TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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I'm sure there will be NO schools closing here in South Florida until Nicole is a official tropical storm. I suggest checking with the school boards web page in your area when the storm is officially named.I know here in Martin County they will not close anything unless there is a tropical storm and a tropical storm warning.
It is wait and see down here
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
One local met just said that in addition to the 6" of rain that has fallen in the Cocoa, FL area another 6" or more may still fall by tomorrow evening. Well, that is one way to bust our drought here in Brevard.


I was in that mess today, the bcc cocoa campus. The water on campus was over the ankle. I dread tomorrows trip
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TD-16 IR Loop




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Quoting JLPR2:


Impressive, I dont remember any TD being that deep.


Heat, energy, broadness....though really I would give it a name now.
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Quoting leo305:


eh that's now what CBS4 said..

they said if the center is west of dade county goes through western dade, it's likely miami will receive 40-60mph winds, and the heaviest weather, but if the center is east of south florida, miami wont see any tropical storm force winds.. sustained at least..
LEO305, think I'm crazy now about this possibly having some subtropical characteristics? I was saying the other day how we need to see if it becomes tropical or subtropical and you told me there was no way a subtropical system could develop in the carribean this time of year. I wasn't saying one was, I was just suggesting that since there is a frontal boundry involved in the development that there was a chance of subtropical characterisitics. Not trying to start a debate or get on you, just a little friendly chatter. By the way, where in the 305 are you, I'm in the 954 in Deerfield Beach.
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21.117N 82.550W 997.9 mb
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Quoting HellaGoose:
Does the center seem to be relocating SW near Gran C. to anyone else?


center is spinning down towards the South west, then south, then south east, and then eventually beginning to gather up convection and move northeast, the "center" is spinning around a broader area of low pressure, and headed for the area of lowest pressure and most convergence
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Levi, just wondering when it goes over Cuba won't that disrupt it quit a bit? I have heard folks talk about storms that cross Cuba and say it hurts them. Will this be the case to? TIA
sheri


Yeah if it was a hurricane, but since it is a weak, broad system, Cuba won't do much if anything to it at all. By the time it starts crossing Cuba it will be accelerating at a good clip anyway so the trip will not take that long. There is no major core to disrupt and therefore pressures will just continue lowering within the storm and it will keep getting better organized as it crosses Cuba and Florida.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Have your cake and eat it too... North, SC


in North, SC...they only issue marriage licenses for 1st cousins...or closer...
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Watching some thunderstorms develop and build near and over the circulation center now for the first time all day. Going to watch to see whether this trend continues in the coming hours as this could signal a strengthening with the depression into a tropical storm. In addition, the circulation appears to be strengthening and tightening some in the past hour.
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Tropical Storm Warnings Posted For Florida CoastUPDATED 5 PM EDT, September 28, 2010UPDATED By WeatherBug Sr. Meteorologist, James WestRelated Content:Animated Sateliite Image
Florida Rainfall Outlook
Forecast Track
Current Position
Watches and Warnings
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Tropical Depression 16 has formed over the northwestern Caribbean and will head toward the Florida Coast Wednesday afternoon, likely as Tropical Storm Nicole. As it sweeps by the Sunshine State, it will bring flooding downpours and gusty winds. The East Coast will also see downpours from this system Thursday.


Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted throughout the Cayman Islands, central Cuba, northwestern and central Bahamas and the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to East Cape Sable, Florida, including the Florida Keys.


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for both of Florida`s coast north of the warning area.


As of 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Depression 16 is located near 21.5 N, 82.4 W, or about 115 miles south of Havana, Cuba, and 330 miles south-southwest of Miami, Fla. Current winds are about 35 mph and it is currently moving to the north-northeast at 10 mph. Its central pressure is 999 mb or 29.50 inches.


The tropical depression will move to the north-northeast over the next 24 hours, crossing central Cuba and moving into the Florida Strait early Wednesday. By that time, it will begin to move much quicker to the north-northeast as the same elongated front bringing today`s East Coast severe storm soaks up the system. It will zip up the coast Thursday, quickly losing its tropical characteristics as it pushes up the Eastern Seaboard.


Although it won`t grow into a hurricane, it will still pack a punch. Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph and tropical downpours will hit Cuba and Jamaica today and tonight, with south Florida and the Bahamas seeing this weather through Wednesday. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The Southeast and East coasts will see downpours from the combined tropical system and front on Thursday and early Friday.


The highest rainfall totals will be found in Cuba, Jamaica, southern Florida and the northern and central Bahamas, where 5 to 10 inches of rain will fall by Thursday. Higher amounts, up to 20 inches, are possible in the Cuba and Jamaica mountains. This will trigger flash flooding and in mountainous areas of Jamaica and Cuba, mudslides.


The East Coast will also see anywhere from 2 to 4 inches Thursday and Friday as the rainmaker moves north along the front. Coastal Carolinas could see rainfall totals exceed 6 inches.


Flood Watches are in effect for south Florida, including Miami and across northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings are expected today and Thursday.


Residents in Florida and along the East Coast should keep a close eye on this storm.


WeatherBug Meteorologists will be watching the tropics, so be sure to check back for the latest updates. In addition, you can get the latest updates anywhere on Twitter at WeatherBug WeatherBuzz
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Steadily decreasing. Down to 997.9mb.

222800 2109N 08239W 9767 00189 9979 240 225 070010 010 000 000 03
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Neat.

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720. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A persistent pressure of 998mb is currently being found by Recon.

16L still has a broad...very broad actually circulation.

000
URNT15 KNHC 282217
AF302 01GGA INVEST HDOB 43 20100928
220830 2101N 08116W 9768 00193 9986 +233 +205 124011 012 /// /// 03
220900 2101N 08119W 9766 00193 9986 +235 +206 124012 012 /// /// 03
220930 2101N 08121W 9769 00191 9985 +235 +209 131012 012 /// /// 03
221000 2100N 08123W 9768 00192 9985 +236 +211 135012 012 /// /// 03
221030 2100N 08125W 9768 00192 9985 +233 +214 144010 011 /// /// 03
221100 2100N 08127W 9765 00193 9984 +229 +215 139010 010 /// /// 03
221130 2100N 08130W 9768 00192 9984 +232 +214 143010 010 /// /// 03
221200 2100N 08132W 9766 00192 9984 +220 +213 140009 009 /// /// 03
221230 2100N 08134W 9769 00190 9984 +229 +210 130007 007 /// /// 03
221300 2100N 08136W 9769 00191 9984 +234 +208 138007 007 /// /// 03
221330 2100N 08138W 9767 00192 9984 +232 +209 134006 006 /// /// 03
221400 2100N 08140W 9765 00193 9984 +235 +211 130007 007 /// /// 03
221430 2100N 08142W 9768 00191 9983 +236 +213 132006 006 /// /// 03
221500 2100N 08145W 9766 00192 9984 +235 +216 127007 008 /// /// 03
221530 2059N 08147W 9768 00191 9983 +236 +218 118008 009 /// /// 03
221600 2059N 08149W 9769 00190 9984 +235 +220 111008 009 /// /// 03
221630 2059N 08151W 9767 00191 9985 +210 //// 109010 011 /// /// 05
221700 2059N 08153W 9766 00192 9983 +233 +218 106011 011 /// /// 03
221730 2059N 08156W 9763 00193 9984 +195 //// 095011 012 /// /// 05
221800 2059N 08158W 9758 00198 9983 +219 +209 082006 013 /// /// 03
$$
;


Impressive, I dont remember any TD being that deep.
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Quoting presslord:



...and ya gotta pick one...or the other...


Why? You all look alike. ;>)
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Levi, just wondering when it goes over Cuba won't that disrupt it quit a bit? I have heard folks talk about storms that cross Cuba and say it hurts them. Will this be the case to? TIA
sheri


Since the circulation is so broad, friction with land may actually help to tighten it. That is typically the initial response of a tropical system making landfall. Just not sure if there's enough land there, with respect to the size of the low to make much of a difference.
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Quoting presslord:



...and ya gotta pick one...or the other...


Have your cake and eat it too... North, SC
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ya didn't just do that Levi, did ya!!? ;)


Lol, actually, if the center goes over your house, you're probably good, at least if you're in Florida. The worst weather will be east and north of the center. In the Carolinas you would worry about the path of the center more.
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One local met just said that in addition to the 6" of rain that has fallen in the Cocoa, FL area another 6" or more may still fall by tomorrow evening. Well, that is one way to bust our drought here in Brevard.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Good news for you.. is Palm Beach county will likely cancel school at 11pm, their waiting intill the last minute.



I doubt that. They can't notify the public of a change at 11 PM. That would be outrageous. Firstly because more than half of the public isn't even awake at that time.

They usually note the changes at around 5 -6. I doubt they will make any changes now, it's too late.
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A persistent pressure of 998mb is currently being found by Recon.

16L still has a broad...very broad actually circulation.

000
URNT15 KNHC 282217
AF302 01GGA INVEST HDOB 43 20100928
220830 2101N 08116W 9768 00193 9986 +233 +205 124011 012 /// /// 03
220900 2101N 08119W 9766 00193 9986 +235 +206 124012 012 /// /// 03
220930 2101N 08121W 9769 00191 9985 +235 +209 131012 012 /// /// 03
221000 2100N 08123W 9768 00192 9985 +236 +211 135012 012 /// /// 03
221030 2100N 08125W 9768 00192 9985 +233 +214 144010 011 /// /// 03
221100 2100N 08127W 9765 00193 9984 +229 +215 139010 010 /// /// 03
221130 2100N 08130W 9768 00192 9984 +232 +214 143010 010 /// /// 03
221200 2100N 08132W 9766 00192 9984 +220 +213 140009 009 /// /// 03
221230 2100N 08134W 9769 00190 9984 +229 +210 130007 007 /// /// 03
221300 2100N 08136W 9769 00191 9984 +234 +208 138007 007 /// /// 03
221330 2100N 08138W 9767 00192 9984 +232 +209 134006 006 /// /// 03
221400 2100N 08140W 9765 00193 9984 +235 +211 130007 007 /// /// 03
221430 2100N 08142W 9768 00191 9983 +236 +213 132006 006 /// /// 03
221500 2100N 08145W 9766 00192 9984 +235 +216 127007 008 /// /// 03
221530 2059N 08147W 9768 00191 9983 +236 +218 118008 009 /// /// 03
221600 2059N 08149W 9769 00190 9984 +235 +220 111008 009 /// /// 03
221630 2059N 08151W 9767 00191 9985 +210 //// 109010 011 /// /// 05
221700 2059N 08153W 9766 00192 9983 +233 +218 106011 011 /// /// 03
221730 2059N 08156W 9763 00193 9984 +195 //// 095011 012 /// /// 05
221800 2059N 08158W 9758 00198 9983 +219 +209 082006 013 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol. I guess it has to be bombing out to be strengthening.


Levi, just wondering when it goes over Cuba won't that disrupt it quit a bit? I have heard folks talk about storms that cross Cuba and say it hurts them. Will this be the case to? TIA
sheri
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Quoting K8eCane:
ya got NORTH carolina and ya got SOUTH carolina



...and ya gotta pick one...or the other...
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Don't forget North, South Carolina.


yeah...that is that area north of myrtle beach...where the line seems to disappear...roflmbo
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reading 10 minutes ago from HH at 20.983N 81.883W was 998.3 mb
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Quoting K8eCane:
ya got NORTH carolina and ya got SOUTH carolina


Don't forget North, South Carolina.
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looking at the floater, seems to me that the center is moving slightly southward
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Quoting Hurricanes101:




How about that track?


I think a nudge farther west. Think about where pressures are going to be lowering the most underneath that frontal boundary, and then think about how the trough is diving into Alabama trying to phase in that low pressure.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


You know how this blog works

If there is not an eye by tonight, it will be RIP LOL
That's for sure.
If it's still a depression at 11 then there's going to be serious depression on this blog.
.
.
.
Especially if they decide to keep the schools open!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5685
recon found east winds at 20.8, how can the center be at 21.5?
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ya got NORTH carolina and ya got SOUTH carolina
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


my concern is almost every system keeps inching west this year from the "expected" tracks...just makin sure i have extra batteries for the game boy roflmbo


Unless there is a drastic shift to the track, we will be on the left side of this storm. All the wind and squally weather is on the SE side. We'll still have the potential to get 3-4 inches of rain here in Charleston, but I just don't see the wind impact here.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
from sunsentinal at 5:00 pm
"Broward district administrators said they will continue to monitor weather reports. Sustained wind speeds must reach 40 mph before school are closed, officials said.


not in Charleston, they close the bridges at 40mph winds....and since the whole area is nothing but bridges over rivers and tidal areas....well...needless to say
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Quoting weatherman12345:
from sunsentinal at 5:00 pm
"Broward district administrators said they will continue to monitor weather reports. Sustained wind speeds must reach 40 mph before school are closed, officials said.
How about for Dade? And, does the system need to have 40mph winds or do 40mph sustained winds need to be felt in that specific county?
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"the Carolinas"!!!!!!


Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Levi32:


Hey now last I heard you need the rain =P


we just got pounded with rain...actually filled up a kiddie pool in my back yard and it wasn't even down from the time it started... flipped over about 6 hours into the rain
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Thanks Levi. and I agree the "track" you posted is pretty awesome.
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Quoting Levi32:


Hey now last I heard you need the rain =P


that was before yesterday, dude...we're good now ; )
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I think I figured out the pressure at GC vs at the center strangeness. At 4pm, recon was pretty close to GC and pressure readings were 1000+.

Weather stations were reading 998 that time, so the extrapolated surface pressure is off by 2mb as calibration.

Something to consider.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
So is there school tomorrow for Palm Beach County?



Glad that it's not just my eyes....I thought it was only me seeing that!!
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Quoting charlottefl:
Current steering setup:



I'm reading another shift to the left in it's future...
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Quoting presslord:


...gggrrrr...


Well who didn't see that coming a mile away...

;-)
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