TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)
Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.
Alone again, naturally

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1435. Patrap
Rain hampers rescue efforts in Mexican mudslide
Published: Tuesday, September 28, 2010, 6:43 PM Updated: Tuesday, September 28, 2010, 7:07 PM



People watch the badly damaged bridge that crosses the Macuilxochitl River near the town of Tlacolula, Mexico, on Tuesday. Rescuers trying to reach the town of Santa Maria de Tlahuitoltepec have been delayed because of the condition of the bridge. Authorities fear hundreds may have died in this community after a hillside collapsed, burying several homes.



A hillside collapsed on hundreds of sleeping residents in a rural Mexican community early Tuesday, adding to the deadly toll that weeks of heavy rains have exacted on parts of Latin America.
Rescuers trying to reach the town of Santa Maria de Tlahuitoltepec have been delayed because of the condition of the bridge. Authorities fear hundreds may have died in this community after a hillside collapsed, burying several homes.

Authorities in the town of Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec said seven people were killed in the mudslide and at least 100 were missing, but the leader of their state, Oaxaca Gov. Ulises Ruiz, reported four confirmed dead and 12 missing.

President Felipe Calderon reported on his Twitter account that an Army commander and 30 soldiers had reached the town by foot and that there was a lot of damage, but "perhaps not of the magnitude initially reported."

"We are very saddened by this tragedy, very sad but very determined to do everything in God's power to save the victims who are alive in this landslide and to help the people of Santa Maria," Calderon told reporters.

Communications with the town about 130 miles (220 kilometers) southeast of Mexico City have been difficult since the pre-dawn slide. Soldiers and civil protection and Red Cross workers couldn't reach the area for nearly 10 hours because mud and rocks and in one case a collapsed bridge blocked roads, and bad weather prevented helicopters from being used.

Donato Vargas, an official in Santa Maria de Tlahuitoltepec reached by a satellite telephone, said as many as 300 homes were believed to buried, and residents who made it out early in the morning said they had no success digging out their neighbors.

"We have been using a backhoe but there is a lot of mud. We can't even see the homes, we can't hear shouts, we can't hear anything," he said.

Vargas said the slide dragged houses packed with sleeping families some 1,300 feet (400 meters) downhill, along with cars, livestock and light poles.

"We were all sleeping and all I heard was a loud noise and when I left the house I saw that the hill had fallen," Vargas said. "We were left without electricity, without telephone and we couldn't help them. There was no way to move the mud."

One person was reported killed in a mudslide in another Oaxaca community, Villa Hidalgo, and 30 people were killed Monday in a slide in Colombia. Heavy rains, including some delivered by the remnants of Hurricane Karl and then Tropical Storm Matthew, also have produced deadly floods in southern Mexico and Central America.

Oaxaca Civil Protection operations coordinator Luis Marin said the state has seen three days straight of intense rain. The state government had warned residents south of the city of Oaxaca of flooding from overflowing rivers and opened shelters in other parts of the state.

Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, which had 9,000 residents in 2005 according to Mexican census data, is an indigenous community high in the Sierra Norte mountains known for its music and culture.

Vargas said there is another hill about to give way in another area of town.

"We are in a serious risk situation," Vargas said. "In all of our neighborhoods there are houses and roads cracked and about to fall."

Huge swaths of riverside communities in southern Mexico were still under water Tuesday -- flooding exacerbated by the passage of Karl and Matthew. Before Tuesday's landslides, at least 15 deaths in Mexico were blamed on the hurricane.

In Honduras, authorities said four people, including a child, drowned in rivers and creeks swollen by Tropical Storm Matthew. The National Emergencies Commission said Tuesday that three adults died in the town of El Oregano and a 10-year-old child in the Caribbean coast town of La Lima.

In Colombia, about 30 people were killed Monday by a landslide northwest of Bogota, the capital. Many were changing from one bus to another because a mountain road was blocked, but the residents of five houses also were buried, rescue officials said.

President Juan Manuel Santos visited the scene Tuesday between the towns of Giraldo and Canasgordas in Antioquia state, northwest of Bogota. "The situation is very difficult," he told reporters as rescue teams with sniffer dogs probed tons of earth.

Witnesses described a roar as first rocks and then earth swept over the road Monday afternoon. Amateur video shows the slide bearing down and scouring away the houses.

Heavy rains in recent weeks across Colombia have triggered flooding that has claimed at least 74 lives.

By Ixtili Martinez, Associated Press writer
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
As broad lows go this takes the cake

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1433. wxhatt
Maybe a bit disorganized, but this thing covers a huge area!



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Quoting BahaHurican:
There doesn't seem to be much expectation of rain for the Bahamas. It's like we r not even here, based on the discussion...


Just watching a news report that said that the Bahamas could be on the rainy side.

Hi by the way!
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Quoting CapeFearParke:
Going to be wet week here in Wilmington! Cheers for the rain, but boo for being a lake waiting to happen.

You may get another 5-15" of rain on top of the 13" you received already and some pretty good winds.
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One of my concerns is that the storms this year have gone from almost dead or written off to organization in short period of times. That TD16 looks bad tonight, doesn't follow that it will look like that tomorrow afternoon.
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1429. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Going to be wet week here in Wilmington! Cheers for the rain, but boo for being a lake waiting to happen.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
1299. kmanhurricaneman 8:10 PM EST on September 28, 2010
i believe from analysing sat images there were three LLC's nhc has one targeted right that will be moving over cuba and into florida the other two has consolidated and is located just west of jamaica, this will be where nicole is born, movement will be to the east possible over jamaica then over the eastern most part of cuba over the T&C islands skirt the east coast of florida and into carolina's as a cat 2 hurricane, i hope iam wrong but thats my take. ps dont flame me or call me names I WILL RETALIATE....... thank you LOL


You might be right, I respect your analysis and opinion :O)!!
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There doesn't seem to be much expectation of rain for the Bahamas. It's like we r not even here, based on the discussion...
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Quoting stormpetrol:

From My guesstimate you're about 500-600feet from the sea, I'm about 200-250 feet at the most, can make a difference in wind gusts I think.


Agree. In fact I am in a bit of a fall behind the beach ridge but my anemometer is on the top of a 35 foot high mast !
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
You're advice is great information as well. Thanks for your post. Rip-currents and rainfall driven flooding can result injuries and fatalities for those that don't respect conditions.


Hi.
You and KerryinNola had asked about monsoonal stuff. A couple pages back I left you guys a quote from an earlier post by beell that has a link to a good explanation of monsoonal depression from Dr. Lyons. Hope you saw it.
:)
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Quoting InTheCone:


So far, just another rainy nite! Hope it stays that way.

Hope so too. I just checked the Nexrad for St. Pete and all there seems to be is virga. Weird. Must be because of "the Shield" j/k
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1299. kmanhurricaneman 8:10 PM EST on September 28, 2010
i believe from analysing sat images there were three LLC's nhc has one targeted right that will be moving over cuba and into florida the other two has consolidated and is located just west of jamaica, this will be where nicole is born, movement will be to the east possible over jamaica then over the eastern most part of cuba over the T&C islands skirt the east coast of florida and into carolina's as a cat 2 hurricane, i hope iam wrong but thats my take. ps dont flame me or call me names I WILL RETALIATE....... thank you LOL

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Well I guess 30mph was close enough LOL! Something just doesn't seem to be adding up with TD#16, though I suspect it will be Nicole at 11pm.


I'm downstairs now where my weather station is and winds have died down to about 13 mph out of the SE. Pressure at 999 mbs. Light rain.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I heard the wind but my weather station is at the computer downstairs and I am upstairs right now. I did go and take a look but it was gusting to about 28 at that time.

From My guesstimate you're about 500-600feet from the sea, I'm about 200-250 feet at the most, can make a difference in wind gusts I think.
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Did they fly the mission at their normal altitude? Just wondering if maybe the surface pressures are interpolated, and the wrong flight altitude got entered?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
1416. MZT
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
well borderline cat 2 i meant
Pfft. I'm not even convinced this will become a tropical storm. It may have such a weak temperature gradient that it never gets a name and just gets referred to as a coastal gale. It sure doesn't look very warm core right now.
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Kman has always been reasonable and some what reserved in his analysis so it bothers me when he says the things don't add up!
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Quoting kmanislander:


I heard the wind but my weather station is at the computer downstairs and I am upstairs right now. I did go and take a look but it was gusting to about 28 at that time.
Well I guess 30mph was close enough LOL! Something just doesn't seem to be adding up with TD#16, though I suspect it will be Nicole at 11pm.
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Quoting Proflaw:


Get real. Nobody drowns in flooded intersections in south Florida; the terrain is flatter than the proverbial pancake. To be sure water can get deep enough to kill your car's ECU, but not deep enough to drown anyone who isn't bent on suicide.

I've lived in south Dade for more than thirty years; I lived through 24 inches of rain from tropical storm Dennis in the early 80s, watched Andrew rip the roof off my house in 92, made it through the downpours of Irene, Katrina, and some nameless storms, and nobody, I repeat nobody, drowned in their car down here.

Overhyping a minor storm is just as bad as pooh-poohing a major hurricane. A poorly organized depression that may throw six inches of rain our way is a peace offering from the weather gods; when they want to kill, they know how to do it.


Yikes
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, that is about 150 miles east of the center, wind shear and the trough are keeping TD 16 discombobulated!!


Nice. discombobulated! =)
Thanks,
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Owen Roberts had a gust of 33 mph in the last hour
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1409. wxhatt
Too bad my Anemomter went down during Hurricane Earl, I won't be able to get any wind readings.
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MAN .....! I gotta smile and shake my head at the stuff i read on this blogg.
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1406. Seastep
Quoting kmanislander:


Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowehre was above 1000 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.


I am looking at the entire isobar area. That is what it is depicting, the MSLP inside that oval.

Which, again, we agree, hard to believe it was 1004mb.

Recon in that area was at 1000 most of the time. And I question that as too high also... including when it was closest to GC. Was reporting 1000.7mb contrary to surface obs.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi, Just got a wind gust probably between 30-40mph, don't what your weather station might show.Just received a notice on my bb that schools will be open tomorrow, though all my sons are grown& out of school so it doesn't really affect me any. I wonder if they realize that it won't be really bad here until tomorrow from what I'm seeing!


I heard the wind but my weather station is at the computer downstairs and I am upstairs right now. I did go and take a look but it was gusting to about 28 at that time.
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Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Hi everybody, Lake Worth here, SE Palm Beach County, FL. Winds picking up, we've already had some minor flooding tonight.
I'm looking forward to a Fay or Ernesto-type storm, we need water badly :)
However, as nash wisely said, NOOA weather radios on alert mode for possible tornadoes. For those who are new here and think this will be no big deal (I hope they are right), I warmly recommend to be safe by listing to the advisories and please, do not drive on flooded roads. Remember that TS Fay killed people who didn't heed the warnings and either went surfing or drove their vehicles to flood areas thinking there was a road beneath their car and got stuck. It's not the wind that'll be the biggest threat, it's the rip currents and flooding when you can't see where the road is and you'll might get into trouble.
Stay safe and prepared, every storm is potentially dangerous, STD, TD or a named storm will spawn unexpected tornadoes more often than than not.
Thanks for all the great info you're posting on this blog :)
Your advice is great information as well. Thanks for your post. Rip-currents and rainfall driven flooding can result injuries and fatalities for those that don't respect conditions.
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Quoting bcycsailor:


Whoa! Wonder if there are straight-line winds in that? Can't distinguish any vorticity...yet. Stay safe.


So far, just another rainy nite! Hope it stays that way.
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Quoting kmanislander:


MSLP ??. It was and has been sub 1000 mb over this entire area for about 9 hours continously now.

Hi, Just got a wind gust probably between 30-40mph, don't what your weather station might show.Just received a notice on my bb that schools will be open tomorrow, though all my sons are grown& out of school so it doesn't really affect me any. I wonder if they realize that it won't be really bad here until tomorrow from what I'm seeing!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowehre was above 1000 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.
Had a gust about 1/2 hr a go of 37 mph.
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Quoting LiveToFish0430:


parts of brevard county have received 8-9 inches of rain and it is still coming down hard there

Add 10"+ on top of that=20 inches or more is possible, not a good scenario!
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Quoting Seastep:
kman - to be perfectly clear... we agree!


Oh, ok, I will climb down from my soap box now.
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Quoting kmanislander:


MSLP ??. It was and has been sub 1000 mb over this entire area for about 9 hours continously now.


Your right running near 998 where you are....also at the bouy well east of you and also at the bouy (998) over 150 plus miles sw of the center of the 997mbTD......so you could never really find this TD's center by pressure alone, thats for sure.
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1397. wxhatt
This storm reminds me of Tropical Storm Ernesto a few years back. We had bad thunderstorms preceding and during the storm, and I remember Va. Capes and N.J. got hit hard.
Something about the trough digging in to our west that is going to super charge this in to a potent Extra Tropical Storm.

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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Just curious, what is the whole deal to the WEST of Jamaica?
Is that associated with TD 16? Is it really THAT far displaced. It looks like a 60 mph ts my itself, jajaja.
Could the center reform there? If not why not? Thanks.

Yes, that is about 150 miles east of the center, wind shear and the trough are keeping TD 16 discombobulated!!
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Quoting Proflaw:


Get real. Nobody drowns in flooded intersections in south Florida; the terrain is flatter than the proverbial pancake. To be sure water can get deep enough to kill your car's ECU, but not deep enough to drown anyone who isn't bent on suicide.

I've lived in south Dade for more than thirty years; I lived through 24 inches of rain from tropical storm Dennis in the early 80s, watched Andrew rip the roof off my house in 92, made it through the downpours of Irene, Katrina, and some nameless storms, and nobody, I repeat nobody, drowned in their car down here.

Overhyping a minor storm is just as bad as pooh-poohing a major hurricane. A poorly organized depression that may throw six inches of rain our way is a peace offering from the weather gods; when they want to kill, they know how to do it.


Unfortunately people do drown due to this type of flooding, people can drive into the canals due to the high water all around not distinguishing the banks. I've also seen people get killed by using water craft in the flood areas hit underwater structures, and others run into the low bridges, not taking into account the height of the canals.

These would be the reasons for all the warnings about staying out of the high water, both in cars and water craft.
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Quoting TOMSEFLA:
stormw banned any idea why


I know you asked that last night.

Now stop trying to stir up the blog!!!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Not trying to be a hype-caster, portions of FL may see 10+ inches of rain.


parts of brevard county have received 8-9 inches of rain and it is still coming down hard there
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1392. Seastep
kman - to be perfectly clear... we agree!
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Quoting Seastep:


Exactly what I said. ;)

Just sayin' one point does not make it, that's all.

If there were a 25% part of that area having 1020, say...

As I said, all obs I saw from that entire area was around 1000.

Remember, too, that recon was at 1000 most of its flight.


Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowhere was above 1000 to 1002 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.
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Kind of makes me wonder if the Miami NWS has the computer write their discussions ...seriously, how does a spell check program get "dew point" out of a misspelling of depression ? Or maybe its a local nickname for a monsoonal depression ?

From Miami NWS 5pm discussion
Discussion...of course main concern is the expected impacts associated with dew point 16. The NHC official forecast has this dew point developing into tropopause storm "nicole" tonight...then moving across the far Southeast Florida coast on Wednesday Wednesday evening.
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1388. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Brian Norcross is saying the TD16 is looking less organized. By looking at the satellite presentation I would have to agree.

True, however it continues to produce very cold cloud tops and plenty of heavy flooding rain, that is the main threat. And surface pressures continue to slowly fall..
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1385. Seastep
I really need to work on my blog communication skills.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.