TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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2535. FerretsCare
9:38 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
WoW that image is crazy!
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
2534. utilaeastwind
2:35 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
It seems the TD is riding on the edge of a large converging low and is moving southward as this low closes.

Satellite observations show that a low located north east of Grand Cayman 20N 80W travelling to 17N 82.5W is slowly closing.

I think that in this area we will see some real action in the coming days.
Member Since: October 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
2533. surfmom
2:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Remember you said that :)
how could I forget with you around to poke me? : )
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
2532. WxBlogAddict
2:16 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting MahFL:


In JAX they drive at 75 mph.


No kidding! And 5 feet or less from the rear bumper of the car in front.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
2531. MZT
2:12 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Some really sloppy lanfalling systems that did get names:

Erin


Allison
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
2530. Neapolitan
2:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
NEW BLOG, for those who haven't noticed yet...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
2529. Neapolitan
2:09 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
2528. reedzone
2:08 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Actually, by clicking the last frame, the HWRF jumped slightly west.. Not by much though.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
2527. 7544
2:07 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
calling for winds to reach 40 mph latter this evening in so fla it hasnt got there yet lol 200+ miles to the south stay tuned
if this deos make it to ts things will change fast we all know how all the systems surpise us this year so far
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
2526. barotropic
2:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Photobucket


Go look at cuban radar...there is no spin at all in your location and with the convection there, you should see the spin if it is the center. There is no evidence of a circulation at "your spot" on the SW floater, the Vis floater or any of the others. While I agree that the structure looks best with that as center.....and maybe the center "should" be there.....its not or at least one has n ot developed there yet. Yours is the "obvious" should be center...I am 1000 percent sure that "structure has been noted as a center" by the nhc, but the fact is one is not there meaning E - W - N -S closed wind circulation.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
2525. reedzone
2:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting HCW:


Do you mean East ?



Both west and east, we're both wrong.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
2524. reedzone
2:05 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If by west you mean east...

Then yeah.


Nope we are both wrong, some shifted east and some shifted west. The GFS ensemble runs shifted west, one of the Bams and HWRF shifted slightly east.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
2523. katadman
2:04 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Many here on the blog appear to not pay any attention at all to what the NHC has to say. Oh, well, it is that way with every system every year. They have this one nailed pretty well. It is expected to become a tropical storm prior to the center reaching So. Florida. It is far too broad to gain a whole lot of organization before rolling across the peninsula. Nicole will strengthen somewhat more as it re-approaches the mainland and begins transforming to a baroclinic system. We have so many here that trash the NHC and make such moronic claims that it really is amusing.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
2522. weatherwatcher12
2:00 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you everyone for their replies. I was getting very worried because of course their phones are off.

Is this the flight? If it is NMIA says it's delayed:

CAYMAN AIRWAYS - KX600 fr GRAND CAYMAN
[08:00 am]Delayed[9]
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
2521. Floodman
1:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting leelee75k:
Why do people drive 10mph in light rain?
More danger from bad drivers today than there is from TD16 in South Florida.


Try here in DFW...it rains and they do 90mph...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2520. kimoskee
1:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
2519. weatherwatcher12
1:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting surferjoe5899:
"rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible over portions of extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. These rains could cause life-threatening floods and mud slides."

Are they serious? First off you need dirt, not sand, to have a mud slide. Second you need elevation, something we don't have in South Florida. Could I get a raise of hands from everyone that has heard of a mudslide in "extreme south Florida or the Florida Keys"? I don't know, maybe they were counting Mt. Trashmore?

I think that was read wrong, that was for Cuba and Jamaica, "ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES."
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
2518. stormwatcherCI
1:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Thank you everyone for their replies. I was getting very worried because of course their phones are off.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
2517. Stormchaser2007
1:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
2516. jasoniscoolman2010xo
1:57 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Newport/Morehead, NC Radar up to 4 inches of rain in two hours..wow..
Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
2515. surferjoe5899
1:57 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
"rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible over portions of extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. These rains could cause life-threatening floods and mud slides."

Are they serious? First off you need dirt, not sand, to have a mud slide. Second you need elevation, something we don't have in South Florida. Could I get a raise of hands from everyone that has heard of a mudslide in "extreme south Florida or the Florida Keys"? I don't know, maybe they were counting Mt. Trashmore?
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
2514. cat5hurricane
1:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting OctaviaStreet:


While you're in the shed, if you come across any LED Christmas lights, take them indoors and bunch them in a suitably sized glass bowl or casserole dish. They take very little power to run, of course, would run for a good long time off one of those portable power things (mine are charging to top up as we speak)--and, important in an area like ours, LEDs don't add heat to the house. I have the big-bulbed ones strung around the garage so I can see where I'm going, power or no power--the main light switch was co-opted for a garage door opener which is inoperative at the moment. So I leave the Christmas lights on all the time, mostly so they keep me from falling over one of the cats.
Good idea...I'm gonna have to try that!! Gotta love them big-bulbed lights too. lol
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2513. HurricaneKing
1:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting divdog:
Most of the lobsided mess is going to miss florida. this things looks terrible for a tropical depression.


Honestly I dont think its so lopsided anymore. I think the center is right in that blowup of convection over Cuba. Well toward the western side of it but more in it than the NHC has it.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
2512. HCW
1:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2010 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 24:02:31 N Lon : 81:07:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.0 3.2
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
2511. cat5hurricane
1:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2510. divdog
1:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting HCW:


Do you mean East ?

I was wondering the same thing .. center relocated east .. storm is moving nne .. where is the west in that.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2509. OctaviaStreet
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
That's great!

I've been turning stuff upside down in the shed that I haven't used in years...just trying to find whatever can help.

Never hurts to be prepared!


While you're in the shed, if you come across any LED Christmas lights, take them indoors and bunch them in a suitably sized glass bowl or casserole dish. They take very little power to run, of course, would run for a good long time off one of those portable power things (mine are charging to top up as we speak)--and, important in an area like ours, LEDs don't add heat to the house. I have the big-bulbed ones strung around the garage so I can see where I'm going, power or no power--the main light switch was co-opted for a garage door opener which is inoperative at the moment. So I leave the Christmas lights on all the time, mostly so they keep me from falling over one of the cats.
Member Since: July 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
2508. HurricaneGeek
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Link
Kingston Conditions.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
2507. Stormchaser2007
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Models have shifted west... again..



If by west you mean east...

Then yeah.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
2506. jasoniscoolman2010xo
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
lots of rain coming up to the east coast,....someone will get over 10 inches of rain.
Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
2505. MahFL
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Models have shifted west... again..



Show us a link please, the models I saw were all east.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3680
2504. HurricaneGeek
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. can you please give me an update on conditions in Jamaica ? My son and his girlfriend flew out from Cayman around 7:30 EST to Kingston and I am getting kind of worried.


Here are the current conditions in Kingston.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
2503. divdog
1:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Models have shifted west... again..

Most of the lobsided mess is going to miss florida. this things looks terrible for a tropical depression.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2502. HCW
1:52 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
Models have shifted west... again..



Do you mean East ?

Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
2501. sporteguy03
1:52 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting IKE:
TWC showing the opening bell on Wall Street. Why? What happened to...The Weather Channel? If I want business news I'll switch to CNBC.


At least you are loyal to NBC.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5395
2500. weatherwatcher12
1:51 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. can you please give me an update on conditions in Jamaica ? My son and his girlfriend flew out from Cayman around 7:30 EST to Kingston and I am getting kind of worried.

Don't worry the man from the Civil aviation organization says that landing conditions should be ok.
The rain has stopped for now, but is expected to pick up again later.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
2499. 7544
1:51 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
soory to say this thing is really tring to and get named at this hour deep conv forming around and filling in on the west side of the center now . first time we seen this happen in hours . may make it by 11 am imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
2498. stormwatcherCI
1:50 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:
How does the 5-gallon bucket work to measure rain?
Good morning. can you please give me an update on conditions in Jamaica ? My son and his girlfriend flew out from Cayman around 7:30 EST to Kingston and I am getting kind of worried.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
2497. KittieCane
1:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting IKE:
TWC showing the opening bell on Wall Street. Why? What happened to...The Weather Channel? If I want business news I'll switch to CNBC.




I tuned in last night to see what kind of coverage they had, and they were showing a NBC News story about the Grand Ol Oprey. I kept waiting to see the WEATHER angle, there was none. SAD
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
2496. reedzone
1:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Models have shifted west... again..

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7415
2495. MahFL
1:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting leelee75k:
Why do people drive 10mph in light rain?
More danger from bad drivers today than there is from TD16 in South Florida.


In JAX they drive at 75 mph.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3680
2494. nolesjeff
1:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting IKE:
TWC showing the opening bell on Wall Street. Why? What happened to...The Weather Channel? If I want business news I'll switch to CNBC.


3 letters, NBC wake up with al.They wonder why their ratings are tanking
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
2493. MZT
1:47 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
This circulation is so broad and messy that even if classified, the definition of "landfall" is kind of spurious. The frontal boundary will be carrying pleny of moisture before and after.

Wonder if Dr Masters will talk about the coming nor'easter. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are still cleaning up from Earl and Igor.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
2492. HurricaneKing
1:47 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see a lot of people tossing out the term baroclinic in regards to TD16, but from everything I can see, it's still barotropic, or--at worst--heading toward quasi-barotropicity. I could be mistaken, of course, but I believe we will see "Nicole" out of this sometime today...


I agree. You actually see storms like this all the time in the west pacific. Only thing is they normally wait longer to even start calling it more than invest than we do over here. They normally wait till it starts looking like a regular tropical depression or storm. (Yes I do check the satellites for pretty much every invest world wide as they are invested.)
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
2491. largeeyes
1:47 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
On the stupid driver topic, what's up with flashers? Idiot driving in the rain yesterday with flashers on....turn your headlights on and be done with it, fool. /rant
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
2490. largeeyes
1:46 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...NEW BERN...
HAVELOCK...VANCEBORO...ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...
MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...MOREHEAD CITY...
BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...JACKSONVILLE...
KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
411 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
16 ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
35 MPH TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS...SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
HIGHER WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND THE BEACH AREAS OF
CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND AREAS OF CRAVEN...PAMLICO
BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE AND MAINLAND DARE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
2489. TropicalMan2010
1:46 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
i'll tell u one thing it isn't extra-tropical whoever is saying you are way off,its tropical still
Member Since: September 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
2488. cat5hurricane
1:45 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting OctaviaStreet:


Yep, can see the red and orange waxing a bit larger and deeper in color, strolling towards us, whistling, hands in pockets. Should start here in about half an hour.

Finally got smart this morning, dug out a remote-op thingie for outdoor Christmas lights, plugged it in, and hooked up two sump pumps to it. Now all I have to do is go to the window and click to turn the pumps on and off. Yesss!
That's great!

I've been turning stuff upside down in the shed (conduit pipes for draining, water barrels, etc.) that I haven't used in years...just trying to find whatever can help.

Never hurts to be prepared!
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2487. Neapolitan
1:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
I see a lot of people tossing out the term baroclinic in regards to TD16, but from everything I can see, it's still barotropic, or--at worst--heading toward quasi-barotropicity. I could be mistaken, of course, but I believe we will see "Nicole" out of this sometime today...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
2486. divinginjupiter
1:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Quoting 7544:
ok if thats the center then conv is building on the west side now and still 200 + miles from so fla looks like its trying to organize a little better at this hour


I agree, I think it's finally starting to get together.
Member Since: December 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
2485. kimoskee
1:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
How does the 5-gallon bucket work to measure rain?
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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