TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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Have a nice day Baha I mean that. That's what makes the world go round different points of view, and i say on this one I'm in the minority.
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Good Morning from Boca Raton, FL. I'm wearing my helmet, but nothing of note here. We had a couple of good squalls overnight and some light to moderate heavy rain right now. I expect we should pick up some wind att some point here... looks like the easterly track will keep the worst of it out over the ocean.
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Hey, Ike. Slept in this morning, I see.... lol

I'm out for now. If I can get on when I get to work today, I'll check in after 7 a.m. EDT.... Have a great one, and stay safe, all in the storm area!
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But gordy, under the earlier non-named regime, noteworthy storms "got" a name.... so they were set apart. Once all storms were named, something needed to be done to separate the "bad" ones from the rank and file.

BTW, the one local PWS currently on line is showing pressure down to 1000 mb...
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2130. IKE
Miami, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 5 min 26 sec ago
Light Rain
75 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.56 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
............................................

Key West, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 26 min 58 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
79 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.48 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 2800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 0 ft
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Neapolitan your probably right if it makes some people happy what do I care. m\My point if I have one is you were able to correct the Doc earlier and that storm didn't have a name,1900,1926, 1928and 1933 none had names but I doubt anyone who knows the slightest about storms can't remember them. Sorry I just equate retired names to sport athletes so that's what makes the world go around, just seems to trivialize tropical systems to me.
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Boy, whoever said spelling doesn't matter never worked with HTML.... lol
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View centred over New Providence. U can see we are in the clear for a little bit...



View centred over JA. U can see they r not....



Caymans also getting a blast.

I better get going. If I can get on the road while we're still in that lull, I may actually have reasonable driving conditions on the way to work. [trying not to think about the flooded roadways...]
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Quoting roleli:
In Kingston Jamaica, starting about 1 hour ago we had a serious thunderstorm, accompanied by heavy rain. Conditions have settled down with just light rain.

see..http://metservice.gov.jm/radarpage2.asp
doesn't look like that cloud of heavy weather is moving away from JA anytime soon...
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Baha if i had kids today I tell them sleep in rug rats myself.
I wish the government would call off school today [I don't think they will] because the traffic is going to be a mess, and with school closed the volume would decrease by as much as 1/3....

Looked outside a minute ago while getting breakfast, and it looked like wind from the south blowing steady as much as 15 kts.... now it's varying between still and gusts to that. Much cooler than Monday a.m.....
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2123. roleli
In Kingston Jamaica, starting about 1 hour ago we had a serious thunderstorm, accompanied by heavy rain. Conditions have settled down with just light rain.

see..http://metservice.gov.jm/radarpage2.asp
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Neapolitan exactly my point I am so tired of every time there is a puff of wind people rolling out the it reminds me of this storm track when Nicole was never going to be a Wilma. I know that is now 20/20 hindsight. But it seems to have over and under hype aspects to me. And like I said draw a line 100 -200 dead 1 billion/100 billion, seems arbitrary to me having to ask for something when my love one or house is destroyed. God i hate this phrase "I'm just saying" there you go stick a fork in me I'm done.


Well, there are times a name is requested for retirement, and even makes the short list, but just doesn't get enough votes in the final tally to be taken from the six-year mix. From what I can gather, though, the folks at the spring meeting doing the voting really do try their best to strike the right balance. And FWIW, while there may be a few retired names some disagree with, most of them seem pretty fitting: Andrew, Donna, Allan, Charley, Mitch, Katrina, and so on.

Anyway, tor reference--that is, comparison with the 12z models out later this morning--here are the 00z runs on select models:

--CMC shows a second system forming in the western Caribbean and following a very similar path as TD 16, being off the coast of Miami on Monday morning. Meanwhile, a stronger storm passes through the Windward Islands on Monday night.

--GFS has a western Caribbean system forming as well, though struggling to develop as it moves to the NNE farther offshore Miami next Wednesday.

--NGP develops a western Caribbean system that's sort of stuck in its birthplace for several days, finally becoming a bit stronger on Tuesday, while a growing system skirts just north of Puerto Rico on that same day.

--ECMWF shows a system slowly developing in the central Caribbean by the early to mid part of next week.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
Baha if i had kids today I tell them sleep in rug rats myself.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Good morning and good night. lol

It's 4:30 and I need sleep.


With all the excitement in the tropics....how can you sleep??
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Kori. I'm looking at the multiple vortices and thinking this is what the GFS was trying to get at on the weekend with the multiple systems one right after the other.


Morning!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Mornin Kori!


Good morning and good night. lol

It's 4:30 and I need sleep.
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Stewart makes it sound like we could have a renaming by 8 a.m. ....

Currently windy and raining here, just now very heavily.

Lots of pple won't want to get out of bed today.... me included...
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Neapolitan exactly my point I am so tired of every time there is a puff of wind people rolling out the it reminds me of this storm track when Nicole was never going to be a Wilma. I know that is now 20/20 hindsight. But it seems to have over and under hype aspects to me. And like I said draw a line 100 -200 dead 1 billion/100 billion, seems arbitrary to me having to ask for something when my love one or house is destroyed. God i hate this phrase "I'm just saying" there you go stick a fork in me I'm done.
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Morning Kori. I'm looking at the multiple vortices and thinking this is what the GFS was trying to get at on the weekend with the multiple systems one right after the other.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


If they didn't retire any names, we'd be stuck saying things like, "Remember Katrina? No, not that one; that was in 2005. The one that hit Houston. No, not the one in 2014; the other one that hit Houston, the second one. No, not the tropical storm, either; that was in 2022. The second Hurricane Katrina to hit Houston. Yeah, that one..." :-)


ROFL!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
5AM advisory out. No Nicole.


Mornin Kori!
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Looking at satellites did the eastern and central Atlantic get the memo on the Cape Verde season being over. I said I wouldn't post anymore on the Caribbean system until it got convection on all sides, so I'm sticking to my guns on that one. Even though I have the temptations"Ball of confusion'Link that's what is is today.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


If they didn't retire any names, we'd be stuck saying things like, "Remember Katrina? No, not that one; that was in 2005. The one that hit Houston. No, not the one in 2014; the other one that hit Houston, the second one. No, not the tropical storm, either; that was in 2022. The second Hurricane Katrina to hit Houston. Yeah, that one..." :-)


LMAO
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 290857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM
KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR
DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING
FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE
BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 23.3N 81.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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2107. Thaale
At this point - and as of the new 5AM advisory it's still TD16, not Nicole - what would be retired? The number 16?

Like a hotel without a 13th floor, in future years the 16th TD of the season would be dubbed TD17, etc.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Come on KM you know they are thinking about retiring td 16 as we speak. J/K It does make everyone feel better if their loved ones were killed by something significant. I don't think they should retire any names maybe people would pay more attention that way.


If they didn't retire any names, we'd be stuck saying things like, "Remember Katrina? No, not that one; that was in 2005. The one that hit Houston. No, not the one in 2014; the other one that hit Houston, the second one. No, not the tropical storm, either; that was in 2022. The second Hurricane Katrina to hit Houston. Yeah, that one..." :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
5AM advisory out. No Nicole.
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Quoting poknsnok:
noone posting models? must be nothing interesting down the road


No there is. Just all the model posters are asleep. If you must know, several global models predict tropical cyclogenesis in this part of the Caribbean again in about 4-7 days, and also hint at development near the northern Leeward Islands, likely from the EATL wave.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Come on KM you know they are thinking about retiring td 16 as we speak. J/K It does make everyone feel better if their loved ones were killed by something significant. I don't think they should retire any names maybe people would pay more attention that way.


True, I can understand that. But I believe that in the case of retirement, logic should trump emotion. Sure, a country can request retirement of a particular storm all they want, and indeed, that's their right. But it's absurd to think that those requests, unless they are obviously needed, will actually be granted.

Seriously, it's kind of like Hawaii and its request for the retirement of 2006's Ioke. What did Ioke do that was so notable? Slam Wake Island?

Ugh. Sorry. I just have a very big pet peeve when it comes to people wanting to retire storms needlessly.
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Observation Miami/Dade county is getting a lot of rain today maybe the kids will use boats to get home.
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noone posting models? must be nothing interesting down the road
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Come on KM you know they are thinking about retiring td 16 as we speak. J/K It does make everyone feel better if their loved ones were killed by something significant. I don't think they should retire any names maybe people would pay more attention that way.
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Quoting barotropic:


Korith....the pressure over 200 miles sw of td 16 is at 998mb....or near equal to the press with TD 16. Likewise 998 MB at the bouy well east of the Caymans...while TD 16 is now exiting N Cuba.....do you think this means...additional potential for development in the coming days down there -


I do. This is supported by the global models as well, which show another tropical cyclone drenching this area in the next 4-7 days.

EDIT to add: The area of convection east of the Windward Islands could perhaps serve to further lower the surface pressures in the western Caribbean, as it should make it there in about five days.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


lolno

Retirement should be reserved only for storms that actually warrant it. This does not. Every tropical cyclone is bad in some way. Are we going to retire one every time somebody dies, or when a particular community is flooded? I think not.


Korith....the pressure over 200 miles sw of td 16 is at 998mb....or near equal to the press with TD 16. Likewise 998 MB at the bouy well east of the Caymans...while TD 16 is now exiting N Cuba.....do you think this means...additional potential for development in the coming days down there -
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Ok LOTS Of tropical storm 39-43 mph surface winds recorded...i think Nicole must finally be here.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Boy as far as Jamaica and the Cayman islands are concerned can you retire a storm that never gets named.The water is ridiculous I imagine.


lolno

Retirement should be reserved only for storms that actually warrant it. This does not. Every tropical cyclone is bad in some way. Are we going to retire one every time somebody dies, or when a particular community is flooded? I think not.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
In my opinion, the biggest factor hindering this system, has been the lack of high pressure aloft. Now, as you can see below, this is starting to form.



What do you think, another low will try and develop in the next day or so down there??
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Boy as far as Jamaica and the Cayman islands are concerned can you retire a storm that never gets named.The water is ridiculous I imagine.
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Monsoon like rain continues to pour. It's 3:00am and the gully is singing.

Kingston 8, Jamaica
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In my opinion, the biggest factor hindering this system, has been the lack of high pressure aloft. Now, as you can see below, this is starting to form.

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Quoting barotropic:


LOL if you marked the center by pressure it would be 400 miles wide.

Now that we have one, that skater is about to pull in her arms, and when she does, it will be like magic.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:

I've got news for you, pressures are falling over the entire western Caribbean, at every buoy, and the wind is increasing at most.


LOL if you marked the center by pressure it would be 400 miles wide.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Pressures all thru the Keys are 29.50 or less and falling.

I've got news for you, pressures are falling over the entire western Caribbean, at every buoy, and the wind is increasing at most.
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Here in Pompano beach...just north of Lauderdale press is droping 1 mb per hour and now at 1001mb with heavy squalls.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Conditions at SMKF1 as of
(3:00 am EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 22 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.50 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 %uFFFDF
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 %uFFFDF
Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): 2.36 ft
Heat Index (HEAT): 82.2 %uFFFDF

On the reef, south of Marathon in the Keys.


That vortice I have been pointing out is just south of marathon between them and cuba moving north.......that may account for the rapid drop in pressure..... I am not saying it is 'the" center but one of many in a very large broad Low.
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Conditions at SMKF1 as of
(3:00 am EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 22 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.50 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 %uFFFDF
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 %uFFFDF
Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): 2.36 ft
Heat Index (HEAT): 82.2 %uFFFDF

On the reef, south of Marathon in the Keys.
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Quoting reedzone:
I see a nice circulation in convection just WNW of Jamaica. I feel a center relocation possibly coming..



Well - at this point the NHC doesn't see it that way. They just now moved the floater and took Jamaica and the area west of them completely off the floater, shifting the view more centered over the straits.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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