TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Minimum central pressure found:

223230 2114N 08259W 9770 00184 9977 +240 +230 060018 019 006 000 03


that is south and west of their 5pm position
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The longer range global models show a monster cold front sweeping into the GOM within a couple weeks.... looks like the fat lady is warming up soon for the 2010 season.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah if it was a hurricane, but since it is a weak, broad system, Cuba won't do much if anything to it at all. By the time it starts crossing Cuba it will be accelerating at a good clip anyway so the trip will not take that long. There is no major core to disrupt and therefore pressures will just continue lowering within the storm and it will keep getting better organized as it crosses Cuba and Florida.

Alos it is expected to cross over the thinnest part of Cuba which will not disrput the system as much.
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Quoting Patrap:
Max say's..Its Just a Jump!..to da "Left"..


Very nice Pat:-)
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Minimum central pressure found:

223230 2114N 08259W 9770 00184 9977 +240 +230 060018 019 006 000 03
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Quoting presslord:


I have to visit it now. Chapin, is a neat town. It has been built up a lot since my sister moved there in 1996.
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Quoting Levi32:
I know we are already dealing with a storm and there's lots going on, but keep an eye on this thing in the central Atlantic. It means trouble for the southeast US down the road, possibly bigger trouble than Nicole.



yea I have seen a few models putting it in the Bahamas next week as a pretty decent system; with a ridge building to its north at that time
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Only a few miles to the east here in Merritt Island, I have had "only" 2.01" so far... still raining.


we live in cape canaveral, drop my daughter off at bcc everyday. going over that one huge bridge was scary. still raining heavy here. it needs to pause so the dog can go for a walk
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774. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM
PRESSURE. INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR
MORE OF THE CENTER...............


Not sure it even matters where the center is......
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Press, ya ever been to North of due west, South Carolina?
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997.7 mb
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


ummmm orca....ummmm....several of those models are pointed to me...mind changing em for me?
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Hey Sammywhammy look up. Another dark cloud headed towards us!
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I know we are already dealing with a storm and there's lots going on, but keep an eye on this sneaky devil in the central Atlantic. It means trouble for the southeast US down the road, possibly bigger trouble than Nicole.

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I knew a "weak,Broad" once,,,but man could she dance...!!!
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Quoting oceanblues32:
so why did max mayfield show a bunch of models that has the center moving up the middle of florida on the 530 news? if that is the case will we see more rain and higher winds here in broward county i am basically on the ocean so i am coincerned




Remember Bonnie ? That's prolly all we get out of this one ,LO freekin L :)
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Quoting K8eCane:




The ground here is saturated and beyond
The HPC is forecasting for South Carolina to receive almost 8 inches of rain during the next 3 days. Add that to an already saturated ground, you're bound to get flooding.

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Presslord- Mail.
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NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah if it was a hurricane, but since it is a weak, broad system, Cuba won't do much if anything to it at all. By the time it starts crossing Cuba it will be accelerating at a good clip anyway so the trip will not take that long. There is no major core to disrupt and therefore pressures will just continue lowering within the storm and it will keep getting better organized as it crosses Cuba and Florida.


Levi~~ Thanks for the answer. I just didn't know. I appreciate it.
sheri
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Max say's..Its Just a Jump!..to da "Left"..
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Quoting flcoopercrew:


I was in that mess today, the bcc cocoa campus. The water on campus was over the ankle. I dread tomorrows trip


Only a few miles to the east here in Merritt Island, I have had "only" 2.01" so far... still raining.
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Quoting avthunder:
He said the models were trending to the left/west.
Oops - Max Mayfield, that is.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Nah, I agree. Sure, they'll be some wind, but nothing compared to the affects of the rain...even if it's only 3 or 4 inches. We've had upwards of 7 the past 3 days, so flash flooding now a concern. And the entire month of September was bone dry...go figure.


And, if we want to get technical, the rain we receive tonight and tomorrow isn't really directly going to be associated with the TD. The front that went through here yesterday that brough all the heavy rain is stalled just offshore. The SE winds ahead of the TD is going to set up a kind of overunning setup for coastal SC. The front will most likely "back" into the eastern half of the state late tomorrow, so that is where we may get more convective rains as the TD moves closer. Either way, it spells another heavy rain event for folks east of I-95. Flooding will be the main concern.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That really doesn't mean anything though. You'll probably still get soaked and gusts may get close to hurricane force regardless of the cyclone being tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical.




The ground here is saturated and beyond
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Quoting breald:


Press, have you been to North, SC?
I want to visit North, SC when I visit my sister in Chapin.
been there several times...and i have a good friend who's a priest in Chapin...
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He said the models were trending to the left/west.
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting K8eCane:
2 pm thursday IT is on top of me but certainly post tropical
That really doesn't mean anything though. You'll probably still get soaked and gusts may get close to hurricane force regardless of the cyclone being tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical.
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Quoting presslord:


in North, SC...they only issue marriage licenses for 1st cousins...or closer...


Press, have you been to North, SC?
I want to visit North, SC when I visit my sister in Chapin.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's because it's going to be near the border....lol. North Carolina will likely get the worst anyway being on the east side of the system.


yea....I kinda suspect there may be a role for Portlight up there...especially if there's great flooding...
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2 pm thursday IT is on top of me but certainly post tropical
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Quoting presslord:


Stop it!!


Sowwy..but that's how I roll you know.
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Quoting presslord:
predicitng a storm to hit 'the Carolinas' is like saying you're gonna visit the coast of Alaska...it helps to narrow it down a bit...


Kinda like the Louisiana Purchase before the signing..

It was all Cajun Country up to Canada...including Michigan,,Mizz,Ill,Ark,,so on and so ferth.


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Quoting Patrap:


Stop it!!
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Quoting presslord:
predicitng a storm to hit 'the Carolinas' is like saying you're gonna visit the coast of Alaska...it helps to narrow it down a bit...


That's because it's going to be near the border....lol. North Carolina will likely get the worst anyway being on the east side of the system.
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742. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think it has more to do with the surrounding pressures being lower than normal as opposed to the cyclone actually being that deep. This is something that is typically seen in the Western Pacific, but has been introduced to the western Caribbean due to the monsoonal set-up, if you will.


Quoting Levi32:


Heat, energy, broadness....though really I would give it a name now.


Yeah, it is a huge circulation.
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so why did max mayfield show a bunch of models that has the center moving up the middle of florida on the 530 news? if that is the case will we see more rain and higher winds here in broward county i am basically on the ocean so i am coincerned
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Quoting presslord:


in North, SC...they only issue marriage licenses for 1st cousins...or closer...


After seeing that video of the lady from there last night, I have no doubt of that.

;-)
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predicitng a storm to hit 'the Carolinas' is like saying you're gonna visit the coast of Alaska...it helps to narrow it down a bit...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Impressive, I dont remember any TD being that deep.
I think it has more to do with the surrounding pressures being lower than normal as opposed to the cyclone actually being that deep. This is something that is typically seen in the Western Pacific, but has been introduced to the western Caribbean due to the monsoonal set-up, if you will.
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Quoting presslord:


in North, SC...they only issue marriage licenses for 1st cousins...or closer...


HaHa...I never heard of this place
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I'm sure there will be NO schools closing here in South Florida until Nicole is a official tropical storm. I suggest checking with the school boards web page in your area when the storm is officially named.I know here in Martin County they will not close anything unless there is a tropical storm and a tropical storm warning.
It is wait and see down here
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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