TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.

Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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Quoting Skyepony:
Tornado warning Brevard county, FL. Maybe coming at me. GFDL has a cat 1 for me this time tomorrow..
Is this storm going to become a hurricane?
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this sounds bad for us tonight
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Quoting pilotguy1:

Everything California stands for.

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Its of no consequence but ex-Julia's at it again...:) 34N 68W

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Quoting cat5hurricane:
At this point there would be no reason to think anywhere east of I-95 is going to see anything under 3 inches. Boy I HOPE I'm wrong!

He's west. An NTI student. He's been getting rain for awhile but nothing too bad yet.
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Any comments of the following:
The 18Z GFDL,have this cyclone around 67 knots approaching South Florida this at almost Hurricane strength,I wonder if we can have a surprise? once it crossed Cuba and get into the very warm waters of the florida straits.
Thank you
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1171. NCSaint
Quoting cat5hurricane:
At this point there would be no reason to think anywhere east of I-95 is going to see anything under 3 inches. Boy I HOPE I'm wrong! We've been drenched the past 72 hours with up to 7 inches by me.

If the models hold (which they have so far) there's no reason to think east of I-95 doesn't see 5+ inches from Wilmington north
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1169. nash28
Quoting cat5hurricane:
At this point there would be no reason to think anywhere east of I-95 is going to see anything under 3 inches. Boy I HOPE I'm wrong! We've been drenched the past 72 hours with up to 7 inches by me.

Models still show "Nicole" rolling right thru Charleston then up the coast. Between the frontal boundary and this system, we could get a ridiculous amount of water.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't not like them myself...

I'm partially impartial to the double negative, the vagaries of the English language notwithstanding ;)
Member Since: June 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
1158. GoWVU
I got almost 6 inches of rain in my backyard on Sunday and Monday here in Goose Creek. Just got all the extra water out of my pool this evening, dont know how much more we can take here with out not so good things happening in the Charleston/Berk/Dorchester county areas.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Why do they keep referring to the Carribean low as monsoonal? I understand how the monsoon works in India and the SWest America but have never heard that thrm in the Carribean. Can anyone enlighten me?

Been asking this myself for days on this blog, and no-one answers. It seems as his blog suggest above, Dr. Masters and others on Wikipedia are coining a new weather term, "Monsoon Depression." That's good enough for me. At least now, I have somewhat of an understanding as to what some are refering.

Been wet in south peninsular Florida today and in the Florida Keys but not as wet as I would have expected. We'll see what this evening brings.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop
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1155. jeebsa
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

Yeah. Glad I just sprung for a new one. The sugar sand chews mine up far too regularly. The mower brings it up right through the grass.
I see a new tornado warning in Vero right now. Interesting evening for sure.
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Tornado warning Brevard County Florida
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Quoting pilotguy1:

This might be the collapse of LA which has been long predicted by all of us in flyover country that think all things California are not sustainable.

what is all things?
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Rain, rain and more rain...

Met Service of Jamaica
September 28, 2010 – 5:00 p.m.


The Meteorological Service has extended the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely. Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.

Through today, radar reports indicate that light to moderate showers affected all parishes as well as offshore areas of the northwest and south coasts. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to peak within the next 24 hours but continue to affect the island at least until Friday.

Due to the proximity of Tropical Depression #16 northwest of Jamaica, fishers and other marine interests, particularly over northwestern and southern waters, are being advised not to venture far from port as above-normal wave heights and strong gusty winds are likely.

At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Depression #16 was located near latitude 21.5 degrees north and longitude 82.4 degrees west or about 190 kilometres south of Havana, Cuba.

The Depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 km/h. On the forecast track, the centre of the tropical cyclone will cross Cuba tonight and be near or over southeastern Florida by Wednesday afternoon. However, in this case, most of the strong winds and heavy rains are occurring a couple hundred miles to the east and southeast of the centre.

Maximum sustained winds are near 55 km/h, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and the Depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday before merging with a frontal zone on Thursday.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
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1147. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado warning Brevard county, FL. Maybe coming at me. GFDL has a cat 1 for me this time tomorrow..
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1145. NCSaint
Quoting weatherguy03:

Everytime I use the word Carolinas I think of you..LOL

I have no problem differentiating the two. Much like Florida sticks out for west-bound systems, we in North Carolina stick out for North=bound systems
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I thought the goal was to discourage the use of Caro... um, the "C" word?
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Not liking the Carolina idea. I have a son going to school there with no family around. Living on his own. Hopefully he's west enough to just get a little rain and nothing else.
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1141. marmark
Quoting Neapolitan:
In Florida:
--Broward schools definitely open tomorrow (for now)
--Palm Beach County Schools definitely open tomorrow (for now)
and Martin County open too
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1140. nash28
Quoting presslord:

you're gonna get a spanking...

Hey hey now Press....

Family site:-) LOL!
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Quoting jeebsa:
Yep no worries. keep it to the east will be fine.I might have to sharpen the mower blades.

Yeah. Glad I just sprung for a new one. The sugar sand chews mine up far too regularly. The mower brings it up right through the grass.
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1136. NRAamy
"this might be the collapse of California"....

Thanks for the encouragement.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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