TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks, yeah just got that myself. Good thing too as we will likely have gusts to TS force throughout the day. Looks like another system may be trying to organize nearby.


Gust of 42 mph recorded at the airport whats the highest on your station so far kman? as i dont entirely trust the airport guage entirely lol
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You know I don't like you. LOL
Pressure in East End still at 995mb.
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Wow, 39 mph gust and steady in the 30s now
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Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks, yeah just got that myself. Good thing too as we will likely have gusts to TS force throughout the day. Looks like another system may be trying to organize nearby.
You know I don't like you. LOL
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Usually when a tropical storm moves away or departs an area it takes the energy (thunderstorms) with it. Not in this case as the thunderstorms are getting heavier in the Caribbean Sea, Another sign that we aren't done yet!
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2329. Grothar
Quoting juniort:
good morning everyone...is anyone seeing this area east of the Windward islands, looks like convection is increasing


This one? Looks possible.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27103
yeah they just announced it on cay 27
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So far here in the Keys, the worst situation is the IHOP parking lot full of standing water....no rootie tootie today!

Love to Jamaica...try to stay safe.
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2325. divdog
Quoting stillwaiting:
.....frances and jeanne were x-majors,and were strong tropical storms....td16 is not even close.....oh yea the cocks about 50 miles east of key west(transitioning to sub tropical as we speak imo
I was windering myself about a subtropical scenario. Not a lot of intense t'storms sround the center and displacement of all the storms to the east along with highest winds far removed from the center. If it smells like one .. maybe it is or will be soon.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Morning Kman, just received a message on my BB that MOE has decided to close all schools.


Thanks, yeah just got that myself. Good thing too as we will likely have gusts to TS force throughout the day. Looks like another system may be trying to organize nearby.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Right now the wind is 22 mph out of the SSW. Pressure 997 mbs and rising slowly.

Daybreak just said they have NO information about schools so supposedly they are open. The weather is worse today than yesterday. Go figure.
Morning Kman, just received a message on my BB that MOE has decided to close all schools.
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Another round of very heavy weather coming in from the SW any moment now. Just heard that Cayman Prep is closed today.

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Hot and cold running temperatures in Los Angeles! What weather.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
On one serious note for those East Coast Florida people. Still take this serious as you still could loose power from down lines. I know in Tampa i lost power for 4 freaking days in 2004 from downgraded Hurricanes that was slight stronger than this. Lose of power is no fun for that extended period of time. TRUST ME!
.....frances and jeanne were x-majors,and were strong tropical storms....td16 is not even close.....oh yea the coc about 50 miles east of key west(transitioning to sub tropical as we speak imo
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2316. juniort
good morning everyone...is anyone seeing this area east of the Windward islands, looks like convection is increasing
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2315. roleli
Not waning here in Kingston Jamaica,if anything it has gotten worse.
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I was just going to refer to the NHC comment of the center becoming less defined and the relocation to the south of the 5am advisory. Good call divdog!!!

As in most developing systems the centers can reform anywhere in the area where heavy thunderstorms form.

We may all learn alot on how a tropical system develops.
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I'm a bit surprised to hear a helicopter this morning in Miami. It's not too windy yet, though.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hey,kmanislander check out east of barbados seemb that invest wants to get itself together too mmmmmmmmm. interesting days ahead


Saw that but no vorticity at the 850 mb level as yet. No immediate threat IMO
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2309. lweetz
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Well, if the ducks ain't happy, then time to take action! lol. When was the last time the lake rose to that level?


Its been several years since the lake has come up this high, this fast. I'm sure the water management is pumping out as quickly as they can. The grass carp will be happy, they can just come up & graze
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I think the centre is relocating further south again.
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Quoting TarheelNMiami:

The schools are open in Dade and Broward.
Open in Monroe as well...we received an automated message last night from the school saying "they were in contact with the NWS and there are no significant risks" so the school is open...funny though 'cause they only have a half-day today anyways...
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Amazing view on the water vapor loop for the GOM & NW Carib shot. Super dry and stable from Houston to Cancun, and the biggest blob of convection I've seen from Cozumel to Jamaica to the Bahamas.
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Quoting matilda101:
If you look at the overall view of the Caribbean it seems that the center of TD16 is still organizing just south of the Isle of Youth and the Cayman Islands. Curved bands of heavy thunderstorms are forming @ satellite.

If what I say is correct then TD16 looks better organized now than anytime since it was declared a deppression


I'm also noticing something going on there, wondering if the center is relocating again.
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In Jamaica there may be an disaster worse than in Mexico. Floods are reported in Santiago de Cuba and parts of central Cuba. Pilon radar observes three bands crossing Jamaica and Cuba.

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2303. 7544
Quoting matilda101:
If you look at the overall view of the Caribbean it seems that the center of TD16 is still organizing just south of the Isle of Youth and the Cayman Islands. Curved bands of heavy thunderstorms are forming @ satellite.

If what I say is correct then TD16 looks better organized now than anytime since it was declared a deppression


995 south of cuba and falling this just might have enough time to get named nicole now that the center is further south at 11 am
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2302. divdog
Quoting matilda101:
If you look at the overall view of the Caribbean it seems that the center of TD16 is still organizing just south of the Isle of Youth and the Cayman Islands. Curved bands of heavy thunderstorms are forming @ satellite.

If what I say is correct then TD16 looks better organized now than anytime since it was declared a deppression


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA
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2301. divdog
One of the ugliest tropical depressions I have seen in a while. Looks like NHC is right in saying the center is becoming less well defined. Most of the rain may stay off to the east. Maybe just a td the whole rest of the time.
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If you look at the overall view of the Caribbean it seems that the center of TD16 is still organizing just south of the Isle of Youth and the Cayman Islands. Curved bands of heavy thunderstorms are forming @ satellite.

If what I say is correct then TD16 looks better organized now than anytime since it was declared a deppression
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Quoting kimoskee:
Schools closed and children happy.
Serious situations happening across the island. Reports of bridges washed out, landslides, flooding.

Rain still coming down.

Kingston 8, Jamaica

Sadly, a fatality has been reported on Nationwide news.
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hey,kmanislander check out east of barbados seemb that invest wants to get itself together too mmmmmmmmm. interesting days ahead
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
It seems like another surface low is located SW of us here in GCM


Wind gusts in the high 20s on the South side of the island.
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It seems like another surface low is located SW of us here in GCM
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looks like otto looks to be headed to South Florida insteaad of the west coast. trough is supposed to be pretty strong for a long time
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Quoting TarheelNMiami:

The schools are open in Dade and Broward.


The blog is thankful for that. :)

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2291. WxLogic
For now... the major models (GFS and ECMWF) are still forecasting unsettle WX in the NW Carib with 1 or 2 additional disturbances attempting to develop late this week/weekend into next week. Still plenty of energy left over in the Caribbean.

GFS still forecasting favorable MJO conditions:



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Quoting kimoskee:
Schools closed and children happy.
Serious situations happening across the island. Reports of bridges washed out, landslides, flooding.

Rain still coming down.

Kingston 8, Jamaica


I have a friend there in Jamaica on vacation all week at Sandals. Good thing he's with his girl. At least they can make the best of it cooped up inside their room all week.
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2289. lweetz
Hi all! I'm in North Lauderdale & the lake I live on is just starting to creep up into the grass. Time for sand bags? The ducks don't even look happy....LOL
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The entire NW Caribbean is fertile ground for development now. Look at how widespread the vorticity is.

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Quoting StormHype:
Are the S FL kiddies in school or did they get the day off?

The schools are open in Dade and Broward.
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Are the S FL kiddies in school or did they get the day off?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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