who I knew) on our SW coast who had no warning and were trapped in the crawl spaces of their homes due to a 10-15 foot storm surge. Wilma hit us during daylight; one life was lost, a small child...if it had been night, many more lives would surely have been lost. No one was prepared for that surge, and there were no warnings or evacuation orders issued.

I know what a serious hurricane is, having spent over 36 hours in Frances, in West End, Grand Bahama including 12 hours in the eye in 2004. I questioned my sanity especially during the terrifying backside of that storm. Three weeks later, when Jeanne did that crazy loop de loop, I was so worn out from no power, no water, no phone and forget about cable...I made sure I had food for my dogs, water for us all, and that was it. No energy left to be scared, we were so worn down. I watched the ocean in my yard and as we were moving all the furniture in the lower level of the house, thankfully it receded just before it entered the house. It was an amazing and sobering sight to see whitecaps in our back yard.

All told we had no power for eight weeks. No water for five weeks. Cable and phone took 10-12 weeks. You have not survived a hurricane until you have to bathe in the sea, and take a precious gallon of fresh water to rinse the salt off. Or bathe night after night in an inch of tepid water in your tub, forget about washing your hair. Or have to dip 5 gallon buckets of salt water from the canal to flush the toilet. Several times a day. Or try to wash your clothes in an Igloo cooler by hand with none of the tools necessary. I literally cried the first time I tried that. After the first ten days a friend in Florida shipped us over a 5KW generator and I cried again. None to be had here. Finally we could have a little light and run our fridge and a fan. The microwave for heating up food. We were so happy for those small things! Looking back, I don't know how we made it through those long months but we did and were so grateful for things we normally take for granted. I remember driving home from Freeport to West End one evening and seeing a major caravan of power trucks from Jamaica and S. Carolina leaving the harbour ...me and dozens of other drivers pulled over, blew our horns and expressed our thanks best we could to these folks come to help us. That was the coolest sight ever!

Never want to go through that again. Anyone who thinks a hurricane is exciting in any way must never have been terrified during one nor suffered through the aftermath.

Everything is relative. People impacted by Katrina or Andrew could tell even worse stories than mine, by far. I'm still here having learned some hellacious lessons in 2004-2005.

I live on an island. Evacuation is simply not an option for the majority of residents, including those of us whose jobs require us to be here. We simply have to stay put and stay as safe as we can.

Hoping for no more tropical storms or hurricanes to impact anyone the rest of this season.

Thanks again for all the great info over the years.









Your post made my heart want to reach out to you!

This is exactly what happened here, in North Carolina, after Fran and then again after Floyd. I live out in the country so I understood why they had to get the power on in the cities, but carrying water day after day for a month, just... was depressing.

I had to use rain water off my roof to wash my clothes and then I used the soapy water to flush the toilet. One place within twenty miles of me had drinkable water so I would take my jugs every day to get water for the kids and dogs.

And don't forget the heat after a topical system! The heat during the day and then the bugs at night.

So far I've lucked out with this system and I've only gotten 4.8 inches of rain. My area can handle around 9 inches and then we start flooding.

The power is still on but I fully expect it to go out because of trees falling over the lines.

Oh, and if anyone is new to NC and this is your first storm--wear boots when walking outside! Do not pick up any crooked sticks. Also, if you have water in you yard use a flash light to look under your sinks where the pipes come into the house.
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1007. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:

Two hours older than this one.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
at #952. Bahamagal

Great post. My sister/b-i-l could have written that. They were cops in Grand Cayman during Ivan. Their house was of block & concrete, even interior walls. No matter, Ivan broke in. I don't think they slept for 3 months. She's the most fearless person I've known, but Ivan very nearly broke her in those godawful 18 hours.

This current event is no joke. Good luck to all in it's path. I'm in it too.
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1005. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


That looks bad for the NE Caribbean :S
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.