TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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Quoting StormHype:


Sounds like the "Hokie Pokie" LOL


It is pokie getting its developemnt together, but those rainfall amounts are very hokie, just down right scary!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope :)
I would say the Carols are gonna get wet... or East Alabama as it is commonly referred to on here.


=P
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
South Florida Schools will be Closed tommorow:

Tonight: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 76. Windy, with a east wind between 13 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. East wind 29 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy, with a west wind between 17 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.




With those kind of winds you could take an eye out !!!!!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Stationary:

If the latest center position was to the southwest of the other one, it wouldn't be stationary.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Florida is at High Risk this October as is the east coast all the way up to the Carolina's.

Expect at least one more system to affect Florida and the East Coast


BTW, that was late October and it wasn't 40 degrees after it went through. I was low 60s in SW and S FL. Thank God, cause the power was out with no A/C.
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Quoting Patrap:


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC




Stop it!!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Orca...any chance you gonna change those models saying the chas, sc region?


Nope :)
I would say the Carols are gonna get wet... or East Alabama as it is commonly referred to on here.
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Graphical Forecasts - Mid Atlantic
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Quoting StormHype:


LOL... good luck betting on that one sonny. You better study for that test.

LOL
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Quoting cloudy0day:


But you know what comes next for the models...a step to the right, lol


Sounds like the "Hokie Pokie" LOL
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Hurricane Hunters are departing Tropical Depression 16 with no noted tropical storm force winds found and very broad low pressures. Not impressed at all right now with this system. Will need to really pull something together to become a significant tropical storm before impacting South Florida tomorrow.
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Impressive IR... wow... lots of rainfall headed to the SE coast!!

Maritimes are already in the warm sector trough that will give us 2 days of soaking rains and maybe some nice thunderstorms.


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Quoting StormHype:


LOL... good luck betting on that one sonny. You better study for that test.


actually if those gusts verify, he is right
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That 00z QPF is ugly. I can't fathom anywhere from 8 inches to upwards of a foot of water anywhere here in the low country.
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The Weatherchannel says most models are pointing at West Florida right now.....What do you experts think where Nicole will make landfall? (direct hit)

I'm from Amsterdam (The Netherlands) and i'm for a holiday in Cape Coral, Fl.

Thanks!!!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
South Florida Schools will be Closed tommorow:

Tonight: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 76. Windy, with a east wind between 13 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. East wind 29 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy, with a west wind between 17 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.



LOL... good luck betting on that one sonny. You better study for that test.
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Quoting Patrap:
Max say's..Its Just a Jump!..to da "Left"..


But you know what comes next for the models...a step to the right, lol
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Quoting presslord:
Jeff Masters said he thinks there's a 40% chance that it'll never be named...


but that means there is a 60% chance that it will....hmmmm....like saying there is a 30% chance of pop ups in the summer here...u KNOW it is gonna rain!
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We can only hope these early season deep diving troughs shield NA in October. 16 going to be a fast mover so hoepefully all the post rain will not cause too much issue.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


My bet is at 11pm Schools will close.


Agreed...I don't see them risking the school buses being on the road. Too much liability for a just in case scenario
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21.283N 83.517W 997.0 mb
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Quoting presslord:


Stop it!!


Not before I stir the pot. I lived in the North Carolina and came down to the South Carolina seven years ago. Will never forget that first morning when we went to the local convenience store to get milk and eggs. The sales clerks were so sweet and kind I truly had tears in my eyes.

Yes, there's a HUGE difference! 'Course, we had to move next door to a family from the North Carolina. . . .

Ktnxbai! (Hope I got that right. I'm trying to get fluent in LOLcatese.)

Srsly, as my Texan husband will probably say tonight, "this storm looks like a frog-strangler." LOL! He just arrived home bearing numerous jugs of water!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is south and west of their 5pm position


just as expected.. it's spinning around the broad circulation until it develops its tight core, and it should tonight, as it should spin towards the south east around the broad circulation into more favorable conditions/more moisture
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting RobbWilder:


It was a monster cold front that brought 40 degree temps to SOUTH florida in Mid October that also brought Wilma. It aint over till its over.


Ah, but that was what pushed Wilma through S FL. I was in Marco Island and remember it well, and the cold rain on the back side of the eye.

However, once that front is through the area, bringing all its dry and stable air, the GOM is dead for TS formation for a solid 10 days.
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ANZ088-290300-
CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY W.
.WED...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT FAR SW PART
10 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 1000 FM.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT FAR W
PART BECOMING N 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT.
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SW. SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY W.
.THU...S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO S TO SW 20 TO 25
KT...EXCEPT FAR W PART N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY. SEAS 10
TO 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TAPERING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.FRI...S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT W PORTION BECOMING
VARIABLE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...WINDS BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
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Orca...any chance you gonna change those models saying the chas, sc region?
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Jeff Masters said he thinks there's a 40% chance that it'll never be named...
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Quoting nash28:


Very nice Pat:-)
Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to be jogging around.
Td 16 really hasn't moved at all based on visible images
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Quoting Levi32:


A while means days.


I think they were referring to TD 16, not the area in the CATL

wait nevermind lol
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Quoting weatherman12345:
like when? not tonight


A while means days.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is south and west of their 5pm position
Looks to be jogging around.
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Here in Palm City, Fl. rain is picking up, becoming more steady. Breeze picking up as well.
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Quoting StormHype:
The longer range global models show a monster cold front sweeping into the GOM within a couple weeks.... looks like the fat lady is warming up soon for the 2010 season.


It was a monster cold front that brought 40 degree temps to SOUTH florida in Mid October that also brought Wilma. It aint over till its over.
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official schools in Miami Dade county will be open tomorrow.
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Quoting StormHype:
The longer range global models show a monster cold front sweeping into the GOM within a couple weeks.... looks like the fat lady is warming up soon for the 2010 season.


absolutely not, a cold front does not end the season

if that were the case then Ida would have never happened
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Quoting nash28:


Very nice Pat:-)


TYVM nash...
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If this keeps moving the track west it will be getting closer to Belle Glade and Lake Okeechobee area and those are not the best areas for all this rain. The dikes are in very poor shape. They have been keeping the lake low for the past few years on purpose to help the strain on the dikes. The COE is probably sweeting a little.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

when do you think this will get named


Not for a while.
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Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Minimum central pressure found:

223230 2114N 08259W 9770 00184 9977 +240 +230 060018 019 006 000 03


that is south and west of their 5pm position
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.